Jeff Samardzija’s Two Bad Months
The first thing you probably notice when you look at Jeff Samardzija’s player page is his ERA of 4.34 last year. And if you click over to his 2013 splits, you’ll see that ERAs north of 5.00 in each of the last three months of the season were responsible for the high ERA.
But don’t let the Shark’s apparent struggles in the second half scare you too much. In reality, July was the only one of those three bad months in which Samardzija actually pitched poorly. His strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction in July, but they were back within his normal range in August and September. His ERA just stayed bad because his BABIP was over .340 in those months, his strand rate was 66% in August, and his HR/FB rate was 26% in September.
What’s most concerning is that the July blip wasn’t the only significant rough patch that Samardzija has had since becoming a starter. In June of 2012, his strikeout and walk rates also went in the wrong direction, and his ERA ballooned to 10.41 in that month. Just to give you an idea of how out-of-the-ordinary those two months were, here is a chart showing the Shark’s strikeout and walk rates, ERA and xFIP for each of his 12 professional months as a starter.
| Season | Split | K% | BB% | ERA | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Mar/Apr | 23.80% | 7.60% | 4.13 | 3.17 |
| 2012 | May | 25.50% | 7.00% | 2.48 | 3.32 |
| 2012 | Jun | 17.20% | 12.90% | 10.41 | 4.88 |
| 2012 | Jul | 27.70% | 10.00% | 1.91 | 3.25 |
| 2012 | Aug | 27.50% | 4.60% | 3.52 | 2.87 |
| 2012 | Sept/Oct | 27.40% | 3.20% | 1.69 | 3.09 |
| 2013 | Mar/Apr | 29.90% | 8.90% | 3.35 | 2.81 |
| 2013 | May | 24.60% | 7.50% | 2.31 | 3.31 |
| 2013 | Jun | 22.60% | 7.30% | 4.2 | 3.15 |
| 2013 | Jul | 19.00% | 12.40% | 5.28 | 4.77 |
| 2013 | Aug | 20.10% | 7.50% | 5.54 | 3.77 |
| 2013 | Sept/Oct | 24.40% | 8.20% | 5.58 | 3.09 |
I picked Samardzija to write about because I wanted to look into his two bad months and see if I could identify what went wrong. But there’s nothing obvious that I can find.
I started by looking at his pitch mix and found no red flags. It seemed strange that he used a curve about 9% of the time in June 2012 because that is a pitch he had not used before and has hardly used since. But that didn’t contribute to the bad month because his curve had the lowest ISO and slugging allowed of any of his pitches that month. Other than that, nothing in his pitch mix appeared to be the cause.
I also thought he might have been dealing with an injury, but I don’t believe he ever appeared in Jeff Zimmerman’s MASH Report, and he had no issues with velocity in either of the problem months.
Then I thought he might have had a mechanical problem. I took a look at brooksbaseball.net to see if there was any issue with his release point, but that yielded no answer. His release point might have been a hair further out from his body than normal in July 2013, but it was so slight that it couldn’t have been the cause of his struggles. And his release point in June 2012 was consistent with his typical release point, so that’s not the problem. It’s possible he could have a different mechanical issue that the available data can’t clue us in on, but there’s no obvious answer to the blowups in his release point.
Ultimately, the answer is probably that consistency is tough and Samardzija just didn’t have his best stuff for those stretches. As he said in an interview with Eno Sarris in July, “Pitches come and go so much throughout the year. You’ll go two week stints where two or three of them will be on, and the other one you’re wondering what happened to it.”
I was hoping to find some obvious reason for the dips in Samardzija’s performance to determine what the risk was of it happening again. But I realize that the possibility of another blowup month some time in 2014 may not be something that should scare me off. Had he not had the bad luck in the final two months of last season, I probably wouldn’t be as worried about him because his ERA probably would have been under 4.00. If he had two straight seasons with an ERA in the high-threes and stud strikeout numbers, I’d happily sign up for another season of that. But his skills say he should have had that sub-4.00 ERA last year, so that’s what I expect from him going forward.
With his ability to miss bats, Samardzia will always have upside. Unfortunately, he has a bit of an issue with homers. If he could manage to keep the ball in the park, he could potentially get down to a 3.40-ish ERA with a top ten strikeout rate. His upside is something like what A.J. Burnett did last year, which would make him a borderline top 30 fantasy starter. But because of the homer issues that have shown no indication of going away, I’d guess his 2014 roto line looks something like what Jon Lester did last year with more strikeouts and fewer wins. That would make Samardzija a borderline fourth starter in 12-team mixed leagues and a solid fifth starter. With his upside, I’d be comfortable taking him as my fourth starter.
