Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 19th, 2022

Justin Mason: Starting as soon as I get questions in. Running a little behind because there was construction on the road.

Justin Mason: In the meantime, you should definitely follow me on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, or where ever shameless promotions are found at JustinMasonFWFB

Galen: Thoughts on Connor Joe in Pittsburgh?  Disappointed in Colorado last year, but he should get playing time.

Justin Mason: I know a lot of people may hate this trade because of the park change (and for good reason), but I do think there is a clearer path to playing time. He may start in a shortside platoon, but he could easily work his way into a full time role on a team that had only two players qualify last season.

Stephen: Thoughts on Josh Jung in dynasty formats (think FGPts scoring)?

Justin Mason: I really like Jung. I throw out pretty much all of last season because of the injury. He has hit at every level and I think the Rangers will be committed to him. I think he has a legit shot at being really good from the jump.

Beck: Hey Justin! What do you make of Gunnar Henderson’s L/R splits? He’s struggled against LHP throughout the minors.

Justin Mason: Any time a young player struggles with platoon issues, it is something to be worried about. I think he will get a chance to prove he can (or cannot) hit lefties as the Orioles aren’t quite ready to compete for real, but there is some serious downside that I don’t think the ADP is accounting for. I love the player but not at his price.

Kepler FAN: Over/Under 500 plate apperances for Max Kepler this season?  He seems to not have a place on the twins, but the shift should help him, his Savant Page is amazing, and there are a ton of trade rumors.

Justin Mason: I am going to say over barring health. I think his defense really helps his case. I have always been a huge fan and I don’t think that there is a ton of reason to fear he can’t play everyday. The shift rules may help some as you mentioned, but lets remember, it is not really a “ban” on the shift, but a reduction in it, so don’t go overboard on players like Kepler.

Goose: Should I feel comfortable enough with William Contreras in Milwaukee to shop JT Realmuto in my dynasty league?

Justin Mason: I think this depends on the depth of your league. In a shallower league, I think that Contreras may be close to league average. In a deeper league, he is a clear cut above. That being said, I think trading Realmuto should get you a haul, so I am open to that

Bob: Prediction for landing spot for Brian Anderson?

Justin Mason: Who needs a mediocre third baseman/outfielder? Detroit?

Justin Mason: Oakland?

Chip: I have both Franco and Bichette in Ottoneu for about the same price. How wide of a difference do you think there is in their performance next year? Does it make sense to sell on Franco to take advantage of the name value difference without sacrificing a ton of fantasy value?

Justin Mason: Man, I wish I played more Ottoneu, but I really haven’t gotten into the format. Hit up Chad Young

Guest: Any names that you like deeper into the catcher pool?  Have a dynasty roster (1 catcher OBP roto league) where I have a pretty darn good roster, but literally no one at catcher right now.  Cycled through some of the lower end names during the year (Narvaez, Stassi, Carson Kelly).  Amongst those and names like Elias Diaz, Garver, Bethancourt, Yan Gomes is there anyone that you’d find mildly interesting?

Justin Mason: Fortes, Garver, O’Hoppe, Bethancourt, Higgins, Zavala

Kate: Think Gallo starts in a platoon in Minnesota?

Justin Mason: Potentially,. Minnesota likes to platoon a fair amount when they can, but platoons are only good when a team can stay healthy and this outfield has a lot of injury risk.

Who Me: Who are your late late round targets for draft champion leagues?

Justin Mason: So far in my early drafts, I have multiple shares of TJ Friedl, Dean Kremer, Jonathan Aranda, Jonathan Hernandez, and James Outman

Galen: Who loses playing time with Adam Frazier signing with Baltimore?

Justin Mason: Hard to tell right now, but it might be Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo.

Kate: So after Senga was signed, everyone kind of assumed Peterson / Megill were out of the rotation to start.  Since then, I believe I’ve heard that Senga won’t be ready to go on a normal 5 day schedule (at least to start the year).  Do you think the Mets go with some kind of 6 man rotation to start the year (modified or otherwise) with one of those guys filling that 6th spot?

Justin Mason: I think that is a fair assumption, but I also heard that they may look to trade Carrasco at some point. Right now Peterson and Megill are on the outside looking in, but I think it works itself out one way or another.

