Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 26, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Ugh. Life is hard: 20 team dynasty. Paredes or Bregman?  Ragans or Konner Griffin?  Thanks

Justin Mason: Bregman and Griffin

Rob Mackowiak: Should I keep Konnor Griffin or McGonigle as my final keeper in a 10 team OBP keeper league? Both would be $2. I’m competing but can afford to waste a final roster spot on a stash

Justin Mason: I think I would stash Griffin if I could at worst you hold him half the season, but the Pirates are saying they are going to give him a legit shot at making the team.

Moneyburg: My friend Mark doesn’t know about how good Connelly early is. Despite playing time concerns (I think Bello is traded and opens up a spot), do you think early is underrated in NFBC drafts so far?

Justin Mason: I think it’s more likely the Red Sox move Early than Bello, but I think the point stands that he is really good. I will say the value isnt that low in NFBC. He is currently going at pick 225 right about Shane McClanahan and Jack Leiter with no clear path to the rotation and if there is a trade to open a spot or he is moved, he will shoot up tremendously.

Larry Bird: Can you come and shovel my driveway?

Justin Mason: This is why I live in California now.

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Bruce: 12 tm, 5×5 OBP/QS, Keep 5 forever with a little inflation
Matt Olson – 4th round
Eury Perez 17th round

Justin Mason: Eury

Jon: Is Cade Smith a keeper for $6 in a 12T mixed 5×5 roto league with a $260 budget?

Justin Mason: absolutely he is

MattStats5: 10 team HtH categories, keep 5. BWJ, Gunnar, JRod, Churio, Skenes are how I’m leaning.  Also have Logan Webb and James Wood.  Drop anyone for either of those two? Thanks for all you do!

Justin Mason: no, that’s the five for me

John: Who’s the player who’s switched teams this offseason you’re buying the most shares in

Justin Mason: Edwin Diaz at the top end. A top tier closer going to the best team in baseball? Easy money. A couple other players later that I like:

Shane Baz, Adolis Garcia, Kazuma Okamoto

BMK: Hi, I’m in a 12 team dynasty league 6+6 (OPS and QS’s) Keep 15 mlb plus 10 MiLB. I have the #1 pick. Best available options as far as I can tell are Devin Williams, David Bednar, Abner Uribe, Nico Hoerner, Munetaka Murakami, tatsuya Imai, or Carter Jensen. Who you taking at 1?

Justin Mason: Without more context to who your keepers are, I lean Williams here. I can make the argument for Hoerner or Jensen if you have closers already or are in a two-catcher league.

Johnny: How are you planning on handling saves this season? My roto strategy has been to draft at least two and ideally three locked-in closers but is that even possible anymore at reasonable cost?

Justin Mason: It’s going to be expensive for sure, but I typically look to lock in a for sure guy, then a pretty sure guy and then take dart throws. A lot will depend on individual drafts where sometimes I come out with two for sure guys or one and a lot of dart throws.

Definitely Not Paul: I have Oneil Cruz in a 14-team dynasty points league w/ 3 OF and 2 UT spots. Is the acquisition of Jhostynxon Garcia the final nail to cement Cruz’s status as platoon player or is there still hope for more from him? Feels like a sell-low moment, but maybe this is just what he is? Toosly, whiffy, sits vs LHP. Someone will probably give me an okay SP for him in trade.

Justin Mason: I do think this is who he is, but I also know he can go on massive heaters and I would rather sell him on one of those because the return will be better. REally depends on the type of pitcher I would be getting back, but there is some upside in just waiting until the season starts and finding the right moment to move him. There’s also some risk to this strategy, but that’s what I would try and do.

Joe: Thoughts on Owen Caissie (Lassie) now that he’s in MIA from a long term perspective? Worse park and lineup around him. But more likely to get a consistent chance to play. Cubs had been developing bats ok for awhile there, but not as sure now. Does MIA have the right people to develop him? Thanks.

Justin Mason: Cassie has one of the worst hit tools of the top prospects and that is something that most players and teams struggle to fix. I just dont have faith long term. Short term, he will play.

