Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 12th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Good morning/afternoon and happy fantasy baseball season!

Luke S: I’m a depressed 49ers fan and am getting more depressed thinking about the Giants being stuck in no mans land. What will cheer me up

Justin Mason: Are the Sharks going to be good this year?

Justin Mason: I don’t know man. The Giants have sat on the fence so ling between trying to be competitive but not really that the fence seems to be permanently wedged inside of them. I don’t know what they are doing and as a Giants’ fan myself, it is frustrating.

Greg: I can keep 15 in my league, and I’m keeping Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman for sure. Yainer Diaz makes a lot of sense as my last keeper. Any concern of keeping four guys from one lineup in a head-to-head points league with daily lineup changes?

Justin Mason: I think you should have some concern depending on how big your bench is. You need to maximize the plate appearances on days off and it is hard to do if you stack too many guys. You could lose weeks where the Astros have five games instead of six or seven if you can back fill

Dan G: Which player going in the first two rounds has the biggest bust potential? Also, who and at what number would you to take the first pitcher off the board?

Justin Mason: Elly de la Cruz probably has the biggest bust potential from a straight skills prospective, but also a massive ceiling. I would say that from a health prospective Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez have the biggest bust potential.

Justin Mason: The earliest I would take a starting pitcher is largely dependent on league size and format. The deeper the league, the more likely I would take a starter in the back end of the first round. In a 10 team league, I doubt I would take a pitcher before round three or four.

Justin Mason: However, in a points league that could change depending on the format of the scoring.

Dave: Is the recent report of Wicks possibly starting the season in triple-A a result of not needing a fifth starter early or does the club plan to have someone else as the fifth starter?

Justin Mason: We see this a lot because the early season schedule can include a lot of days off so teams don’t need a fifth starter. I would be surprised if Wicks didn’t get a shot to be the fifth guy.

Guest: Any chance we’ll get a list from you folks as to which teams will be running 6-man starting pitching rotations?

Justin Mason: I am sure we will once we have a bit more clarity.

Usher: Do you inherently value hitters over pitchers in keeper/dynasty formats? If I wanted to shop Spencer Strider for a top end bat, should I not expect to get one in a 1 for 1 without adding something on top? Or if dealing with those type of offers do you think just better off keeping a top guy like Strider

Justin Mason: I do value hitters over pitchers in most dynasty/keeper leagues because of how often pitchers get hurt. With Strider, I would want a top 10-15 hitter though to move him because he is arguably the #1 pitcher in fantasy.

Guest: Anywhere I can find out how many runs are typically scored in ballparks by calendar month? (for instance, is San Diego typically more favorable vis-a-vis the cold weather parks to hitters in  April, or do Santa Anna winds or some such spring effect perhaps make it worse)

Justin Mason: I am sure there is a way to look that up but I honestly do not know off the top of my head. I would ask Alex Chamberlain or Alex Fast. I will try and ask them myself and if you hit me up next week, I should have the answer

G4: Who are a few NL-only non-closer relievers you like to amass holds/Ks?

Justin Mason: A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley 레일리, Lucas Sims, Colin Holderman, Hector NEris, Joel Payamps, Taylor Rogers.

John W: The batted ball data for Josh Naylor looks great but I’m leaning on keeping Ian Happ due to league structure and Naylor’s injury history. Their projections for this year look somewhat similar – what say you, Justin? In a 5×5 OBP keeper league.

Justin Mason: I think I lean Happ here because Naylor has never gotten over 500 plate appearances, but I do really like him and think this could be theyear he goes over that threshold.

Ken: Keeper question. 10-team CBS 5×5 Roto. 34 man rosters (32+2 IL). Must keep 8. Can keep a player for 5 years, round slot increases by one each year. Need to keep 2 of these 3: McLain, Ragans (year 2- 19th/20th round), O. Cruz (year 3, 27th round). Currently keeping Soto, Albies, Gallen, Bobby Miller, R. Lewis, N. Jones. Leaning Ragans, stuck on which infielder.

Justin Mason: McLain and Ragans for me.

Ken: Something I’ve always struggled to figure out – re: auction league keeper decisions, do you look more at a player’s salary vs. his value, or his salary vs. what he’d likely go for at auction if you were to drop him? In other words, how much are you factoring keeper-related inflation into your keeper decisions?

Justin Mason: How I approach leagues like this is by doing a mock keeper list for the other members of my league. I guess who I think the rest of the league will keep and then run that through draft software to see what my best options are. Sometimes it makes sense to keep a higher priced stud because the inflation is going to be high, but I usually lean towards the players that give me the best value in terms of $ values.

