Justin Mason Baseball Chat – June 26th, 2018

8:59

Justin Mason: Hey everyone! Let’s have a great chat today! Just a reminder that I will answer as many questions as I can, but please don’t repeat questions. If I can’t get to your questions then hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justinmasonfwfb.

9:00	Von Hayes: Any idea what is wrong with Carlos Martinez? Any chance he is still hurt?

9:01	Justin Mason: I think they may have rushed him back a bit. I hope he is just still building up arm strength and not hurting, but I did trade him recently in Tout.

9:01	Wig: Hiya Justin… would you trade Vlady Jr for Albies?

9:01	Justin Mason: If I was competing this year I would for sure.

9:02	Kiermaier’s Dashing Good Looks: What is your outlook on the Yankees rotation once Tanaka gets healthy enough to return? Will a tough decision have to be made between German and Lasagna or do you potentially see a 6 man rotation?

9:02	Justin Mason: I think Loaisiga loses out. A six man rotation might work, but I don’t know that they want to do that necessarily.

9:02	Klew: Need to drop either Hamels or Taillon. Which guy?

9:03	Justin Mason: Hamels.

9:03	Matty P: Lance Lynn a good streamer today in a 10 team mixer?

9:03	Justin Mason: I think there is a real chance weather postpones that game. Otherwise he would be.

9:03	Andy: You starting Junis tonight vs. the brewers?

9:03	Justin Mason: nope

9:04

Ozzie Ozzie ozzie: Hey Justin – I’m in a dynasty keep forever league and was recently offered my berrios and jalen beeks for his wil Myers Willie Calhoun and his (probably) late first round pick in next years supplemental draft (think a prospect ranked in the 40’s to 50’s). I’m currently in a rebuild cycle but hoping to compete by 2020. Thoughts?

9:05	Justin Mason: Don’t love it, but I am a big Calhoun fan. You should get more for Berrios considering his age and growth.

9:05	Webster: Who would you rather have RoS: Joey Bats or LoMo?

9:05	Justin Mason: Gulp… Lomo I guess.

9:05	Andy: 12 team mixed head to head league. What the hell do I do with odorizzi? He’s been awful. Thinking of dropping him to stream Kuhl vs. Mets tonight. Thoughts?

9:05	Justin Mason: I have no issue dropping Odorizzi.

9:06	Tim: Have you lost any confidence in Paxton after his last two starts, or do you see that as just two tough matchups and expect him to resume his previous dominance?

9:06	Justin Mason: I think he will be fine. As long as he is healthy, he is a top 20 pitcher.

9:06	Jay: You taking a flier on Joey Bats at this point? .924 OPS over the last month across 78 PA’s.

9:06	Justin Mason: Nope.

9:06	Matty P: Thoughts on Freddy Peralta?

9:07	Justin Mason: I think he belongs in the bullpen long term. Struggles with command and a lack of a third pitch. Streamable versus bad teams, but there will be unexpected blowups.

9:07	B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: Help me feel okay about dropping Eric Thames? I would slot D Murph into the lineup instead. Projections just say ‘meh’ about Mr Muscles.

9:08	Justin Mason: Thames is a power only guy. Right now he has playing time, so if you can afford the average woes, he has value.

9:08	Jay: Do the Rangers ever bump The Dentist up from the 9 hole? Ridiculous that he’s batting this low

9:09	Justin Mason: If he continues to hit like he has in June, he should. The May numbers are still influencing the lineup it looks like.

9:09	Kev: Any confidence that Dozier will rebound (again)?

9:09	Justin Mason: I do. I would be patient.

9:09	Wig: Jon Gray is better than his rank right now… his BABIP is .380… right?

9:10	Justin Mason: He has to be, but he is a guy that pitches in Coors and still makes bad choices in pitches. He has to rebound, but I don’t know that he “ figures it out” this season.

9:10	Rouse: ETA for Eloy? Vlad Jr.?

9:11	Justin Mason: Next year for both, with a small chance for a September call up this year.

9:11	Al: Which team are you supporting the world cup?

9:11	Justin Mason: I don’t watch soccer.

9:12	Daniel L: Is Manny Margot turning it around? What should we expect from him for the rest of the year?

