Jeff Zimmerman’s 2025 BOLD Predictions

It’s time to go out on limb and make a few BOLD predictions. All of the ranks will be determined by using our auction calculator. All ADP mentioned is from 11 NFBC Main Event drafts.

1. Cristopher Sánchez will be a top-3 starting pitcher

Sánchez has some Framber Valdez in him with a great groundball rate (career 57% GB%) and low walks (career 2.3 BB/9). Reports have his fastball velocity up, so maybe some of his Spring Training 13.1 K/9 (20% SwStr%) will carry over the regular season. I hope he gets enough Wins to crack the top three.

2. Lawrence Butler and Mark Vientos will be bottom-200 hitters

Every year, young hitters have great second halves and everyone wants to buy in the next year. In both of these cases, I see a ton of downside.

With Butler, he had a hot July and was mediocre after that. Here are his results with his July numbers removed where he performed like Andrew Benintendi.

I want to see more than one hot month before believing in him. No more going all in with the Zack Gelofs and Oscar Gonzalezs of the world.

With Vientos, I don’t like his underlying skill set. Here are the closest comps to his core attributes of hitting the ball, plate decisions, and running ability.

If anyone wants to hope on a name, it’s Corey Seager. The rest of these guys never made it in the league, are catchers, or are power-only DH’s. It’s not a chance I’ll take with an early pick

3. Spencer Strider will out-earn Jacob deGrom.

At the time I’m writing this, deGrom is going at pick 37 while Strider is going at pick 93. Both have shown the ability to be the best pitcher in the game but I believe in Strider staying healthy once he returns compared to deGrom. And I’ll keep picking on deGrom with my next prediction.

4. Jacob deGrom, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Max Fried will underperform their combined innings projection by 175 IP.

Here are our (Depth Charts) and my comp-based predictions for the group. The predictions came from work I did after publishing The Process this year.

Each pitcher could go over or under their total, but I predict that the group will be way under their projections. I don’t feel great about the Skubal addition but I have to be BOLD, so here we go.

5. Grant Holmes will outperform Clay Holmes.

Grant Holmes (243 ADP) is going 75 picks after Clay Holmes (168 ADP). I’m high on Grant Holmes for the changes he implemented in the second half with a 9.8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.57 xFIP (4.38 ERA, .340 BABIP). What I like the most, is that all three of his pitches generate a ton of swing-and-miss.

Pitch: SwStr%
Four-seamer: 9%
Slider: 24%
Curve: 23%

My issue with Clay is that he is projected 170 IP. In the last 14 years, the most a pitcher has thrown going from only closing to starting was Seth Lugo with 146 IP in 2023. I won’t bet on setting a record and have him closer to 130 IP.

6. Xavier Edwards will have more stolen bases than RBI.

The Slap Dick Prospect was close last season with 43 RBI and 36 SB. I have no faith that the bottom of the Marlins lineup will be on base enough for Edwards to hit them in. The Marlins will be competing to be the worst team in baseball, so there is no reason for Edwards to have the green light and push that stolen base number up.

7. Robert Garcia (417 ADP) will have more of the Rangers Saves than Chris Martin (209 ADP).

Normally, when two pitchers are fighting over the closer’s job, go with the righty (Martin). In this case, I’ll swap the pair, especially considering the cost.

8. Over the final two months, Dalton Rushing will get more starts at catcher than Will Smith.

I think Smith may be ending his effective career while Rushing is just starting his. The 29-year-old Smith hit just .206/.295/.331 with 5 HR in the second half. In AAA last season, Rushing hit .271/.384/.512 with 26 HR. To verify, I’ll compare August, September, and October starts for the pair.

One note on the Dodgers, I want to see how they handle declining veterans with large remaining contracts. Do they keep running them out there like the Yankees try (e.g. DJ LeMahieu) or do they play better but cheaper talent. I think they only thing that could hold back the Dodgers is if they keep playing unproductive vets. Smith is likely the first test case.

9. Zach Dezenzo outperforms Cam Smith.

I’m pretty sure Cam Smith Fan Boys will plan on burning me alive after reading this. What are BOLD predictions without a good death threat.

The pair are tearing up Spring Training with Dezenzo with a 1.005 OPS and Cam Smith at 1.362. I have little faith Christian Walker can stay healthy and Jon Singleton is good. Both are fighting for playing time with others (McCormick, Melton) and each other for the outfield spot. I like the idea of getting both but it’s time to go BOLD.

10. Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 will be Tampa’s top fantasy hitter.

I really wanted to add the caveat: “besides Junior Caminero“, but again I have to go BOLD. Rays rarely play a guy every day, but once Kim is healthy, he will be the everyday shortstop. The Rays have no problems running, so Kim could always have the green light (38 SB in 2023) and the smaller home park could push him to a 30 HR pace.