Guest: Hi Justin.  In an AL only roto keep 5: Simeon $24, Garver $7, E. Carter $7, Vinnie P $7, J Holliday $7, Royce $7, J. Caminero $7, Ragans $7, G. Rosriguez $7, Kirby $16.  Leaning Semien, Royce and Kirby so far.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Semien, Royce, Kirby, Holliday, Grayson

Daro: Do you prefer Casas over Vinnie P in a dynasty league? Cats includes: K BB OBP Slug

Justin Mason: I prefer Vinnie P

Its come to this: Jake Cronenworth or T. Story as last keeper in a points league?

Justin Mason: Story

Eric: Does Matt McLain’s dynasty value have room to climb, or do you think he’s probably met his ceiling?  Same question with Spencer Steer.

Justin Mason: I don’t think he necessarily has a ton more upside, but I also think he has a pretty safe floor. If he can stay on the field, he is a really valuable dynasty piece in that park and on that young up and coming team.

Salty: You and I both had the DBacks to win the division but not the pennant, that’s why we’re not swimming in cash.  Have any thoughts on longshots this year?  I’m trying to talk myself into KC to win the Central, but haven’t got there yet.

Justin Mason: You and I are on the same page again. I think KC is a really interesting dark horse in that bad division. I don’t think I will make it to Vegas this year but I will try and place a bet on them when I am in a state that allows betting.

John W: For 2024 only, who would you rather have: Albies or Oneil Cruz? I’ve got Bellinger, too, and between his statcast data and Cruz’s health I’d like to get a more stable player and reduce risk. Am I overthinking it? OBP-league if that matters.

Justin Mason: Albies

Gina Pepiot-i: Any chance the Rays use Pepiot as a bullpen freak rather than in the rotation? I’ve earmarked him as a starkeeper but

Justin Mason: They definitely could as a way of monitoring his innings but I think he is more likely to be a guy that has an opener making him a really interesting option for fantasy. The problem is they could definitely use him as the opener and give him a follower which would be awful for his value.

Jeff!: Tell me what the Cubs are doing. They’ve indicated Michael Busch will spend a lot of time at 1B but I think that’s just signaling they’re in no rush to re-sign Cody Bellinger. But they aren’t really going into the year with Nick Madrigal getting full time run at 3B, are they? Will I ever see my boy Matt Mervis on the north side again?

Justin Mason: I think they still end up with Bellinger. Busch really is bad defensively so I think he should play first but Tauchman can’t be their every day CF.

Snakebit: How worried are you about Corbin’s shoulder being a repeat issue like it was for Tatis? I have him as a cheap 3-4 year keeper and wondering if I should try to get out in front of any long-term injury by moving him now

Justin Mason: I am not overly concerned with it. I think unless we hear a reason for concern, he is as still a stud

DurstBurst: What do you make of Braxton Garrett going into the 2024 season?  Is he a guy that could be a potential top 20 starting pitcher?  Thanks!

Justin Mason: I feel like I am out on an island on Garrett because I love him and no one else seems to. He is a k per inning guy that gets a lot of ground balls and pitches in a great park. I don’t know that he becomes a top 20 guy, but his current ADP has him as guy in the 50s and that is way too low.

Jon: For a 5 OF NL only auction league, are there any cheap sleepers that you like? Need this years TJ Friedl!

Justin Mason: I am still working on my outfield projections but NL guys that stand out to me are Sal Frelick, Alek Thomas, Jung Ho Lee, and Edward Oliveras

Tim: Better last keeper in AL only. $5 R Lewis or $17 L Robert?

Justin Mason: I’ll save the money and gamble on Lewis

Chef Nitty: Do you expect Andrew Abbott to make some adjustments and bounce back from his rough few months at the end of last year?  He was so dominant to start, I know there is a good pitcher in there somewhere.  Thanks for the chat.

Justin Mason: Obviously a guy like him could but I worry about the park always being a problem and he is very hittable. Someone to watch in spring just in case but so far I am less enthused than I though I would be.

Frankie: I have Buehler for $10 (5×5 roto 12-team NL-only deep league with very high inflation & $260 salary cap). Somewhat worried about his ‘late start’ but should I keep him going into the auction knowing that few quality pitchers will be available?

Justin Mason: If I am looking to compete this season, I am less likely to keep Buehler. I would honestly try and trade him for someone similar but that is starting the year healthy. Guys coming off of TJ struggle with command and control, plus there is innings risk.