Lee: Does Kevin Gausman maintain the level of dominance he’s shown over the past two years, or do we start to see strikeouts drop off and FIP creep back up towards ERA? How badly do you think the drop off will be?

Justin Mason: I am a believer in what we have seen. My projections are in line with what we saw last year.

Kate: I know you guys talked about Yoshida on the pod, but I’m forgetting at the moment what your read was.  My quick, uneducated assessment is there’s not enough power or speed here to get excited about and he’s probably an empty average / OBP.  However, I’ve been guilty of underestimating these smaller / hit tool guys’ power upsides in the past.  Is there any way for us to guesstimate on the power without seeing him take several hundred ABs?

Justin Mason: I think the power is the big question mark. I kind of comp’ed him to teammate Verdugo as a teens power guy with a handful of SBs and a good OBP which means lots of runs on top of the Boston lineup. I think the hype may get out of control though.

Ty: Who do you like out of the four catchers on the Mets’ current roster to secure a starting or platoon spot? And if McCann or Nido gets traded, are any of them worth drafting late?

Justin Mason: If Alvarez makes the team, he is the one I like, but until they trade or DFA someone, I think the answer is no one.

Johnny5Alive: Swanson move to Chicago gonna increase his HR output?

Justin Mason: The xHRs say yes, but I am not going overboard on that. I would probably project like 27/15 feels like an optimistic, but not crazy line.

Johnny5Alive: Does the mets signing of narvaez indicate that they don’t think alvarez is ready? or that they are going to use alvarez at DH since his defense isn’t ready? or is it some 4D chess to have 4 catchers on the roster?

Justin Mason: I wonder if he becomes part of a trade for something else. I don’t understand the move to be honest.

Johnnie LeMaster: Jung or Baty for future?

Justin Mason: Jung, but I still love Baty.

Chris: Senga worth THE top pick in a FYPD if you want to compete in 2 years? Thanks!

Justin Mason: I guess, but this is a loaded FYPD, so I think I either take the highest upside player or trade the pick for more picks/an impact player.

Dwilly: What kind of player is the 5th pick in a fypd worth in a trade? I think I might be over valuing the pick.

Justin Mason: Got to give me more information on the league depth and format. This is a loaded draft though, so don’t sell short on the high picks.

Rickey: What do you see as realistic in playing time expectations for Brandon Crawford, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada? How much should their prices drop with Correa in town?

Justin Mason: I don’t think their playing time changes at all. Crawford moves to third and Thairo is the second baseman with Flores at first. If the Giants bring in someone else, then there are questions.

Not Dayton Moore: Rumor mill has been full of chatter that new special advisor Dayton Moore caught Josh Jung crankin it and he is now available in exchange for pitching. How does the possibility of Pablo Lopez the Ranger affect his value.

Justin Mason: Feel like that is some wishful thinking. Jung isn’t getting moved unless the Rangers get an overpay.

Justin Mason: Need more questions…

Guest: Darvish or McKenzie?   H2H keeper league

Justin Mason: In a keeper, I lean McKenzie because of Darvish’s health, but it is close.

Oddball Herrera: Would you be keeping Elly more at a lotto ticket cost, or at a “future star” cost?

Justin Mason: I think future star cost.

Clay: Been in on Edward Olivares for a few years. Between injuries and just lack of playing time, he keeps frustrating me. Any chance he ever becomes a .800 ops guy while getting consistent playing time.

Justin Mason: Man, the Royals hate him with a “Motte-like intensity” #06010. Reports are that the Royals may trade Michael A. Taylor to give Isbel more time. I am still taking dart throws on Oliveras, but I don’t trust KC.

The Final Boss: How are you adjusting Justin Turner in Fenway? Have a feeling he might wear out the monster.

Justin Mason: I am feeling like I have no idea what Boston is doing. I think it is a decent landing spot for him because he could hit cleanup there and likely is a DH most days which can help him stay on the field.

Johnny5Alive: Does Kim stand to lose the most playing time when Tatis comes back?

Justin Mason: Nah, I think Tatis goes to the outfield for most days.