John Concrete: What do you make of James Wood?  His second half K rate of 39%(!!!!) is scaring me off him at his ADP (30 overall)

Justin Mason: This is why he won’t likely be on any redraft teams for me. He is a 30+% strikeout guy. Doesnt make enough contact in the zone and while he doesnt chase, he also isn’t super aggressive inside the zone which leads to too many called strikes. Power is real and there is some speed too, but projecting that average is going to be difficult and I think the floor is lower than most people.

Ben: Who do like for a rebound this year out of this group:  M Harris, J Durran, A Riley.   Thanks!

Justin Mason: Durran and Riley

JT snowmaggedon: Hi Justin.  In a 12 team roto league with 3 OFs, no CI or MI.  Pick one to keep: Sale 6th, Naylor 6th, CJ Abrams 6th or Goodman 22nd.  Current keepers: Soto, JRam, JRod, Crochet, Gilbert and Woo.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: I’ll take sale

Guest: Offered Nick Pivetta for Aaron Ashby and Troy Melton. Accept the trade?

Justin Mason: I think for this year only it’s Pivetta, but I like Melton long term and since this sounds like a dynasty or keeper, I would lean him.

Prospect Time: How much would you drop on Griffin or McGonigle in an 12T OBP league with a $260 budget and limited keepers (price increases by $5 every year, can be kept up to three seasons)

Justin Mason: $5-8

Oaktown Blues: Do you think Brent Rooker has another 2024-like season in him?

Justin Mason: The average is never going to be that good again unless he gets really lucky BABIP results, but the power/speed could definitely happen in that park.

Guest: Pivetta or Pepiot? Points league, QS and Ks are king.

Justin Mason: Pepiot

Wood: 12 team cats keeper league, we keep 2 hitters and 2 pitchers with no round values attached to them. I have deGrom, Sale, Bradish, Eury. Is it as easy as deGrom and Sale or do you think about the other two at all due to age?

Justin Mason: If it’s keep forever with no price, I think I am going Eury and then either Sale or deGrom. Lean Sale, but I could go either way

4th: Who you taking with a 4th pick in an OPS redraft assuming these guys are there: Witt, Soto, Skubal, Acuna, Carroll?

Justin Mason: In order: Witt, Skubal, Soto, Carroll

Justin Mason: might even move Soto up depending on depth of the league.

ItCouldHappen: Hi Justin, fellow Californian here- happy I don’t have to shovel today! 10 team H2H Categories league with S+HLDs instead of saves. Would it be crazy to just go no closer and take high leverage guys? Who would be three to four guys you’d target for holds

Justin Mason: This is often what I do in these leagues. I tend to not worry about playing for closers and I will play the wire a ton in a 10 teamer.

Lord Thunder: Does Vientos get traded before opening day? Would it be a waste for the Mets to just stash him in Triple-A?

Justin Mason: Hard to see the fit somewhere else, but I would assume the Mets will try

Leo: Bryce Eldridge vs. Sal Stewart – who is the long-term fantasy pick?

Justin Mason: Eldridge has more upside, but Stewart has the better floor. I almost always bet on the upside in dynasty.

Oaktown Blues: What is Leo De Vries‘ offensive upside? Could he have a Jose Ramirez-like ceiling or will he max out

Justin Mason: He definitely doesn’t have the J-Ram ceiling because of the lack of speed, but I do see a good approach and a lot of power with some speed. I don’t think he’s a future first rounder, but probably a top five round pick year to year

Oaktown Blues: Should I stay away from Luis Morales because he has to pitch on Sacramento half of the time?

Justin Mason: probably

San Matty: Does Uribe take the closing role in Milwaukee? Crystal ball, please…

Justin Mason: If they trade Megill, yes. I would bet they do. There’s also the health risk on Megill, so I think Uribe is a great bet

Oaktown Blues: Do you like Shea Langeliers to repeat his 2025?

Justin Mason: I absolutely do. He’s made massive improvement to the hit tool while not giving up power to do so. Great park. Team is getting better too

Lord Thunder: Is there a chance Noelvi Marte retains his 3B eligibility for 2027?

