Josh Reddick & Rich Hill Head South on the PCH

Last week, Eno reminded us that baseball players are actually human and do feel emotion when traded, especially on a moment’s notice at the trade deadline. Luckily for both Josh Reddick and Rich Hill, they won’t have to travel far to get to their new destinations, as both were traded together to the Dodgers, just five to six hours south of Oakland. Google Maps tells me that the quickest route is via I-5, though the scenic Pacific Coast Highway is another option. Sadly though, they would have to reroute as they approach the area affected by the wildfires near Big Sur. So let’s check the park factors to determine how the change in venue may affect each player’s performance.

Rich Hill has enjoyed a renaissance season, proving that last year’s tiny four game sample of dominance was no fluke. Of course, injuries have cost him starts and he’s currently on the disables list with a blister. As usual, all else being equal, we can expect the move to the National League to be a big positive for his strikeout rate, which is already elite.

We think of both home park as pitcher friendly and the “Basic” factor confirms that this is indeed the case. Overall, they are essentially the same level of friendliness. The big differences comes from the triples and home run factors. Oakland is triple friendly, while Dodger Stadium is quite stingy. On the other hand, Oakland Coliseum is one of the toughest parks to hit a home run, while Dodger Stadium boosts home runs marginally. With a microscopic 3.2% HR/FB rate, Hill was going to face regression and a higher home run rate regardless of where he pitches the rest of his games. But his high ground ball and strikeout rates mean that he’s not going to allow many fly balls to begin with, so even a jump in HR/FB rate isn’t going to notably hamper his results.

Oakland slightly suppresses strikeouts, but is essentially neutral for walks, while Dodger Stadium is the opposite, which is a plus for Hill. Dodgers Stadium also suppresses line drive, which is another positive.

Overall, this is an excellent move for Hill’s fantasy value, as he’ll benefit from a better strikeout environment and league. Furthermore, he should receive better run support as the Dodgers have scored more runs than the Athletics, despite not using the DH.

A thumb injury cost Josh Reddick some time this season, but he has maintained the vast majority of his strikeout rate improvement from last year, en route to a career best wOBA. Now he gets to move away from a park that was fourth toughest for left-handed home runs, to a park that actually boosts lefty homers. The singles, doubles, and triples factors are all either slightly worse or significantly worse (triples) in LA, so it would seem that his BABIP could be in trouble, though he only managed one triple with Oakland this year.

Overall, the better home run environment and lineup increases Reddick’s value. This looks like one of those infrequent instances where both a pitcher and a hitter’s values get a bump, despite moving to the same park.