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
Brett, nice piece and research!
You ever think about one main point that won’t ever show up in a pitch tracker, MASH report, or statistical report….and that is simply just playing on a crappy team??? Bad luck, having hits drop, and runs score behind you on a team like the Cubs as opposed to a “decent” mlb defensive team, definitely plays into Sharks numbers. Unfortunately a lot of people don’t read into the game that deep when simply looking at statistics. However there is no stat or sabermetric number/evaluation that can placed on the poor caliber of team that you play for. Meaning, I believe I read where 9 of Sharks 32 starts his team scored 0 runs for him. Thats roughly the worst in all of MLB I believe. I’m sure that takes a toll on a pitcher mentally that knows he has to be “perfect” in order to get a win that day. Not too mention also pitching in a hitter-friendly Wrigley field.
Numbers are numbers I get that, however getting your butt kicked everyday at recess sometimes makes you not as excited to go to school everyday…
Mike, thanks for reading. And commenting, it’s always appreciated.
The problem I have with the “crappy team” reasoning is that the team was crappy all year. I don’t know why it would have an impact on him for a month but not in the other five. And they actually weren’t a bad defensive team. They were third in defensive efficiency which means they turned balls in play into outs at the third highest rate in the league. Moreover, I can’t see how the other guys on his team would have any impact on something completely within the Shark’s control, his strikeout and walk rates.
The Cubs were 3rd in defensive efficiency over the course of the year, but does any data exist that would show this stat for only those occasions when JS was pitching? It could be that, through bad luck, the Cubs stunk it up whenever JS pitched.
I know that it is anecdotal, but I remember watching him pitch in August or September. As I recall, he cruised through the first 5 innings then came out for the 6th and walked the first batter. The next batter singled but his RF played it into a triple (he could have knocked it down and thrown it back into the infield but instead took a dive at it for some reason and the ball ended up rolling to the wall). The next batter struck out, the next batter flew out scoring the runner from 3rd. JS gets pulled. So, instead of having two on and two outs with no runs scored (and only one out away from a QS), he left with none on and two outs and two runs scored (and no QS). Again, I know that it is anecdotal, but maybe there is enough variability in defensive efficiency that it could happen that a team is ‘terrible’ for one guy and ‘lights out’ for others through the vagaries of luck.
I think your assessment of JS’s value is spot on though. I am in a 12-team H2H 5×5 daily redraft league and I was able to pick up JS off of the waiver wire.
A couple of things. The Cubs can’t hit a lick and their bullpen was terrible, but they actually can field and do a pretty good job. Also their park isn’t the homer haven it used to be. This is more of a carry over of a reputation built from the 70s and 80s with all those big multipurpose stadiums. Wrigley is fairly neutral, and the wind blows in a lot too. Now I suppose sample could be an issue where maybe Samardzija had a disproportionate number of starts where the wind was howling out of Wrigley. I would suppose the ERA would have been inflated by the garbage bullpen the Cubs trucked out last year. I have no doubt a lot of inherited runners ended up scoring.
Been a big fan of Shark the past few years but this homeritis could be the cause to most of his problems along with a bad walk rate.
Though I was persuaded to part with him early on last year after finding someone with a glut of 1B. Traded Henderson and Shark for Crush Davis, didn’t work out too bad did it? 🙂
July 2013 might just be from the trade rumors and uncertainty. You never know. Maybe he was rattled. He walked 5 guys in a game just 3 times in 2013 and 2 where in July with the 3rd on August 3rd, right after the deadline. That month of July he had 1 awful game giving up 9 in less than 5 innings (only 2 walks, but 4 HR’s), but 2 starts in the month were dominant.
June 2012 was an entirely uneffective month! No solid starts – His best game was a 2 run 5 inning game where he gave up 7 hits and 5 walks! It definitely points to something like tiping his pitches or working on another pitch or dealing with an injury. It was a solid stretch of poor outings. Just because the curveball wasn’t getting crushed, doesn’t mean it was being effective or not being tipped. Maybe it was effecting his delivery motion causing other pitches to be more easy to recognize.
I think the better news is that the July 2013 stint was smaller, 2-3 bad games in the month instead of all 5, and seems more isolated and more likely to be explained by small mental lapses, which should get better with experience. Also, including games in Colorado and Arizona, all games in the month were played in hitters parks, making it more likely he was pitching extra careful.