Justin Mason: I dont think so. He’s going to stay in the outfield mostly.

Jimothy: Morning Justin! Making some NL-only keeper selections. At the tail-end of my group: $8 Xavier Edwards, $8 Sandy Alcantara, $13 Dylan Crews and $35 Bryce Harper. Lots of different priorities in there, but I have them ranked in that order. Any changes in how you’d sort them? I feel like I can draft Bryce around that price…

Justin Mason: I think that is the right order if you think you can get Harper back at that price or an equivalent player.

Addy Barger: Look in to your crystal ball and tell me what my numbers will look like this year? F/T RF’er or will I get some run at 3B as well? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Will start on the strong side of a platoon in right and with the addition of Okamoto, I dont see him playing much third. He needs to make improvements versus lefties and the Blue Jays are so stacked that I don’t know that he will get the opportunity to do so. Still a lot of upside in the bat as a platoon guy, but hard to project 600 PAs as much as I love the upside.

Chuck: In a keep forever format with no contracts and a team that’s built to win now. Would you opt for the safer option(s) like a mid tier Pepiot, Gallen types in lieu of the potential burgeoning aces of Misiorowski and Bubba Chandler ?

Justin Mason: No, I still want Mis and Chandler

Marceloscar Mayer Weiner: Thoughts on Marcelo Mayer this season? Seems like he’ll be starting either at 2B or 3B for Boston; any roto value there you think?

Justin Mason: Maybe in really deep leagues but he is likely on the strong side of a platoon and hitting low in the order. There’s also a risk they Red Sox bring in a third baseman like Paredes via a trade and he gets blocked off and sent back to AAA.

Justin Mason: Though in Jeff’s mining the news it says that the Red Sox will give him a chance to hit lefties, so that is intriguing if he can hold his own there

Salty: Is RP the new C in that there are so few premium closers that it’s paramount to get one early, and if luck/health works out, you won’t have to waste FAAB all year searching for the latest closer du jour, whereas Catcher is the deepest it’s been in years, so you’re crazy NOT to wait?

Justin Mason: It definitely is. You can always get closers off the wire, but everyone will be trying to and I would rather save my faab resources to fill other holes or cover for injuries as opposed to be diving into the same closer pool as everyone else.

Matt: At the start of the offseason, I made a trade that I’m now regretting. I no longer think one of the players I acquired is worth the salary he has…I have to make a drop decision independent of that trade right? I can’t just hold on to him out of spite?

Justin Mason: yeah, values change quickly. Dont just hold because you gave something up for him if you dont think he still has that value.

Matt: How are you looking at Bieber this year? Potential for solid mid rotation guy?

Justin Mason: I think the potential is def there but the forearm fatigue at the end of the season scares me some.  In deeper leagues I am avoiding, but in shallower formats where I have replacement value on the wire, I will take the gamble.

Ben: You think these guys have a next level?  R Greene, Vinny P, Soderstrom, Aug Ramirez    Thanks!

Justin Mason: I think they all do to some extent. We may have seen close to the top value on Greene, but the other three could definitely take another step forward.

Mike: Is Lawler at 10 dollars worth hanging onto this year and beyond? Ottoneu 400 dollar cap 12 team?

Justin Mason: I dont think so

Chuck: I know  Westburg has been ‘absent from school’ a good amount over the past two years, more so in 2024, but the addition of Alonso and a potential rebirth for Gunnar, gives me cautious optimism that the O’s lineup could be improved. Hence is Westy a good dart throw keeper with his 2B/3B dual eligibility over the likes of similarly situated other unnamed options. No there are no Otanis or Witts in the aforementioned.

Justin Mason: It’s all about health for Westburg. I think he’s shown enough talent that if he stays healthy he can be a really valuable player, but he hasnt stayed on the field in the Majors.

Joe: I know they say that about Caisse’s hit tool (how poor it is) but his K% in the minors isn’t outrageous.  Others have succeeded with similar K numbers, no?