Ty: Coors does have a mild effect on performance, this is undoubtable. How big of a concern are the projections of players like McMahon, Brendan Rodgers, Daza, and Blackmon, especially in terms of stolen bases and other peripherals less Coors-inflated? In particular, McMahon’s projection is pretty garbage, despite him putting up plenty of value every year.

Justin Mason: I think McMahon has been one of my favorite targets this year. He actually improved his zone contact in 2022 in spite of the production being down a little. The power was back in the second half, so I like his depressed cost. I have never been a Rodgers guy and Daza is boring. Blackmon is a bit scary after his second half power outage, but he plays every day so he can accumulate.

Guest: what do you expect from james outman? he is on my bubble in a dynasty league

Justin Mason: There is some pop/speed and a lot of swing and miss, but right now it appears there is a path to playing time. The minor league StatCast numbers are really intriguing though. I would try and hold depending on your other options.

Thomas: Another Senga question: Where would you rank him in a FYPD? 15 teams dynasty (OBP).

Justin Mason: He is in the top 5-6 depending on your team. If you are competing for this year, there is a discussion to take him as high as 2. If you are rebuilding, I think I have him around 5.

Galen: Steamer has a pretty optimistic projection for Paredes. 2nd to only Altuve among AL 2B in wRC+.  Does he find enough at bats with the Rays to be mixed league relevant?

Justin Mason: I think he will off and on throughout the season depending on your league depth. Probably does in a 15 teamer, but not really in a 12.

Dwilly: Regarding 5th pick in FYPD: 30 team dynasty, h2h, 40man roster, 25 minors, deep.

Justin Mason: I think I want a top 50 ish prospect or a pretty good MLB piece. I love this draft.

Guest: keep 8 forever league, with weird hitting stats that basically equate to a points league where K’s are a negative. my 8th spot comes down to arozarena, kirk, vinnie p, gunnar, josh jung, george kirby, or emmanuel clase. who ya got?

Justin Mason: That is tough not knowing the points format, but I think I lean Henderson on upside alone. Vinnie P is really tempting in a point-like format though.

Taximan: Best landing spot for Segura, and where he actually ends up?

Justin Mason: Dodgers or White Sox

Guest: What are the chances Baltimore starts the year with both Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall in the rotation?

Justin Mason: I think it is 50/50 Grayson and Hall. The Orioles lack talent in the rotation, but have a lot of depth if they want to delay their service time.

Guest: Need a 2B. Which trade would you rather make (and which ones are close enough to be realistic in a dynasty)?: Arenado for Altuve or Schwarber, Buxton, or Gallen for Chisholm? League uses 7 hitting cats, with OBP, XBH, and SLG (and no BA)

Justin Mason: That is tough, but I think I would look to get Chisholm for Buxton

Shifting Thoughts: With the shifts being outlawed, what does this do to fantasy baseball? GB pitchers era jump a little while pull hitters see a babip increase? Do teams value infield defense more which affects playing time? (Nolan Gorman owner)

Justin Mason: Remember, they aren’t banned completely. You just can’t overshift extremely. I think there will be some changes for GB guys and for hitters that pull, but it won’t be super extreme as pitchers will react to this as well.

Wiski: Who ends the year in LF in Texas? Are Justin Foscue or Dustin Harris a possibility?

Justin Mason: Harris is more likely since he is on the 40-man, but Foscue is more interesting long term. Don’t think either has a major role this season TBH.

Gross Nationals Product: Top FYPD picks should be …

Justin Mason: Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Holliday, Elijah Green, Senga, Collier,

Ramp: 12 team keeper league. I have been offered Juan Soto for Otahni. Does Soto’s youth make this a trade I should consider?

Justin Mason: I guess I would consider it in a Weekly lineups league with OBP. I think I still want Ohtani in most other formats.

Ken: Would I be crazy to trade away $24 Judge in AL only to get a $17 Witt Jr?  Will there values be worlds apart again?

Justin Mason: I would do that especially if I get to keep Witt a long time.

Chip: What do Rodon’s numbers look like in NYY in the ALE?

Justin Mason: I think they take a small step back in NY, but just because of the park change, but ultimately, he is a stud as long as he is healthy.

Justin Mason: Thanks for chatting with me! If you have other questions you should definitely follow me on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, or where ever shameless promotions are found at JustinMasonFWFB.