June Starting Pitcher Rankings
Even as the samples grow larger, pitchers are always changing making it the most volatile market in the fantasy game. This volatility is exacerbated by the tightening talent pool, no doubt due in part due to the ability of teams and players to analyze all aspects of pitching and continually tweak a pitch here or alter mechanics there to unlock a pitcher’s full potential. Following pitchers closely and staying up on those changes is part of the fun of this game.
There is also just the natural ebbs and flows of a season.
Over the course of 30 starts, a guy will have his A+ stuff for 10 starts and then be lucky to have even a single reliable pitch in 10 others leaving those middle 10 to decide their fate. Even the best get knocked around a couple times per year, don’t freak out. Meanwhile, fourth-fifth starters usually end up with 12-15 good starts over the course of a season, even if it’s a 4.75 ERA kind of season, so be careful diving headfirst if it’s the same profile posting outlier numbers. I’ve got 119 guys ranked for June and then the injured guys on their own.
The tiers are as follows:
#1s (13 SPs) – The true aces of fantasy baseball.
Must Start (21 SPs) – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them are “No Coors Field”-types, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it.
Usually Start (16 SPs) – If “No Coors Field” is 30% with the MS group, it’s more like 60-70% with this group. You need to find a reason to sit them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day or they could get smacked by a weaker opponent. If you’re rostering them, you should probably be starting them.
Spot Start (S-Shallow, D-Deep) (30 Shallow, 19 Deep SPs) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. These guys might also be US tier arms here temporarily. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a gauge for future production, especially in small samples. I decided to split the group a bit as sort of a way to identify upward or downward mobility for these guys. The shallow ones are a bit more talented and/or running hot so we’re maybe keeping a closer eye on them.
Could Start (18 SPs) – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be plucked and the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).
Injured (27 SPs) – I find it hard/worthless to rank injured guys. I just think the outlook on injured players varies so much person-to-person that you can’t really use an injured player’s ranking for anything. I will identify the tier I’d put the injured guy in when healthy, though.
Please leave your questions and comments below!
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RK | NAME | Tier | LG | TM |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Max Scherzer | #1 | NL | WAS |
2 | Justin Verlander | #1 | AL | HOU |
3 | Chris Sale | #1 | AL | BOS |
4 | Corey Kluber | #1 | AL | CLE |
5 | Gerrit Cole | #1 | AL | HOU |
6 | Luis Severino | #1 | AL | NYY |
7 | Jacob deGrom | #1 | NL | NYM |
8 | Noah Syndergaard | #1 | NL | NYM |
9 | Stephen Strasburg | #1 | NL | WAS |
10 | Aaron Nola | #1 | NL | PHI |
11 | James Paxton | #1 | AL | SEA |
12 | Madison Bumgarner | #1 | NL | SF |
13 | Zack Greinke | #1 | NL | ARI |
14 | Carlos Carrasco | MS | AL | CLE |
15 | Carlos Martinez | MS | NL | STL |
16 | Blake Snell | MS | AL | TB |
17 | Charlie Morton | MS | AL | HOU |
18 | Patrick Corbin | MS | NL | ARI |
19 | Trevor Bauer | MS | AL | CLE |
20 | Lance McCullers | MS | AL | HOU |
21 | Shohei Ohtani | MS | AL | LAA |
22 | Jose Berrios | MS | AL | MIN |
23 | Gio Gonzalez | MS | NL | WAS |
24 | Walker Buehler | MS | NL | LAD |
25 | Ross Stripling | MS | NL | LAD |
26 | Garrett Richards | MS | AL | LAA |
27 | David Price | MS | AL | BOS |
28 | Nick Pivetta | MS | NL | PHI |
29 | J.A. Happ | MS | AL | TOR |
30 | Dylan Bundy | MS | AL | BAL |
31 | Tyson Ross | MS | NL | SD |
32 | Miles Mikolas | MS | NL | STL |
33 | Eduardo Rodriguez | MS | AL | BOS |
34 | Andrew Heaney | MS | AL | LAA |
35 | Jameson Taillon | US | NL | PIT |
36 | Tanner Roark | US | NL | WAS |
37 | Kyle Hendricks | US | NL | CHC |
38 | Jose Quintana | US | NL | CHC |
39 | Mike Clevinger | US | AL | CLE |
