Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 26th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Happy TGFBI Day to all you that celebrate!

Justin Mason: Will begin in one moment

Your guys: Who are “your guys” this year? Players that you are getting on all of your teams, no matter what?

Justin Mason: Dalton Varsho, John Means, Michael Massey, Zach Eflin, Braxton Garrett

Justin Mason: I will have more at the end of this week too because I will be done with my projections.

Guest: Would rather take Seiya Suzuki or Riley Greene in obp cats?

Justin Mason: Suzuki

Sleeper? I hardly know her!: In a 5×5 roto redraft, what are some final round picks that can have the greatest ROI?

Justin Mason: Depends on the depth of the league but in a 12 teamer guys I really like going after pick 330: Alek Thomas, Amed Rosario, Michael Busch, Logan Allen, Tim Anderson, Jose Caballero, Michael Massey, Sean Bouchard

Justin Mason Miller: Who are your absolute fades, players who won’t be on any of your teams, no matter how low the cost to acquire? Excluding players with injury concerns.

Justin Mason: I am looking at fading players with bad skills or that have volatile profiles like Hunter Greene, Elly De La Cruz,Tyler Glasnow, Nolan Jones

Guest: Hi Justin.  In a roto 12 team league pick one to keep: O. Cruz 11th, j walker 19th, Casas 19th, or Royce 22nd( already have a 3B would be my util, there are no CI in this league).  Thanks

Justin Mason: Lewis

Jim: Thoughts on Tyler Mahle and DeGrom as postseason stashes?

Justin Mason: No on Mahle, maybe on deGrom if I have a bunch of IL spots

Matt W.: Thank you for doing Podapolllooza this weekend. Hopefully you still have your voice.

Justin Mason: Voice is still intact but I am beat lol

Justin Mason: Thank you for watching!

Rick James: Cole Irvin showed a 1-2 tick velo across the board in his first appearance. If you had to make a call before seeing more, is he moving up for you?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Jeff: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: HI!

Adenolith: Last week you mentioned you like to use Tanner Bell’s Smart Fantasy Baseball’s software. Am I right in understanding it’s a one time purchase? Seems like it’d be worth the investment if I could use it for several years before needing to update.

Justin Mason: I buy it every year because he updates is, but I guess it could be a one time purchase

Yolo: Glasnow, Fried, Webb, Berrios, Bradish, Kopech, Harrison, Sheehan, AJSS in a 15 team full keeper. Trade one for a bat/more stable pitcher or rider the tiger all year with demotions to minors and trips to IL?

Justin Mason: If I could trade Glasnow for a top tier bat I would but only if that is the return. Not a ton of depth here

Jeremy M: Hey Justin… Kinda at a loss with what to do with PCA after Bellinger re-signed. Have him at $1 for this year and next. Do you see him providing any value without an injury? Should I try and deal him?

Justin Mason: I would move him

Keepers: I’m stuck between two keeper spots.  I have several of the sophmores (Bibee, Bobby Miller, Skubal, and Eury).  Which two would you keep in a points league where quality starts count as much as wins?

Justin Mason: Skubal and Miller

Xmas Carrols: 30 team full keeper: Draft Carrol last year, but he’s my only star currently. Would you trade for 4-5 MLB Players to even out lineup, or wait out and see what you can build around off wire/prospects. What would you be looking for back for a top 10 dynasty asset?

Justin Mason: I try not to trade these guys in dynasty because they are so hard to come by unless I am completely overwhelmed. Even so I want at least a top 25 asset back plus the depth pieces.

Jeff: Hi Justin, barring injury, do you think Jose Alvarado begins the year as Phillie closer and do you believe he will keep the job for 2024?

Justin Mason: I think it is a committee

diadem: Looks like kind of a lost season for Lawler,no?

Justin Mason: He could force his way up but I don’t think he starts with the team

Guest: So which teams look likely/certain to go with a 6-man rotation?

Justin Mason: Dodgers for sure. I don’t know how many other teams can afford to to be quite honest. Especailly with the early season schedule spread out and injuries to still come, I don’t know that many will to start

Mike: Could you see Royber Salinas (in Eric’s top 100) breaking into the A’s rotation this year? If so, could he eventually be a top 100 SP for you?

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about him to give you an educated answer

Jeff: Will Tyler Black win the 3B job for the Brewers to start the regular season and if not, do you think he will head north with the Brewers next month?