9:14

Justin Mason: Looks like it, but that comes with a caveat. In spite of hitting .348/.416/.565 in June, he has been caught on all four stolen base attempts. That being said, he is hitting the ball really hard right now and getting it in the air, so I think we can expect maybe 5-10 homers and 10+ stolen bases the rest of the way with like a .270 average.

9:14	Rick: Shelby Miller (great baseball name) hit 97mph with his heater last night…assuming it takes him a few turns through the rotation to get his control back, think he can be a decent contributor in the second half?

9:15	Justin Mason: I think he will be inconsistent. He struggles mechanically which will lead to walks and homers. Hopefully the humidor can stifle the latter, but he will not have a great WHIP. Cheap source of K’s potentially.

9:15	Dan: Sit Harper down in a H2H and start Puig until harper shows a few more signs of life?

9:15	Justin Mason: no. No matter what the ESPN The Body Issue suggests.

9:15	Gabe: Kyle Tucker a good spec add in a keeper? I dropped Senzel and have room for a guy who might contribute this season.

9:16	Justin Mason: Yes. I think he is the next impact prospect up.

9:16	Lloyd Christmas: Over half of Newcomb’s starts this year have come against terrible offenses, is now the time to sell?

9:17	Justin Mason: I think now is a good time to sell, but he does have the Mets and the Marlins in the division and there are a lot of bad teams in the NL, so he will get to play a lot of bad teams. That being said, he faded really hard last season and I would be afraid of a repeat.

9:18	John Gibbons: I traded Corey Seager for Jose Martinez and Sean Manaea for Eddie Rosario, please tell me how brilliant I am.

9:19	Justin Mason: I am assuming this is a dynasty league, so I commend the trade. Seager is an overrated asset long term, so I do like the move.

9:19	Matty P: no question this time, just wanted to say I really enjoy your work

9:19	Justin Mason: Best question yet!

9:19	Stan K: Robbie Ray coming off the DL. Start him or sit him? (Have to drop Skaggs or Lynn to make roster room.)

9:20	Justin Mason: I am sitting him. Hasn’t built up enough pitches in rehab to go deep. Could be really short outing if his control isn’t great.

9:20	Lloyd Christmas: Dylan Covey or Dereck Rodriguez?

9:20	Justin Mason: Covey.

9:20	Mike : I totally agree that Sean Newcomb’s hard to drop given the feast that is the NL East. But would you trade Sean Newcomb for Eduardo Rodriguez? I fear the beast that is the AL East.

9:21	Justin Mason: I would because I believe in E-Rod’s talent a lot more.

9:21	Klew: ROS thoughts on Cueto once he returns?

9:21	Justin Mason: If he is healthy he is a top 30 pitcher. The health is a big question mark though.

9:21	ingooodguys: watched the “Naked Gun” the other day, the baseball game scene is classic

9:21	Justin Mason: Really underrated film.

9:21	Mason Jar: Who do you like ros – Albies or Justin Upton?

9:21	Justin Mason: Albies.

9:22	Matt: Thoughts on a Ohtani for Kershaw trade base in dynasty? Kershaw would be a rental, and Ohtani is a keeper at $24 (going to $26, $28 then doubling). I’m looking to throw in some pick upgrades, and a Kyle Gibson-caliber throw in. Hows the general valuation?

9:22	Justin Mason: That all depends on the health of Ohtani. Worth the gamble for a rental. Just be prepared to potentially get absolutely nothing from Ohtani because that is somewhat likely.

9:23	JPL: re: Calhoun, when do you think he gets the call and do you think he outperforms Heyward and or Polanco?

9:23	Justin Mason: I think he gets the call this summer and definitely outperforms both

9:23	Al: Points h2h.. please rank.. German, Beiber, F Peralta

9:23	Justin Mason: That is the order for me.

9:23	Nolaaa: Is Nola a keeper worthy starter in a 4 keeper league. I believe he is but others do not

9:24	Justin Mason: If he is healthy, he likely will be a top 10-15 pitcher coming into next season.

9:25	Big Tuna : Buying into the recent Kole Calhoun improvements? Scooping him in any leagues? I could drop Jay, Parra or Dentist

9:25	Justin Mason: Nah. Calhoun is low ceiling/high risk.

9:25	Big Tuna : Wily Peralta Worth bidding on?

9:25	Justin Mason: If you are desperate for saves, sure.

9:25	Al: How would you rank the following RoS – Teoscar, Puig, Muncy and Lowrie

9:26	Justin Mason: Puig, Muncy, Teoscar, Lowrie.