40 | Mike Foltynewicz | US | NL | ATL |
41 | Sean Newcomb | US | NL | ATL |
42 | Michael Wacha | US | NL | STL |
43 | Dallas Keuchel | US | AL | HOU |
44 | Kyle Gibson | US | AL | MIN |
45 | Jake Arrieta | US | NL | PHI |
46 | Tyler Skaggs | US | AL | LAA |
47 | Jon Lester | US | NL | CHC |
48 | Alex Wood | US | NL | LAD |
49 | Junior Guerra | US | NL | MIL |
50 | Trevor Cahill | US | AL | OAK |
51 | Luis Castillo | SSS | NL | CIN |
52 | Joe Musgrove | SSS | NL | STL |
53 | Rick Porcello | SSS | AL | BOS |
54 | Fernando Romero | SSS | AL | MIN |
55 | Caleb Smith | SSS | NL | MIA |
56 | Vince Velasquez | SSS | NL | PHI |
57 | Jack Flaherty | SSS | NL | STL |
58 | Jakob Junis | SSS | AL | KC |
59 | Zack Godley | SSS | NL | ARI |
60 | Michael Fulmer | SSS | AL | DET |
61 | Aaron Sanchez | SSS | AL | TOR |
62 | Masahiro Tanaka | SSS | AL | NYY |
63 | Luke Weaver | SSS | NL | STL |
64 | Sonny Gray | SSS | AL | NYY |
65 | Jon Gray | SSS | NL | COL |
66 | CC Sabathia | SSS | AL | NYY |
67 | Nick Kingham | SSS | NL | PIT |
68 | Kyle Freeland | SSS | NL | COL |
69 | Sean Manaea | SSS | AL | OAK |
70 | Kevin Gausman | SSS | AL | BAL |
71 | Jake Odorizzi | SSS | AL | MIN |
72 | Marco Gonzales | SSS | AL | SEA |
73 | Nick Tropeano | SSS | AL | LAA |
74 | Dan Straily | SSS | NL | MIA |
75 | Matt Boyd | SSS | AL | DET |
76 | Cole Hamels | SSS | AL | TEX |
77 | Jose Urena | SSS | NL | MIA |
78 | Ryan Yarbrough | SSS | AL | TB |
79 | Daniel Mengden | SSS | AL | OAK |
80 | Jordan Lyles | SSS | NL | SD |
81 | Tyler Anderson | DSS | NL | COL |
82 | Chase Anderson | DSS | NL | MIL |
83 | Nathan Eovaldi | DSS | AL | TB |
84 | Marco Estrada | DSS | AL | TOR |
85 | Trevor Williams | DSS | NL | PIT |
86 | Lance Lynn | DSS | AL | MIN |
87 | Domingo German | DSS | AL | NYY |
88 | Zack Wheeler | DSS | NL | NYM |
89 | Steven Matz | DSS | NL | NYM |
90 | Steven Wright | DSS | AL | BOS |
91 | German Marquez | DSS | NL | COL |
92 | Zach Eflin | DSS | NL | PHI |
93 | Mike Minor | DSS | AL | TEX |
94 | Freddy Peralta | DSS | NL | MIL |
95 | Reynaldo Lopez | DSS | AL | CWS |
96 | Felix Hernandez | DSS | AL | SEA |
97 | Carlos Rodon | DSS | AL | CWS |
98 | Francisco Liriano | DSS | AL | DET |
99 | Brandon McCarthy | DSS | NL | ATL |
100 | Andrew Suarez | DSS | NL | SF |
101 | Jhoulys Chacin | CS | NL | MIL |
102 | Clayton Richard | CS | NL | SD |
103 | Danny Duffy | CS | AL | KC |
104 | Chad Kuhl | CS | NL | PIT |
105 | Tyler Mahle | CS | NL | CIN |
106 | Chris Stratton | CS | NL | SF |
107 | Clay Buchholz | CS | NL | ARI |
108 | Frankie Montas | CS | AL | OAK |
109 | Wade LeBlanc | CS | AL | SEA |
110 | Brent Suter | CS | NL | MIL |
111 | Trevor Richards | CS | NL | MIA |
112 | Mike Leake | CS | AL | SEA |
113 | Dylan Covey | CS | AL | CWS |
114 | Andrew Triggs | CS | AL | OAK |
115 | Chad Bettis | CS | NL | COL |
116 | Zach Davies | CS | NL | MIL |
117 | Mike Fiers | CS | AL | DET |
118 | Bartolo Colon | CS | AL | TEX |
119 | Alex Cobb | CS | AL | BAL |
NR | Clayton Kershaw | IN/#1 | NL | LAD |
NR | Johnny Cueto | IN/#1 | NL | SF |
NR | Yu Darvish | IN/MS | NL | CHC |
NR | Robbie Ray | IN/MS | NL | ARI |
NR | Jimmy Nelson | IN/MS | NL | MIL |
NR | Chris Archer | IN/MS | AL | TB |
NR | Danny Salazar | IN/US | AL | CLE |
NR | Kenta Maeda | IN/US | NL | LAD |
NR | Rich Hill | IN/US | NL | LAD |
NR | Matt Shoemaker | IN/US | AL | LAA |
NR | Ervin Santana | IN/US | AL | MIN |
NR | Hyun Jin Ryu | IN/US | NL | LAD |
NR | Michael Soroka | IN/SSS | NL | ATL |
NR | Marcus Stroman | IN/SSS | AL | TOR |
NR | Joey Lucchesi | IN/SSS | NL | SD |
NR | Jake Faria | IN/SSS | AL | TB |
NR | Julio Teheran | IN/DSS | NL | ATL |
NR | Drew Pomeranz | IN/DSS | AL | BOS |
NR | Yonny Chirinos | IN/DSS | NL | PIT |
NR | Jeff Samardzija | IN/DSS | NL | SF |
NR | Ivan Nova | IN/CS | NL | PIT |
NR | Jeremy Hellickson | IN/CS | NL | WAS |
NR | Adam Wainwright | IN/CS | NL | STL |
NR | Miguel Gonzalez | IN/CS | AL | CWS |
NR | Martin Perez | IN/CS | AL | TEX |
NR | Kendall Graveman | IN/DS | AL | OAK |
NR | Ryan Carpenter | IN/DS | AL | DET |
Down goes Fulmer!
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/sporer-report-8-michael-fulmers-mid-game-meltdowns/