Justin Mason: I think he starts in the minors

Vince: Scott White has said his strategy for ‘24 (due to the volatility of SPs), will be to draft bats, until all the 1st-rnd-caliber hitters are gone before drafting his 1st SP. In a 11-tm H2H cat league, I have Gunar Henderson, eligible at 3B/SS. More value targeting Riley or Ramirez, or Turner or Lindor? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think it is a good strategy, but I have Gunnar Henderson below all of those guys

Drew: Am overthinking it, contemplating taking Walker Jenkins in my FYPD over Crews at pick 3?

Justin Mason: Yes you are

Grapes: Have you ever had to tell a friend/league mate that they need to be an active participant all year or you’re kicking them out? I like the dude and I know he likes playing. It’s just the league as a whole is tired of the many concessions we’ve made for a guy who’ll just ghost the league for a few months if he doesn’t start strong and I don’t know how to be tactful about it.

Justin Mason: Just be honest. The game is supposed to be fun and he shouldn’t ruin that for everyone else.

Happy TGFBI!: Justin, pick 4 (lose a keeper round each year). 12-team points.

Soto (Round 7)
Seager (Round 10)
McLain (Round 11)
Ragans (Round 11)
Trea Turner (Round 13)
Elly DLC (Round 18)
Skubal (Round 22)

Justin Mason: Soto, Turner, Skubal, Seager

Adenolith: Who are the people or sites you read or study when prepping for a fantasy season?

Justin Mason: I read and listen to a ton. I will list some of my favorites. Pitcher List, Eno Sarris, and Paul Sporer for pitching. James Anderson and Matt Thompson for prospects. Scott Jenstad, Vlad Sedler, Dave McDonald, Rob DiPetro, Jeff Zimmerman for strategy. There are too many to name and list, but there are a few.

Adenolith: Is Arozarena just going to be the guy he is now? Not that he’s bad, I’d just hoped for more speed with the rule changes and he seems to run really hot or cold.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think he is a very good but not great player

Jeff: See that Cubs just signed Garrett Cooper.  Think he can win the starting 1st base job with the Cubs over Busch and Mervis?

Justin Mason: Probably not but it is definitely a mess

Jordan: Rendon or Andujar for 2024?

Justin Mason: Rendon I guess

Arms or Bats?: In a keeper, OBP league, looking at a choice between Yordan, Devers, Luis Castillo, or Wheeler. Thoughts? Pitching will likely be at a premium, with probably 65% of the top 20 kept. I’ve got Eury and Ragans.

Justin Mason: Yordan

Justin Mason: If it is a really deep league then Castillo

Mark: Hi! What are your thoughts on Nolan Schanuel this year? I am debating keeping him or Harrison Bader in a 12-team AL only Roto league (Bader is eligible to be kept because he was on AL team last year).

Justin Mason: I like him but I think that he has a limited upside in the power department. I think it is a pretty safe floor though and prefer him to Bader

Justin A: What are some off-season adjustments you’re buying into?

Justin Mason: I don’tknow if there are a ton this year. Just making sure I am as prepped as I can be with my projections and research. Not much changed in terms of new rules or anything this year

Southpaw: Is $29 (out of $260) too expensive to keep Altuve in a 7×7 OBP league? With him, my keepers will cost me $144

Justin Mason: I think that is very border line

Matt: What do you expect from DL Hall, short term and long? Is he primarily SP or RP?

Justin Mason: I would be really surprised if he was a starter out of the gate. Long term he could be interesting if the control and command can sharpen, but I tend to think he is a high leverage reliever more likely than not

Guest: Padres desperately need OFs, do you believe that Merrill or Marsee can start the season with SD?  See that Merrill is playing OF in spring training rather than his natural SS position.

Justin Mason: I think one of them could make the team and right now we have Merrill penciled in on the active roster. Worth a dart throw

Dan: 16 team points league.  Choose 2 keepers: Riley (2nd rd, pick 25), Hoerner (13 rd, pick 200), G Rod (rd 20, pick 313), or Bibee (rd 21, pick 328)  Thanks

Justin Mason: Riley and Grayson

Cold Turkey Stearnes: Should fantasy leagues postpone their drafts until the big free agents sign?

Justin Mason: I prefer to draft my most important leagues as close to the season, so probably

Charlie: Hi Justin! In 15-team h2h roto dynasty, I must choose a final keeper. Can you please rank Ashby, Kirilloff, and Jon Gray in this context? Thanks, Justin!

Justin Mason: Kirilloff, Ashby, Gray

Thomas Candiotti: How would you define, in the simplest way, the difference between a pitcher’s control and a pitcher’s command?

