Josh Naylor & Ryan McMahon Trades Fallout – ARI & COL Impact

Yesterday, I dove into the park factors to help speculate how Josh Naylor and Ryan McMahon’s new homes might impact their results. Of course, the trades have a domino effect, both on the players whose positions they are filling on their new teams, and the players who will now replace them in their former lineups. Let’s now review the fallout on the teams they were traded from.

Diamondbacks First Base

Naylor was the team’s everyday first baseman, though he did start 19 games at DH. So let’s talk about their new starting first baseman and who could benefit from additional DH slot openings.

Tristin English was recalled last Friday and is getting the first shot as the team’s everyday first baseman, having started each game since. The 28-year-old is a non-prospect and last mentioned, but unranked, in a top prospect article back in 2021. He’s had an inconsistent minor league career and has also been up and down with his performance at Triple-A. After a .391 wOBA there back in 2023, he posted just a .333 mark last year, but has bounced back to a robust .415 wOBA this year in his third tour of Triple-A duty.

He has dramatically cut down on his strikeout rate, posting a career best mark of just 14.1%. However, his SwStk% has remained stable in the low double digits, so it’s hard to believe he’ll be able to maintain such an improved strikeout rate. His walk rate is below average so he’ll need to continue posting a better than average strikeout rate to keep his OBP high.

Speaking of OBP, his BABIP has been up and down throughout his career, which is pretty normal for such a luck-driven metric. This yer, it’s up, as it stood at .368 at Triple-A this year, which combined with the low strikeout rate, resulted in a .341 batting average and .390 OBP. He’s done it thanks to a strong line drive rate and below average FB%.

That’s good for BABIP, but the low FB% hovering around 30% hampers his power potential. He did post a 16.7% HR/FB rate with above average Statcast metrics, but that resulted in just 11 home runs, for a pace in the low-to-mid twenties. That’s decent enough, but without any steals, doesn’t scream fantasy must-add.

Though English certainly deserved his promotion, it’s hard to believe that a non-competing Diamondbacks don’t have a younger player to give more of a look as their potential future at first base. It means that English likely doesn’t have a whole lot of job security. With no speed, middling power for a first baseman, and a strikeout rate and BABIP that are unlikely to be maintained in the Majors, he’s an NL-only league option only.

In the DH slot, Adrian Del Castillo just earned a bit more security, serving on the strong side of a platoon. The 25-year-old seems old to be a top prospect, but he was ranked second in the organization this season and 44th overall. The scouting grades shouldn’t get fantasy owners very excited, though, but he should have catcher eligibility in all leagues, so he could play more than a lot of alternatives at the position.

Del Castillo possesses strong plate discipline with double digit walk rates at most minor league stops. Along with the walks have come strikeouts and he last posted marks just over 27% with SwStk% marks in the mid-teens. That’s acceptable given the walk rate.

He has become an extreme fly ball hitter, posting a near 48% FB% in the minors this year, which represents the highest he has post in a season. That bodes well for his power, though I’m not convinced of how much he actually has given pedestrian HardHit% and maxEV marks at Triple-A. Still, he has posted 20% HR/FB rates his last two seasons, though he hasn’t been a big pulled fly ball go over a small sample in the Majors, so I doubt that kind of HR/FB rate is sustainable.

With some power and a strong side platoon role, Del Castillo is clearly worth starting in most leagues in the catcher slot, especially those in two catcher leagues. His value gets a boost in OBP formats thanks to his potentially strong walk rate. That said, it seems like a waste to be using him as the DH as the offensive bar is much higher.

Rockies Third Base

McMahon was the Rockies regular third baseman, even starting the majority of games against left-handers, despite a career 75 wRC+ against them. Since McMahon was traded last Friday, veteran Orlando Arcia has started three of four games there while Kyle Farmer has started the fourth.

Arcia is in the midst of an atrocious offensive performance, though it comes in just 141 PAs. He was poor last year as well, though, so we shouldn’t automatically expect a rebound. Why the Rockies continue to start him is beyond me, but the Rockies consistently baffle with their lineup decisions and even a managerial change hasn’t changed that. Arcia is obviously off the fantasy radar and it’s hard to imagine him continuing to garner regular starts.

Instead, focus your attention on Warming Bernabel. He’s no longer among the Rockies top prospects, only getting a mention in the latest article, but he has started at first base in the three games since his recall. That’s pretty bizarre though since he is primarily a third baseman, making him the obvious replacement for McMahon. Instead, by playing Bernabel at first, the Rockies are essentially choosing to start Arcia over Michael Toglia, which is just super weird.

Back to Bernabel, he’s not exactly oozing with fantasy intrigue. He doesn’t walk a whole lot, but he also doesn’t strike out often. Despite posting double digit SwStk% marks everywhere he’s ever played, he has never posted a strikeout rate higher than 21.1%, and his Triple-A mark this year sat at just 12.3%. When paired with the below average walk rate, it suggests he swings often and puts the ball in play before he gets an opportunity to strikeout or walk. That’s fine when Coors Field is home as balls in play are more valuable there than most other parks given the inflated hit factors.

Bernabel used to be an extreme flyball hitter, but that rate has come down and this year he has posted a batted ball distribution more close resembling the league average. That makes sense considering he doesn’t have a whole lot of power. He posted just a 22.8% HardHit% this season, driving a 9.3% HR/FB rate and .149 ISO. That might make him like a 10-15 homer guy over a full season, which is not very exciting from a corner guy.

However, he does supplement the homers with speed. He has stolen as many as 25 bases in a season in the minors, though swiped just 12 last year and five so far this year, for around a 10 steal pace over a full year. So that basically gives him 10/10 potential, which seems pretty boring, but definitely plays in deep mixed and NL-only leagues. His potentially strong strikeout rate could also result in a respectable batting average.

You would have thought McMahon’s trade would have given Toglia another shot, but he actually last started on the day McMahon was traded. Toglia has obviously been disappointing this year, posting a 56 wRC+ after a mini breakout 98 mark last year, but he clearly has more potential to deliver value to the team than Arcia!

The issue so far has been his strikeouts, as his already high strikeout rate has surged even higher to 38.5%. Since his walk rate has dropped back into single digits, it has resulted in a sub-.300 OBP. His power has also collapsed, as his HardHit% is down significantly and Barrel% nearly cut in half after an elite mark last year. I don’t know if the Rockies decide to wake up one day and give Toglia another chance to start at first, moving Bernabel to third, and whether Toglia even rebounds if he does get handed his job back. But he at least has the potential to contribute in fantasy leagues, and is therefore worth monitoring for increased playing time.