9:26	Andrew: I’ve got Cervelli at catcher but have been using Flowers as a replacement. Should I just pick up Suzuki and alternate a Flowers/Suzuki at catcher?

9:26	Justin Mason: no

9:26	Orange: Is Rhys Hoskins back? His struggles in May now seem more like a prolonged slump, and less like a glaring issue.

9:26	Justin Mason: I think he is. I traded CMart for him in Tout.

9:26	tacopocket: any concerns with Ray? I know he won’t do what he did last year but he’ll be ok, right? I can trade moustakas for him and I’m wondering if I should pull the trigger.

9:27	Justin Mason: There will always be concerns with him, but he is a high upside gamble. No problem making that deal if you need a pitching lottery ticket.

9:27	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: 10-team, H2H. Haven’t lost a week yet this season, and easily in first place. Can this staff take me to the promised land (W/L/QS): deGrom, Greinke, Quintana, Buehler, Castillo, G. Richards, J. Nelson.

9:28	Justin Mason: Depends on health of a number of those guys, but I think it could. Wouldn’t mind an upgrade in a 10-teamer if possible.

9:28	Kirk: Are you starting CMart tonight against CLE?

9:28	Justin Mason: No

9:28	Bob K: Is Reynaldo Lopez worth rostering in a 12 team QS league over someone like Kyle Freeland or Domingo German?

9:28	Justin Mason: over Freeland, yes. Over German, no.

9:28	Clemson: Lasagna is going to be innings capped. He’s the obvious candidate to drop from the rotation when Tanaka is back.

9:29	Justin Mason: mmmmm…. lasagna

9:29	TJ: Murphy isn’t playing 2B at all, but for fantasy purposes it doesn’t really matter…it injury related? Think he’s going to be amazing again?!? Waited SO long for that chump.

9:29	Justin Mason: I think he will be fine, but maybe see less at bats than we thought for a while.

9:29	Webster: Over/Under: Jung Ho Kang hits 15 HR’s this season.

9:29	Justin Mason: under

9:29	Tim: Who’d you take ROS: Simmons or Crawford?

9:29	Justin Mason: Simmons.

9:30	Whiff Whiff Whiff: At what point is Gallo droppable in 12-team 6×6 roto with OBP and SLG (no AVG)? Even without AVG, he’s whiffing so much, his OPS isn’t great.

9:30	Justin Mason: He is droppable in a league that shallow, but I think I would hold if I could.

9:30	jackie: jon gray at sf or your boy gibson at chisox this week. roto league. thanks

9:30	Justin Mason: Gibson.

9:30	Griff: Maeda or Quintana ROS?

9:30	Justin Mason: Quintana

9:30	Dave: Who’s the better option to stash for 2019: Lewis Brinson or Franchy Cordero?

9:30	Justin Mason: Brandon.

9:30	Justin Mason: Brinson

9:30	Justin Mason: stupid autocorrect.

9:30	Ethan: Billy Hamilton has had a great week, obp over 400 and more bb’s than k’s. SSS or is there hope for

9:31	Justin Mason: both?

9:31	John: I know he’s made of glass and all, but what in the hell is wrong with Cespedes? Been out 6 weeks already for a ‘minor’ injury. Pollock got cleared before him for chrissake.

9:31	Justin Mason: He caught Mets fever.

9:31	Tim: How do you think you’d rank Soto for the ’19 campaign? Thinking of making him my keeper…

9:32	Justin Mason: He is going to be a top 50 player in drafts I think. Maybe even higher. It will be too rich for me, but I understand why

9:32	Mike : Is Stroman worth picking up and dropping either Clayton Richard or Freddy Peralta for (deep 16-mixed)?

9:32	Justin Mason: I would drop peralta for him.

9:33	Matt: Matt Kemp hasn’t hit in like….3 days. Is he done?

9:33	Justin Mason: lol

9:33	Wig: Is Albies a top 10 player? Not just 2nd base…

9:33	Justin Mason: No, but I think he could be close at some point in his career.

9:33	BIg Joey : Do we see Yordan Alvarez, Danny Jansen or Peter Alonso in the MLB this season?

9:33	Justin Mason: I don’t think so.;

9:33	TJ: No question, here…but wanted to let you know that Gregory Polanco really hurt my feelings again this year. I made fun of my leaguemates for letting him slip to the 11th round. I am a fool.