Justin Mason: Control is about the ability to get pitches in the zone (walks) and command is about the ability to hit your spots in the zone (home runs)

Draft and Hold strategy question: I joined an NFBC 50s draft and hold for the first time this year after years of playing in a head-to-head auction league with friends. Is there a general rule of thumb for setting your pitchers each week? How many starters vs relievers do you typically go with? How much do matchups influence your decisions?

Justin Mason: I typically early in the season use my best 7 SPs and 2 RPs unless I don’t have seven good matchups. I then adjust as the season goes on depending what I need in terms of categories

Guest: Who gets the most saves for the Padres this year, Suarez, Matsui, possibly Go?

Justin Mason: Suarez

Grapes: I was using the FG auction calculator (The Bat X projections, standard categories) and it had Freddy Peralta as the #3 pitcher. I didn’t imagine him in my top 12. Am I undervaluing him?

Justin Mason: I don’t think that properly weighs in his injury and blow up risk. He is a great talent but there is a lot more risk. I have him 24

Don Von Handburger: Any hope that this is peak Bryan Reynolds in ’24 – something like .290 with 100 each RBI and RUNS?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. The team is better and I think he has rock solid skills.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: Is it worth using the last few rounds of the draft on IL or NA stash guys?

Justin Mason: Only if you have a lot of those spots. They fill up really quickly with injuries. If you do, be ok with dropping quickly if you get hit.

PlayBall !: Which to “reach” for (about pick 65 overall) in a Roto: Bobby Miller or Cole Ragans ?

Justin Mason: I have Ragans a little above Miller but I love both

Don Von Handburger: Josh Jung or Bryan Reynolds in OBP league?

Justin Mason: Reynolds

Guest: How many years have you and Paul done a podcast together?  Do you guys see each other in the off season?

Justin Mason: We have been working together since like 2018 on the pod, but have been friends since I entered the industry in 2016. We see each other at some industry events in the offseason and sometimes when we are in each other’s area. I consider him one of my best friends and he is amazing to work with

Don Von Handburger: Have you ever considered reversing your name, and going by “Mason Justin?”  I’ve considered it. Not for me, for you.

Justin Mason: looooooooooool

Justin Mason: I have not but I will take it under advisement.

Guest: I’ve heard Langford is a defensive liability.  Would you take crews over him in a dynasty dmb league?

Justin Mason: I probably wouldn’t but I think there is an argument for it.

Rookie Cookie: Who will be the most impactful hitter/pitcher rookie this season?

Justin Mason: Yamamoto and Langford

Del: Tatis or Tucker in a (5×5) keep forever league at same cost?

Justin Mason: Tatis

Nick: what are some of the deepest position slots that can wait til the later part of the draft?

Justin Mason: I think all of the positions have depth but there are big drop offs in the tiers in each. SP is really deep this year, but I wouldn’t push it too far down. First base is probably a position you can wait on if you want

Brian: Thanks for the chat! AL4X4 with OBP 9 team. 260 cap. Would you tend to go stars & scrubs in this league?  What are your thoughts on keepers Rodon 12 gausman 19 eovaldi 5 Paredes 10 Estevez 6 Ragans 10 Polanco 6 Vinnie P 5. Any of those you would not keep?

Justin Mason: I tend to draft auctions more balanced but it is all about waiting for the best values and sometimes that means spending early. I am probably keeping all of those guys at their prices.

Guest: Do you think that Nola will have a bounce back season?  He was mediocre last year

Justin Mason: I think he will. He was a bit unlucky in a few departments. I still have him as a top 15 SP

Don Von Handburger: Any 1B you like that are being taken outside of the first 200 draft picks?

Justin Mason: Rizzo and Abreu

the heater from van meter: Cincy’s lineup is crowded. Who do you think will be full season mainstays and who will get squeezed out? Or do you think there will be a whole lot of platooning all year?

Justin Mason: I think only India gets squeezed out but it all comes down to performance. If someone struggles mightily (i.e. De La Cruz and Marte) they could get sent down

FTSYSportsDave: How did you get started in this industry?

Justin Mason: Kind of on accident. A bunch of guys from a dynasty league wanted to start a podcast about the league and asked me to join. I did an episode and told them that I didn’t really want to do it if it was only about our league. We switched to fantasy analysis and Friends with Fantasy Benefits was born. Paul asked me to join FanGraphs the next season

Nobody: Who is going to be the 1st pitcher to have their velo way down instead of way up this spring because these constant velo optimism tweets are too much for my pessimist brain

Justin Mason: Yeah, I don’t worry too much about guys being up or down a little bit. I only really care if it is massive jumps up or down

Kevin: In a keep forever league 12 team 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG, who do you keep out of Jazz, Volpe and Goldy for this year.