Raggedy Ragans: Is the Ragans Helium too high? Debating him or Woo, who is lower in your ranks but pitches for a team that wins and will face more A’s/Angels. (FWIW, all the projections have Woo ahead.)

Justin Mason: I am honestly surprised that Ragans isn’t higher in the ADP. I don’t think they are close in talent level and don’t forget that Woo had elbow issues last year that scare me a bit.

Too Ill?: Best AL IL stash? Rasmussen or Springs? Degrom? Luis Garcia?
Odds Shane McClanahan pitches this season?

Justin Mason: I don’t like stashing guys like this if I want to count on them for this year but the answer is deGrom if you are going to do it.

DPD from EGV: Out of the 3 Seattle starting pitchers, Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert, who do you see having the best 2024 and who would you be spending your auction dollars on?

Justin Mason: Castillo for me, but I love all three

Dollars: AL Only, 10 team OBP. Pick 2 of: Ragans ($10), Woo (10), Jarren Duran (12), Davis Schneider (10)?

Justin Mason: Ragans

Superb Owl: Why do NFL defenses trade yards for time at the end of the game?

Justin Mason: It is the idea that you can bend but not break. I think it is often just bad strategy. I understand you don’t want to give up the big play, but I would rather give up the big play and there still be time for my offense to score as opposed to being killed by paper cuts. Your defense got you to this point, why change things so dramatically?

Kingpin: Standard 5×5 NL-only keeper league, $260 cap auction, 8 keepers with inflation. As my last keeper I have Cristopher Sanchez for $5. Unique rule has players switching leagues bid on before the auction, but the high bidder must keep. I have rights to Sale. At what $ should I be willing to take Sale over Sanchez? Is he worth $5 more? $10? Or none?

Justin Mason: I think Sale is worth at least $10 in NL Only

Usher: Thanks, following up on that Strider question: Do you see this as a perhaps his peak value, and maybe a good time to sell in a dynasty type format? Or no real concerns outside of just general pitcher injury worries

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is much reason to think he has any more injury risk than any pitcher.

D-Rex: If you had to guess 5 closers to start the season that would end the season with the job, who would they be?  And I’m not talking the locked in guys, maybe some middle tier closers.  Thanks for the chat Justin.

Justin Mason: Alzolay, Munoz, Suarez, Bednar, Sewald

Springsteen on Curb: Hunter Brown, B.WOO, Bryce Miller & M.King. Please rate for roto. TY

Justin Mason: I think these are all really close. King, Brown, Miller, Woo

Veenstar: What position do you see as being the weakest that we should prioritize early in drafts this year?  2B seems pretty shallow, but so does OF.  Thoughts?

Justin Mason: To be quite honest, I don’t think any position is really bad. 2B seems like it is the worst, but SS and 1B fall off steeper than in year’s past.

Fred: 12 team roto with QS instead of wins. My 3 SP keepers as of now are Ragans, Eury, J Ryan. Is it worth me trading away JRam to get Devers and Bobby Miller?  Is guess my question is Miller a big upgrade over any of those arms above?

Justin Mason: I think I would do that if I could keep all of those pitchers, but with you having limited keepers I don’t know that I would. Miller over Ryan for sure for me, but is that worth giving up a stud in J-Ram?

Kingpin: With the increase in stolen bases, it seems SBs should be easier to find & we should emphasize accumalting HR? Is that correct, or faulty reasoning?

Justin Mason: I think that is correct. Stay balanced though because SBs may be easier to find but you need more to win the category

Guest: In a keeper DMB league would you take a chance on Walcott or more ready SP (Hampton,  Waldrep)

Justin Mason: Walcott for me

Matt K.: I’m in a 14-team dynasty league (OBP and AVE) where one of my keepers from last year is Logan O’Hoppe. I’m comfortable with him as my starting C, but the league is currently drafting in the 18th round and Wilson Contreras is still on the board. Do I try to upgrade at catcher and relegate O’Hoppe to backup or ride with O’Hoppe and grab a backup further on down (Henry Davis is a potential upside pick here…)

Justin Mason: Give me Contreras all day

C.R.A.I.G.: Do you have a few guys you think will bounce back this year after disappointing 2023 seasons?  I need to account for them in my draft calculations.  Thank you sir!

Justin Mason: Varsho has been my most drafted player this year after a down 2023. Skills actually improved under the hood.

hurston’s splitter: Are there 2 or 3 or 4 advanced stats you look at when evaluating a player’s “hit tool”?  If yes, what are they and what is the target threshold of each?

