Jumping on the Brandon Drury Bandwagon

The 2016 season obviously has not gotten off to the start that the Arizona Diamondbacks envisioned when they signed Zack Greinke and acquired Shelby Miller via trade. At the same time, there have been several success stories throughout the roster, particularly in the field. Paul Goldschmidt is his typical all-world self, for the most part, and we’ve touched on the emerging Jake Lamb. One player who could use some more notoriety, though, is Brandon Drury.

Drury is still clinging to third base eligibility despite the fact that the spot is largely held down by Jake Lamb. He came up through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, but has demonstrated impressive versatility in his time with the Diamondbacks. Lucky for us, we’re not worried about what he brings to the table in terms of his defense at this point, anyway. What Drury does present with the stick, though, is a source of great intrigue, especially as he begins to see a larger opportunity at the Major League level.

It’s important to note that while Drury has posted a relatively unimpressive -0.2 WAR thus far on the season, it has to to largely with his defense, as FanGraphs has handed him a Def rating that’s somewhat deep into the negative. In terms of his offense, though, which is all we’re worried about, Drury has actually stood out in a number of respects.

With a slash that features an even .300 batting average (7th), a .329 on-base percentage (18th), and an .849 OPS (8th), Drury has established himself among the better offensive players that maintain any sort of eligibility at the position. His tendency to find himself in or lingering around the top ten among third sackers consistently continues with his wOBA (.361 – 9th) and his wRC+ (121 – 12th). That latter figure paints him as an above average offensive player, which is exactly what Brandon Drury is establishing himself as.

Drury has spent the better part of the year absolutely mashing baseballs. His 39.2% hard hit rate is 8th among third basemen (just one notch below Jake Lamb, who sits at 39.3%), to go along with his 20.8% linedrive rate, which sits just outside the top ten. He’s demonstrated a knack for hitting for extra bases, with a .220 ISO that ranks 10th. Additionally, his flyball rate, at 28.8%, coupled with that penchant for hitting the ball hard, lends itself to his impressive 19.4% HR/FB ratio, a mark that is good for third among third basemen. That trails only Manny Machado and Todd Frazier at the position, which aren’t terrible names to be near in the offensive mix.

His spray chart, courtesy of Brooks, helps to put that into more of a visual perspective:

That linedrive, in particular, contact comes from a variety of areas, as Drury covers the plate extremely well:

That’s a lot of hard contact coming from a great variety of spots. Which speaks to Drury’s ability to cover the zone. But if there’s one “defect” that people may tend to acknowledge with Drury at this point, in might be his inability to draw a walk. He’s currently sporting a minuscule 3.2% walk rate, which is easily the lowest among the third base group. At the same time, though, while it might limit his on-base opportunities more down to when he hits his way on, it’s not as if he’s trading walks for strikeouts. His 16.5% strikeout rate isn’t astronomical, as it’s the 16th highest mark among the group.

Drury is simply an aggressive hitter. Even with a strikeout rate that isn’t completely terrible, he’s still swinging at 33.9% of pitches outside of the strike zone, the second highest percentage among the group. Even so, he’s maintaining a solid contact rate of 79.4%. When he’s managing to make the type of contact that he makes with regularity and cover the zone as well as he does in making that type of contact, you can afford to give a little bit in the walk department. Could he draw a few more and drive that OBP up? Absolutely, and that’s something that can come with his continued development as a hitter. For now, though, he’s doing a wonderful job of covering the zone effectively with his swing and it’s paying dividends for him.

Even better, aside from the idea that he covers the zone so well, is the fact that Drury isn’t necessarily biased against a certain pitch type. He’s averaged an exit velocity of at least 90 MPH against all three of fastballs, offspeed, and breaking stuff. That linedrive contact that we keep referring to is being made at least 25% of the time against all three. The balance there is an important element to note.

The expectation is that Drury will continue to develop as a hitter, and that’s where we could see some of those improvements take place. He may not need to overhaul anything mechanical, just work on his approach and mental side in order to continue to maintain consistent development at the plate. At the same time, though, the Diamondbacks, and prospective fantasy owners, have to be very encouraged by what they’ve seen from Drury thus far.

This isn’t a guy that is going to walk much, if at all. He’s aggressive, and with the way that the game is viewed at this point in time, some people tend to shy away from that. But Drury makes it work by covering the zone effectively and making hard contact on a consistent basis, regardless of pitch type. Because of that, he should be able to maintain a decent BABIP and, subsequently, continue to reach base at a quality rate, even if he doesn’t walk much at this point in time. When you add that idea to the fact that he’s going to provide you with plenty of power, and it’s no wonder I am firmly on the Brandon Drury bandwagon at this point in time.