Justin Mason: Volpe in keep forever

Tim: If cost to keep was equal, who do you like more in a standard roto: Oneil Cruz or Royce Lewis?

Justin Mason: Lewis

Nick: In a keeper league, trying to decide whether to keep Kirby or Castillo, I have Betts and Riley

Justin Mason: Castillo for me

Damian: Should Matos be starting for the Giants?

Justin Mason: He should but he won’t

Jeff: Can Edward Olivares earn a starting OF job with the Pirates?  About time he gets a chance as KC never gave him one.

Justin Mason: I think he platoons

18 seconds: Pitch clock with runners on is now 18 seconds. Are there any pitchers that you’re fading as a result?

Justin Mason: Not really. I think they all know how to prepare for it now. If someone starts really struggling in spring because of it, then maybe I will fade them

KC Pain: Dynasty league 16 teams FYPD, I have pick 6…got an offer for pick 10 plus 3rd.  Is there a talent drop off in your opinion between those slots?   I figure Langford/Yama/Crews/Skenes/Jenkins/????

Justin Mason: Unless you really want Imanaga or Clark, I think the difference between 6 and 10 isn’t that large

Jordan: How many more years will we have to suffer through ‘Baseball Zen’ on MLB.TV?

Justin Mason: I barely watch MLB.tv

Justin Mason: I’d rather rewatch old games

Justin Mason: Only have about 10 minutes left or so. So I am going to rapid fire answer as many as I can

Mark: Would you rank Tucker ahead of Soto in Roto due to his capacity to steal bags? I want to spend big on one of them in my auction

Justin Mason: I have them very close. Depends more on how you like to construct your roster.

KC Pain: Dynasty 5×5 16 teamer, last OF Wallner, B. Reynolds, Outman?

Justin Mason: Reynolds

Joe: 12 team H2H categories, 6×6 with OBP and SLG instead of AVG. Pick 3 to keep at their keeper round price… Ozzie Albies – 3rd round, Seiya Suzuki – 11th rd, Spencer Steer – 15th, Lane Thomas – 15th, TJ Friedl – 15th

Justin Mason: Albies

Jeff: Thoughts on Morel?  Does Bellinger signing hurt him or will he be starting 3B on the Cubs?

Justin Mason: I think he will get time initially because the team loves him but I hate the underlying contact skills.

JB: Thoughts on Manoah and Tiedemann? Ragans? Any insight would be appreciated

Justin Mason: I don’t trust that either Manoah or Tiedemann start in the majors. I love Ragans this year. I think he is a top 20starter

KC Pain: Anyone you like at the back end of the Mets/Diamondbacks/Tigers spring training battles as a sleeper?

Justin Mason: Eddys Leonard is a guy I have always really liked. Could make the Tigers as a utility guy

Pat Listach: Hit me with your preseason picks for AL and NL ROY

Justin Mason: Yamamoto and Langford

Mark: How would you rank Burns, Castillo, and Gausman? Excited about any of them in particular heading into 2024?

Justin Mason: Burns, Castillo, Gausman

Guest: Is there any hope Austin meadows returns to MLB?

Justin Mason: Nah

Vic: Deep 15 team roto league. Will be keeping Gore, Pfaadt, Cease, and Bello. Realize my WHIP will suffer but they are late in the draft. Do you think I should just punt WHIP get 2 or 3 closers and earn pitching points that way? Really don’t see the point to getting a Gallen and Fried to offset the WHIP debacle.

Justin Mason: I don’t love punting WHIP so I would try and get a stabilizer

Guest: keep ketel marte in the 20th or story in the 25th? OBP league

Justin Mason: Marte

Guest: Clase or hader

Justin Mason: Hader

Birdland: My league uses quality starts, which can be very hard to find (both in reality and on stats websites).  I’ve been using IP/GS as a proxy, but wondering if you have go-to site for a more accurate accounting.

Justin Mason: ATC projects QS

KC Pain: Thoughts on DL limits in dynasty?  League has unlimited currently, but we are going to vote soon. Majority seem to want only 5 spots.

Justin Mason: I love unlimited for dynasty because you should never have to drop a guy you like in dynasty because heis hurt

Jordan: Think Dairon Blanco has a chance to be useful this year? Tons of speed, might already be a small side platoon for the Royals.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think he is like an old school Jarrod Dyson. Won’t play much but when he does he could steal in bunches

Guest: Keep 8 league, Am keeping Bobby Miller, but just got offered Bibbee for him plus a pick (1st round)…close enough I gotta do it probably, right?

