Jon Niese: Consistently Boring, Therefore Useful

by
December 27, 2012

Jon Niese has turned into a steady, decent fantasy play. While he is not one of the biggest names in the league, he has given consistent results over his short career. He is a nice addition to fill out a fantasy pitching staff as a draft progress.

Niese is sneaky decent. The 26-year-old left-hander doesn’t overpower hitters with his 90 mph fastball, but he gets a decent number of strikeouts. Not one of his traits really stands out as seen by his 2012 stats:

Stat: League rank among qualified starters
K% (19.6%): 51st
BB% (6.9%): 52nd
HR/9 (0.97): 64th
FIP (3.80): 45th

In 2012, he came in as the 26th-highest rated pitcher in the league in Zach Sander’s end of season rankings. The main reason for the high jump, compared to his peripheral stats, was his 3.40 ERA after posting a 4.40 ERA in 2011.

Over the last two seasons, he had almost identical stats:

Stat: 2011 season, 2012 season
K%: 20%, 20%
BB%: 6%, 6%
HR/9. 0.8, 1.0

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The lower 2011 home run rate pushed his ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) a little lower than his 2012 values:

Season: FIP, xFIP, SIERA
2011: 3.36, 3.28, 3.42
2012: 3.80, 3.64, 3.71

He was a bit unlucky in 2011 and bit lucky in 2012. Maybe in 2013 all will even out. Considering his past couple seasons pitching, I would expect his 2013 ERA to be around the 3.60 level.

Injuries have been an issue Niese has dealt with in the past. 2012 was the first the season of the last 4 when he he didn’t spend time on the disabled list.

Season: Injury (days lost)
2009: Torn right hamstring (60)
2010: Strained right hamstring (19)
2011: Rib injury – strained right interscostal (36)

A highlight from the list is none of the injuries were because of arm issues. None of his traits point to him being an injury risk (he has a high Zone% and a constant fastball speed).

Not every pitcher on a fantasy team can be an ace. Teams need steady pitchers to fill out a staff after a team has already picked a few pitchers. Jon Niese falls into that category. With these pitchers, an owner may strike gold with the pitcher being a bit lucky and the pitchers are able to have a lower than expected ERA or compile a nice win total. Who knows. Jon Niese isn’t going to win a fantasy league for an owner, but he is not going to lose it for them either.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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The Guillentine
12 years ago

I streamed him for many starts during the season. The amount of times I streamed him, i felt he should have been a must-start every time. Niese has become one of my favorite under the radar pitchers. Great article.

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