Justin Mason: I think I will be watching him closely in spring. If he is making more contact and not swinging outside the zone a ton, I could become interested. The z-contact numbers in AAA arent terrible and maybe the small sample at the Majors is just that. We did see a 14% swinging strike rate in AAA in 2024 so that is more in line of where I think he likely lands. Obviously too early to completely write him off, but not someone I am targeting unless I see some improvement.

Larry: In a 10 team AL Only $260 cap, do you keep Ragans at 26 and Rafaela at 16? Skubal, Crochet, Brown and Woo will be kept so Ragan’s like the highest K upside left on the board.

Justin Mason: I do

Broken Bat: With the robo ump, recent rule changes all indications to me is that MLB wants more runs scored. I also think the pitch clock while reducing length of game time, will slowly creep up closer to average time of. 2:45. More runners and I believe more homeruns (looking at you KC). Your take?

Justin Mason: MLB always wants more runs, but I havent seen the data to suggest it would increase a ton with the robo umps. If there is data, please let me know.

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s your ranking of non-catcher catcher eligible players?

Justin Mason: Ben Rice, Ivan Herrera, Samuel Basallo

Justin Mason: need more questions!

Chuck: I’ll ask on behalf of all of your followers, readers and fans. Give us a dart throw minor leaguer, who isn’t a headliner, who can be *that guy* this year.

Justin Mason: Is McGonigle a headliner? If so, Quinn Matthews.

Wood: Joey Cantillo had the 4th highest CSW% in the league last year in games he started behind Skubal, Ragans and Sale. Any sleeper appeal here?

Justin Mason: There’s a lot of upside here, but it will come down to command and control. We saw some improvement there, so I am intrigued at the price

Oaktown Blues: Any hope for Lawrence Butler to recapture the magic of his 2024 second half?

Justin Mason: The hit tool regressed last year and that was responsible for the overall regression. It got worse as the season went on so I am not really bullish there

Pete: Do you think Andy Pages takes a step forward this offseason and does Tucker limit his playing time?

Tdub: Andy Pages last year: 27 HR, 86 RBI and 14 SB.

What’s your over/under this year: 25 HR, 80 RBI and 10 SB.

Justin Mason: answer both of these together. I think take the over. Not worried about his playing time in LA

Oaktown Blues: What are your expectations for Nick Kurtz this year? Regression? More of the same? Reaching another level and putting up MVP numbers?

Justin Mason: I think there is a huge amount of upside, but the ADP doesnt reflect the floor in his average. There is risk he hits like 230 and while I am not projecting that, I cant take him as high as he is going given that.

Mitch: River Ryan or Christian Scott in a super deep dynasty

Justin Mason: Scott

Goober: Is Kerry Carpenter worth holding on to at $15? 400 dollar cap. Thanks

Justin Mason: Close, but yes

Mitch: Thoughts on Jacob Melton this season

Justin Mason: Really like the arm. The stuff is really good and he’s shown good command in the minors. I love him as a sleeper this year

Mitch: Christian Moore a sneaky sleeper?

Justin Mason: Nah

ML: 12 team AL only, $260 cap, what’s the max you would bid on Imai?

Justin Mason: 15

Yadi: I’ve got William Contreras at $17. The catcher market is so deep, but I feel like this is value you have to keep. Would you hold or be looking to trade him away?

Justin Mason: hold

Chris: Last Keeper in AL-Only: do you want Pablo Lopez, Aranda, or Barger?

Justin Mason: Lopez

Justin Mason: but I could talk myself into barger if my pitching is already stacked

Arms Trade: Must drop one of these guys in 15-team 5×5 H2H dynasty: Nola, McClanahan, Musgrove or Carlos Estevez. Who would you drop? Thanks Justin.

Justin Mason: Musgrove

Wood: I think you answered about Troy Melton to the Jacob Melton Q

Justin Mason: oh my bad

Justin Mason: Collette seems to think the Rays really like him, but I just dont see the path to full time ABs with their other additions. Long term, I think hes an interesting accumulator, but I dont know that he is worth drafting in most formats.

Justin Mason: Clearly I love Troy Melton though lol

Justin Mason: thats all the time I have

Justin Mason: please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!