Justin Mason: I would do that

The 6ix: Draft suck, auctions rule. No question, just thought it was worth a mention.

Justin Mason: Agreed

Nice Game, Pretty Boy: Which boring vet would you prefer at CI in a deep 15-team Ottoneu auction format? J. Abreu, A. Rizzo or J. Turner?

Justin Mason: Rizzo

Taximan: NL only 11 team auction 5X5 roto (SV+0.5HLD), would you trade a $3 Luzardo for a $4 Gorman?  I’ve only got about 5-6 players worth protecting so I’ll be buying most of my roster as our league enters our 33rd year.  Gorman is eligible for an extra year of protection, so long term I think it’s fair value depending on health.

Justin Mason: Luzardo

S2H: Who will get the most starts at 3B for the Giants this year?

Justin Mason: Flores

Guest: Is keeping Acuna for $60 in a $260 5×5 league crazy? If he gets hurt, my season is over, but if he repeats what he did last year he seems like he’d be an $80 player.

Justin Mason: I hate to do it, but he is probably the only one I would ever consider doing it with

Birdland: Am I crazy to think to prefer Soto over Judge just because of the injury risk?  If I get 150 games out of Judge he may single-handedly win my league, but I feel like the average expectation for Soto is higher.

Justin Mason: Nope, I have Soto much higher

cuadrangular: Any players come to mind that are currently outside the top 50 this year but will be a lock for top 20 in 2025 and beyond?

Justin Mason: Machado, Langford

Justin Mason: Maybe Skubal

Justin Mason: Grayson Rodriguez

Grant: Hey Justin! Where should we be keeping an eye out for the TGFBI ADP sheet? Will that be posted to Twitter?

Justin Mason: I will have it up on TGFBI at some point today or tomorrow

KC Pain: Is there anyone you would draft on KC outside of Ragans, Perez, Vinnie P, and Witt?  Id love to have someone on my team.  ….but want to win too lol

Justin Mason: Massey, Garcia, Wacha, Lugo

Guest: Who’s at 2nd for Jays?  Schneider have any value?

Justin Mason: I guess he is right now but I think they rotate a bunch of guys there

BTinVT: What’s your thoughts on Manaea  this year?

Justin Mason: I think he is a sneaky sleeper if healthy. I have always loved the talent

Guest: Does Coby Mayo make the club out of st or is he called up in summer?

Justin Mason: I think he could force his way up early. I have been drafting him in draft and holds.

Jeff: Friedl or Suzuki?  Know you have a man crush on Friedl

Justin Mason: That is close but I lean Suzuki

Pat: Deep deep Sleeper for steals not named Estuary Ruiz?

Justin Mason: Florial

Jeff: Will Imonaga emerge to become the ace of the Cubs?

Justin Mason: I think he could be in the discussion. Had a good talk about him on podapallooza with Eric Samulski and Nick Pollack and they have me buying a little.

Peter: Hi Justin, I have the 2nd pick in a 15 team Roto. Taking Julio Rodriguez there. Who do you like in 2nd & 3rd rd? Take a starter or roll the dice and wait until Pick #59? Thanks for your great content!

Justin Mason: I think I am taking a starter and a bat in 2/3

Dr. Funk: 14 team H2H dynasty with QA3 and IP as categories in addition to SV,  K, ERA and WHIP.  Pick one to drop of these three pitchers.  Pivetta, Crawford, Olson

Justin Mason: Crawford

Dodgers Blue: Please tell me that the presence of Gallo and Winker aren’t going to keep Wood and Crews off the Nationals major league roster for most of the year.

Justin Mason: I hate to say it but probably

KC Pain: Was this past years draft stronger than normal or avg? I keep hearing next year is weak compared to it

Justin Mason: Yes, this was a fantastic draft class.

DDjames: How we feelin about Jazz as a keeper over the Jacksons? (Similar price)

Justin Mason: If you keep forever, then I lean the Jackson’s

Dodgers Blue: True or False – if the Angels played in the AL Central instead of the packed West, they’d have a legit shot at taking the division even after losing Ohtani…..

Justin Mason: True

Phil Brickma: what are the things you’re looking for in players during spring training? Is it as simple as staying healthy?

Justin Mason: Health, strikeouts and walks, mechanical changes, lineups

Justin Mason: Unfortunately I have to wrap up.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!