9:34	Justin Mason: I am with you. And I will probably fall for it again next year.

9:34	j: hey justin.. i need quality SP and have speed to burn. would you give either cain or dee for either morton or folty?

9:34	Justin Mason: I would move Cain for Morton if I needed pitching. Love Cain, but the health risk is always present and Morton has been great.

9:35	vft: who do you think ends up as the top 5 finishers in stolen bases?

9:35	Justin Mason: Turner, Gordon, Hamilton, Marte, Taylor

9:35	Tim: Trade Posey for Sanchez straight up if you needed HR and OPS?

9:35	Justin Mason: Not with Sanchez hitting the DL.

9:36	Chris: Danny Murphy just shaking the rust off or is he still hobbled? Don’t feel like the Nats would’ve rushed him back if he wasn’t 100%, but just doesn’t look like himself out there.

9:36	Justin Mason: I think it is a little of both honestly. I think he wanted to get back since it is the last year of his deal.

9:37	Chris: just 4 more games and Muncy will be OF eligible in ESPN. that’s gotta increase his value, eh?

9:37	Justin Mason: Not too much, but it is always nice to have flexibility.

9:37

Matt: In a dynasty league, how do you balance the certainty of an owner who does the absolute bare minimum effort to keep his team up with the “grass is always greener” difficulty of trying to find someone to replace them? Particularly in dynasty, there’s at least a 1-2 year learning curve for valuation, etc…so will always be a net hit up front.

9:38	Justin Mason: I am of the belief that once you pay for your team, it’s yours to ruin. I only kick people out for neglect or collusion.

9:38	Von Hayes: What kind of value would you be looking to get back if you are shopping Juan Soto

9:38	Justin Mason: I’d be asking for a top 50 player. Take a top 75.

9:39	Guest: Who of the following AL RPs are closing after the trade deadline….Treinen, Tepera, Joe Jimenez, Hector Rondon, Romo? Yes, I have all 5.

9:39	Justin Mason: Jimenez and Treinen.

9:39	Joe Joe: Thoughts on Jose Ramirez in roto dynasty? Still prefer Harper and Machado over him in that order?

9:39	Justin Mason: I would take Harper in dynasty, but Ramirez over MAchado.

9:40	BIg Joey : I’m done for the season (12 team, 6 keep forever) and begun loading up on prospects, hopefully will strike gold and sell one at the trade deadline or keep as my 6th. I picked up Tucker, Jansen and Willie Calhoun…. any other suggestions? (Not Vlad, Eloy, Whitley, Tatis jr. or Kopech)

9:40	Justin Mason: Huira, Adell, Trammell. Riley, Luzardo

9:40	Guest: Does Barreto stay up once Chapman comes off the DL?

9:41	Justin Mason: God I hope so, but at worst he is back when Lowrie gets traded at the deadline.

9:41	Joe Joe: Have an offer of JRam and McCullers for Harper and Morton 12tm Roto dynasty.

9:41	Justin Mason: I could do that.

9:41	Guest: What kind of impact do you see if/when Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Tucker and Willie Calhoun are called up?

9:42	Justin Mason: Eloy won’t be up until September at the earliest. Tucker and Calhoun could be studs out of the gate. Love all three

9:42	Tiny Tim: This is my staff in an 1 1 team QS points league. I have too many pitchers and need to drop at least one. Thoughts? Bauer, Berrios, McCullers, Hill, Mikolas, Maeda, Bieber.

9:42	Justin Mason: Drop Hill.

9:42	Jerry: Safe to drop Smoak in a 12 team redraft league?

9:42	Justin Mason: yes

9:42	Oyster Burns: montas or loiasiga ros? you think both or neither are decent options?

9:42	Justin Mason: Montas for me because he has the clearer path to a long term role.

9:43	Jerry: Are Miguel Sano and Justin Smoak droppable in 12 team redraft leagues?

9:43	Justin Mason: I would hold Sano, but I am a sucker for him.

9:43	Wes : Bregman vs Rendon ROS?

9:43	Justin Mason: Bregman.

9:43	Bo: Is Marco Estrada good again?

9:44	Justin Mason: This is natural rebound to the mean. I think he will be better, but still have his struggles from time to time.