In the only year in which he threw 200 innings, he showed signs of wear and tear. He’s also 29 years old and only has two more years of team control but he’ll be getting expensive. His ERA in the only two years he was a starter were 3.81 and 4.34, which is fine but hardly ace-worthy. I don’t understand why teams would give the Cubs more than a couple of B prospects at this point.
I agree. Samardzija is a nice middle of the rotation starter but I have no idea why the Cubs are asking for so much for him. If rumors are true they asked for either Justin Upton or Jason Heyward from the Braves. There is zero chance they get a return package anything remotely close to that. IF the Cubs seriously want to trade him they will only get a couple of B prospects.
I think this is sort of a PR stunt by the Cubs. They know they are going into yet another rebuilding year and aren’t going to buy any big-name free agents so they are putting this out there to give their fans something to talk about. I suppose they could also have been serious about some of these trade offers last year at the trade deadline when Samardzija’s numbers were better and they could have found a desperate contender that might have given them a lot more. They may also know something about him and be trying to do anything they can to dump him before anyone else finds out.
If you think about it, the Cubs would be unwise to trade Samardzija right now anyway….unless there’s something wrong with him. Sure they have another rebuilding year ahead and he’s a potential tradable asset, but have you looked at their pitching lately? They have one of the worst staffs in the league and they don’t have anything special coming up through the minors either (Maybe CJ Edwards. That’s pretty much it). If they are going to be any good at all in 2015 they are going to need Samardzija and three more guys just like him, even at the $10M or so that he’ll be earning by then. After 2015, if he’s still any good, he’ll be worth giving a qualifying offer unless that price skyrockets so again he’ll have value even if the Cubs don’t want to keep him. So… why would they trade a fairly cheap mid-rotation starter right now, unless there’s something wrong?
Stan, no offense my friend but I think you’ve been reading too many message boards haha.
“Wear and tear”??? Are we missing something?
PR stunt?
Dump him before everyone else finds out about it?
I guess this is the joy of the blog-o-sphere…
I’ve observed Jeff S being called “Shark” as opposed to “The Shark” on most Cubs blogs. As in “Man, Shark threw a gem today”.
It’s definitely Shark. This is from his Notre Dame days. Never The Shark.
For whatever that is worth. I’m certainly not going to give many shits about a nickname.
“but it was so slight that it couldn’t have been the cause of his struggles.”
I think this is faulty logic. I agree with your conclusion, but I think the reason is that we can’t be certain that there actually was a slightly different release point. And if you replaced “couldn’t” with “may not,” then it also would have been a correct statement. But couldn’t is too strong of a word. A very slight change in mechanics could hypothetically greatly influence command, control, and movement. And it could also signal an injury – either minor or serious. Perhaps his calf was a little sore or his hip flexor a little balky. Those are injuries that can easily be pitched through that could cause the one month results we’ve witnessed.
just my 2 cents.
Keeper league, $260 budget, unlimited keepers with +$7 inflation. 12 teams, 5×5 standard, full deep rosters with 3 minor league aux and 5 bench — in short, it’s a deep 12 team league. I’d say half the league is very competitive minded. The other half, I do not think are as advanced. I have Samardzjia to keep at $15 (I drafted him for $1 in 2012, kept him last year). Heading into the ASB, he was a sure fire keeper at the price. Now, I see his value as marginal (i.e., minimal profit). Think the downside outweighs the talent-profit-upside calculus? I doubt that if I throw him back that I’ll get him back for less than $13, and I value certainty of the roster in terms of draft planning, provided the picked player is quality enough. In short, I wonder what sort of league you envision Shark as a “fourth” starter in? I see him as ranging between a soft #2 (upside) and a #4-5 (downside) in my kind of league.
Which is to say, convoluted, that I see Shark’s value as low-mid 20’s, not 30’s.
To be worth $15, Samardzija will have to finish the year as a top 20 pitcher. That’s based on our end of year valuations which had Strasburg as being worth almost $15 this year and being the 18th most valuable starter.
But let’s say you don’t mind paying the extra $2 if you think Samardzija can just be the 24th best pitcher, which would make him a soft #2 in a 12 team league like yours. The 24th best pitcher last year was Homer Bailey. He had 11 wins and 199 strikeouts. The wins are exactly what I would project for Shark this year, and the strikeouts are close but mightbe a little higher for Shark. But Bailey had a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. If everything goes right for Samardzija, meaning he keeps the ball in the park, he could get down to that ERA. But I see no way he gets down to that WHIP with his high walk rate.
Unless he gets super lucky with wins , gets the ERA down to 3.50 and basically leads the league in strikeouts, I don’t see how he’s a top 25 starter. So at that price I’d pass on him.