Justin Mason: I look at a lot but the first thing is ability to make contact inside the zone (Z-Contact). League average is typically around 85% on FG. I think look at barrel rates (10%), o-swing (~30%), max exit velocity (112 mph), swinging strike rate (less than 15%) amongst others.

Justin Mason: Ok, I have a ton of questions left and not much time so let’s speed round it.

Guest: Which of the second year starters do you think will have the highest ceiling? B. Miller, Senga, Eury, Bibee, Bryce Miller, Grod or Pfaadt? And which one do you think will be most reliable?

Justin Mason: Eury has the highest celing and Bibee has the highest floor

Post callup hype: NL youngsters M Winn, PCA, & Henry Davis didn’t perform well in short stints last year.  Each can be kept for $5 in 12 team, 14H/10P, NL 5×5 keeper $260 cap with 20% inflation.  Do you keep any or just toss back?

Justin Mason: Keep Davis because he will get catcher eligibility.

Guest: Late round MI, standard 5×5. Massey or Luis Garcia (WAS)? Who gets more playing time?

Justin Mason: Massey

Eriks Lovebot: Mike Trout, Byron Buxton, Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisolm………….if all of these players give us at least 130 games, will they all be top 40 offensive players?

Justin Mason: All but Stanton

Chris: Do we think Miguel Vargas gets a shot this year in the Majors?  Worth a buy low in a deep keeper league?

Justin Mason: He needs to be traded

michael scott servais: What’s your outlook for Kyle Harrison in 2024?

Justin Mason: I think he will be up and down because of the spotty command.

Doug: How do you adjust A’s hitters in dynasty for hitting environment with the move. Assume they’ll end up in very favorable conditions in short order?

Justin Mason: Hard to really know what will happen but I would give the long term options a small bump.

Tom: Generally in my AL only $260 cap league I tend to try and keep players at the best value….however most of the really good hitters are gone. Would I be better off keeping $9 Skubal or $23 G Torres?  Other keepers are JRam, JRod, Tucker, L Robert, Tork. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Skubal

Bargain bin: I am currently counting on Kutter Crawford and S. Matz to be productive rotation members in a deep keeper – any chance of this working out or am I doomed?

Justin Mason: I am not a Crawford guy but if Matz stays healthy, he is a really nice sleeper.

Guest: I have Nick Pivetta in an AL Only 5×5 roto league.  He had a pretty good year last season and I’m considering keeping him.  We keep 8.  How do you see his 2024?  Another solid year or back down to earth?  Thanks.

Justin Mason: I think he will always be up and down, but if he is cheap, I think he makes sense in an AL only

Larry Jones: Who do you think ends up getting the most run as Atlanta’s #5 SP this year?

Justin Mason: Elder

Jabrwcky: Doing my first slow draft auction in an existing Ottoneu league – any changes to your strategy in a slow draft? I’m mostly nominating guys at positions where I’m already deep in hopes that they suck up a lot of budget from the pool right away.

Justin Mason: I am not an Ottoneu guy but I tend to make sure I nominate guys I want too before tiers drop off because you risk overpaying for the last guy in a tier

Bill: How much do you trust J. Holiday and J. Chourio to contribute this season?

Justin Mason: I think both are up early and productive if not on the Opening Day roster

AL Central Casting: Thanks for chatting, Justin. I’m considering going with a pretty extreme stars and scrubs approach in a 12-team mixed $260 salary-cap league – you can keep as many as you want, but salaries go up $4 per year. I have a bunch of 1st/2nd round hitters at high prices and some decent pitching depth at lower costs, but may end up with like $12 to spend on 8 players. When is it worth tossing, say, a $39 JRam back for the extra auction dollars (or maybe keeping a $10 Ketel Marte instead)?

Justin Mason: I think it really depends on the remaining pool. If there aren’t going to be many guys you like available then keep the studs

Steve: 14 team mixed redraft – what position(s) do you see as the deepest and the most shallow?  Thanks.

Justin Mason: Probably second base is the shallowest but there are big drop offs in other positions. Catcher is one of the deeper positions this year

put wagner in the hall: Reliever Recon was a great recommendation I got from SATB last year. Any other tips on unique resources like that???

Justin Mason: Smart Fantasy Baseball has fantastic draft software/projection software for like $17

RAGBRAI: Can anyone realistically in the NLC make a mo e now that puts them as the division preseason leader? Cubs/Bellinger or Chapman? Cards/Montgomery? Or or there no moves to make to move the needle that much?