9:44	Matt: My Kemp comment was only half joking. He has helped to catapult me from 8th to 4th in my roto league. But I’m petrified of what I view as an inevitable and sudden stop in production. I don’t expect him to finish as a top 60 player, but should I be as worried as I am (this season only).

9:45	Justin Mason: For sure you should be worried with his health history. Talent is obviously still there, but I would be surprised to see him stay on the field all year. Great selling opportunity for a guy that cost you nothing.

9:46	BIg Joey : How is Corey Seager an overrated asset? Before his injury, he was a consistent 130+ wRC+ hitter, and in the first half of 2017 before he got hurt, he was at like 150 wRC+. We’re looking at .300+ 30 HR 100RBI for the next 5 seasons

9:47	Justin Mason: Bad back on a guy that will eventually have to move to 3B where the bat won’t play as nicely. I don’t know if he will ever be healthy to live up to those expectations.

9:47	NJD: Time to sell high on Snell? Nervous about the division and Rays selling off run support. If so, who to target?

9:47	Justin Mason: I am not. I am fully bought in.

9:47	Nats GM: I can see Machado in a nats jersey. We have the kids to make the moves and we can move rendon to second. Who says no?

9:48	Justin Mason: I was just talking about this on the FWFB podcast. Can even move Turner if MAchado demands on staying at short. Love this idea.

9:48	Wally Canseco: Start Arrieta today?

9:48	Justin Mason: I think I will pass.

9:48	Matt S: strategy question: Is it better to be dominant in 7 of 10 categories and suck at 3 or trade some of your dominance for more balance? 10 team 5 x 5 h2h

9:49	Justin Mason: Depends on the categories to be honest. I love punting, but it has to be in categories that have weekly variance like AVG and SBs.

9:49	Ted: I have Eloy and Vlad Jr. stashed in a keeper league and have their rights through 2020 season. Team is top 5 in the league but acquiring a Blackmon or Judge may put me over the top. Do I try and get either Blackmon or Judge for half a season for 2 more seasons of Eloy or Vlad Jr?

9:50	Justin Mason: Yes. Play to win now. No one remembers second place. We remember champions.

9:50	ohioastrosfan: Kang or Chris Taylor ROS?

9:50	Justin Mason: Taylor.

9:50	Lloyd Christmas: Is Bumgarner Quintana moving forward?

9:50	Justin Mason: Bum

9:50	ohioastrosfan: Is Oh a decent speculative add as Tepera might be traded?

9:50	Justin Mason: Yup.

9:51	Vegan Man!: Is Andrew Miller worth holding onto in a 12 team roto with a 180 start limit? Thanks!

9:51	Justin Mason: No, I am really worried he will be out a while.

9:51	ohioastrosfan: Dos Josh Donaldson play ok once healthy? I moved Clevinger and Devers for him early on and he’s pretty much spent the entire time on the DL. I don’t think moving him is even possible.

9:52	Justin Mason: I think he will be ok once he is 100%. The question becomes, if or when that happens. Hard to tell, but the Jays seem to be taking it slow with him to avoid setbacks.

9:52	Matt S: Hicks or Leonys Martin ROS? OBP league

9:52	Justin Mason: Martin

9:52	FLANSTER: Keuchel, Teheran or Quintana ROS ?

9:52	Justin Mason: Quintana

9:52	Vegan Man!: Bird or Keuchel in a 14 team dynasty points league? Thank you!

9:52	Justin Mason: Keuchel

9:53	Marvin: Over/under 35.5 Matt Olson homers? Top 10 first baseman next season?

9:53	Justin Mason: Just under and no.

9:53	Jeff in T.O.: Any hope for Josh Bell, or is this what he is? No real change in his batted ball profile from last year, but man, wheres the power??

9:54	Justin Mason: People forget he was never supposed to be a masher and that park doesn’t do him any favors. I think he hits more than what he has been doing, but last year was a bit of a fluke.

9:54	EG: Benched e-rod at NYY this week in favor of otavino… Over managing or good move? 12 team 5×5 roto

9:55	Justin Mason: I am ok with it.

9:55	Marvin: Is eaton a part time player? Nats really trying to play Michel Taylor as much as possible

9:55	Justin Mason: Taylor is on fire so they can afford to ease Eaton back in. I think that will change as soon as Taylor slows down.

9:56	Justin Mason: Ok guy, that’s it for today. If I didn’t get to you, hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justinmasonfwfb.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG