Jolt’s Opening Day Hit Predictions

One of my favorite Topps baseball card series is the Gypsy Queen collection. Typically released at the beginning of the season, this series has special inserts, such as the Crystal Gazing Die-Cuts, that serve as the Topps version of a bold prediction. I like to think of myself as a machine learning, gypsy fortune telling, bold predictor. I’ve created a model, one that I’m still partially developing, named Jolt after Joe “Joltin’ Joe” DiMaggio himself. This model looks to predict a hit based on the following:

You can see how important, according to the model, each variable is and you can see that launch angle reins king. I recently wrote about the complexities of predicting who will get a hit based on player matchups given the fact you don’t know what the pitcher will throw or if the batter will even swing. I’ve worked around that complication by simulating pitches and swing tendencies to make predictions. You can read about all that here. I should point out that this is all in an effort to beat the streak and win lots of money. You can get a better understanding of how the game works in my past posts. For now, I’ll present Jolt’s top three picks and break down how the model decided on these predictions.

–

Prediction #1: Kyle Tucker stays through the ball and drills one on the inside corner.

Jolt’s simulation gave the following line:

{‘launch_angle’: 12.0, ‘launch_speed’: 103.4, ‘VAA’: -4.59, ‘park_factors’: 99, ‘prob_hit’: 45%}

Visually, the pitch looks like this:

 

It’s nice to see that Tucker has done this type of thing before. In fact, Tucker got two hits when his launch angle was between 10 and 14 degrees and his exit velocity was greater than 100 mph in 2021. This prediction is expecting him to smoke the ball at over 103 mph, but Tucker’s max exit velocity currently sits at 111, so he’s capable of it. Here’s an example of when he’s done this sort of thing in the past.

You may also notice that the likelihood of this event is only at a 45% chance, so I’ve really lowered my threshold. It’s something I’m working through with my model, but for now, I’m not too worried about picking a great hitter to get a hit on opening day.

–

Prediction #2: Dylan Carlson gets on without hitting it too hard.

Jolt’s simulation gave the following line:

{‘launch_angle’: 20.0, ‘launch_speed’: 80.1, ‘VAA’: -5.04, ‘park_factors’: 96, ‘prob_hit’: 49%}

Visually, the pitch looks like this:

This one concerns me just a bit because Carlson got hits on similar pitches twice in Pittsburg at the end of last year. My model is not trained in that time period so it’s not a case of training data being memorized. It’s also not a product of the park factors being overfitted, because Thursday’s game will be in St. Louis. However, it is a little suspect. I did notice there were a lot of Cardinals with high scores so it’s possible the model just doesn’t like JT Brubaker’s stuff. Either way, Carlson hit .370 in 2021 against righties when pulling the ball, which places him in the top 20 when using a 100 PA threshold.

–

Prediction #3: Ozzie Albies drills one low in the zone.

Jolt’s simulation gave the following line:

{‘launch_angle’: 26.0, ‘launch_speed’: 85.5, ‘VAA’: -6.00, ‘park_factors’: 101, ‘prob_hit’: 42%}

Visually, the pitch looks like this:

Well, he’s done it before and this predicted exit velocity is right on track with Ozzie’s career 88.3 mph average. It is a launch angle somewhat higher than his career 17.4 average, but not outside the realm of possibility. In 2021, I was able to find 20 Albies hits that were located in ‘game day zone 8’ using savant’s search tool. I think it’s a safe bet.

 

It’s fun to simulate and predict the future. Only time will tell. A big goal of mine will be to create a website that connects to Jolt’s model predictions and presents the top three picks each day, but I have a lot of big goals at the moment. Beat the Streak is a fun game, but I’ve been guilty of giving up way too early in the season the past few years. It’s also a very difficult game, which is likely why odds makers are so comfortable offering millions of dollars to the winner. But, you know what? It’s free to play, so why not! This year, like an MLB hitter who walks around with bat in hand telling everyone in the locker room he’s going to beat DiMaggio’s 56 game streak, I’m telling everyone in my apartment, laptop in hand, the same thing.