Justin Mason: I think that it is a competitive division no matter where these last pieces go.

Dr. Funk: 14 team 1 C dynasty league with Hits as extra category and OBP instead of Ave.  Rank these C Willson Contreras, Keibert Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno and Yainer Diaz.

Justin Mason: Diaz, Contreras, Ruiz, Montero

Dodgers Blue: Was the Giants trade of Stripling a big vote of confidence to Harrison and Winn – or more of a clearing of room for eventual Cobb and Ray returns?  Also, if they don’t sign Snell, can you see them adding a secondary guy like Clevinger that’ll damper Harrison/Winn?

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t really know. I think moving stripling was a mistake. I was hoping it was going to signal a signing of Snell or Montgomery but probably not. I like Winn as a deep sleeper this year but I don’t know what they do with the rest.

Justin Mason: They clearly are committed to Harrison being in the rotation though

Frank: When is prospect week?

Justin Mason: No idea

Dodgers Blue: Industry seems pretty split on Grayson v Bobby Miller for THIS year.  My question is in a keep forever league…. Throwing Eury Perez’s name into the mix, how do you rank each of these guys for the LONG TERM?

Justin Mason: I think this is very close but for me, Grayson, Miller, Eury

Dodgers Blue: Any chance the Brewers are in on Matt Chapman to take over at 3B, moving Ortiz into a time share with Turang at 2b – until Adames gets moved by the trade deadline if they aren’t in contention?

Justin Mason: No chance they spend that kind of money.

Guest: Auction. $260 budget. 15 team Mixed Points League. 11 starters on offense (1 per position, 2 UTs). 9 pitchers (5 SPs, 4 RPs). $5 minimum salary   Should I keep Nathaniel Lowe at $10?  My instinct is no; the auction calculator says yes.

Justin Mason: Probably not.

can of corn: The hype on Bobby Miller is huge. Are you buying and if so why?

Justin Mason: He has a good body, and great stuff. Could lead the best team in baseball in innings.

Jeff!: Was reading another site’s prospect rundown and they were gushing over Kyle Harrison. For prospects I typically trust Fangraphs and a different publication that have been more tepid on Harrison. What are your expectations for him in 2024?

Justin Mason: I expect a lot of ups and downs. The command and control will be hit or miss

Dodgers Blue: What are you hearing the Giants want/expect to get from a Joey Bart trade?

Justin Mason: A bag of balls?

bleepbloop: 10tm 5×5+OBP+SLG keeper league – who do you prefer (both can be kept for 2 years after this year) Vinny P or Josh Naylor?

Justin Mason: Vinny P

Justin Mason: Abrams

Justin Mason: Abrams is an answer to a question on keeping him vs Chourio

Scotty G: Keeper question: 16 team OBP league, keep 6 forever. I’m already keeping Tatis, Lindor, Gunnar, Freddy Peralta, Skubal. For my last keeper, should I keep CJ Abrams or Chourio?

Justin Mason: There it is lol

ML: Will Reese Olson be a league average starter this year?

Justin Mason: I think he is probably around there or a little below

N: Will Lucas Giolito provide any fantasy value this season?

Bags: Is there too much helium with Nolan Jones this year? His K rate and BABIP have me concerned that his floor is fairly low.

Justin Mason: I completely agree. I think there is massive bust potentially at the price

Southern Lion: In a 2 catcher league, who you going with if available, Jonah Heim, Cal Raleigh, Rutschman, or Langeliers?  Thanks

Justin Mason: Rutschman and Heim

Mullins: Mullins gonna bounce back, right? Healthy?

Justin Mason: I don’t know how much. He struggles vs lefties and the Orioles are loaded

Last Keeper: AL only OBP: $10 Woo or $12 Jaren Durran? (or neither). Thanks!

Justin Mason: Durran

Big Money Keepers: I traded a lot of keepers to win and don’t have many hot tickets. Would you rather just keep fewer people and have empty space on the roster or keep a high-priced but maybe at cost star (Luis Robert $30 or Devers $36, AL only OBP are the specifics)? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Give me the guys at cost.

Porcho Villa: Keeper deadline coming up. Pick two (assume cost is same, 5×5 OBP H2H): Nolan Jones, Casas, Tork, Royce, Y. Diaz, Skubal, Gray-Rod?

Justin Mason: Grayson and Royce

Justin Mason: I have to wrap up but I think I got through all of the questions.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!