Jason Heyward is Coming Around
If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly behind him in the lineup, Heyward was an extremely attractive target on draft day and if you left the draft with him as your top outfielder you probably felt pretty happy about it.
Obviously, the season has not started out quite as you or Heyward had planned. He struggled out of the gate and then had his appendix removed and missed almost a month of action. The fact of the matter is that you are not going to have the end of season results you expected when you drafted Heyward. Mark it down as a loss and move forward. The next step is to decide what you want to do with him. You have waited around for him for a pretty long time, which means you expect him to improve. So, do you put him on the market and risk trading him low or do you ride it out and hope he gets back to a 20-20 type pace for the rest of the year?
My suggestion is to hold onto him. At this point, you have gone through the roughest patch you are likely going to go through with Heyward and he is starting to get on base a decent amount. While he has not hit for the power we would like to see since returning from the DL, he does have a .367 OBP in his past 21 games after returning from his surgery. That comes with a .260 batting average, which is about what we should expect for Heyward going forward. As mentioned, the power has not been there to the degree we would like to see – he is slugging just .351 over that same period which is pretty putrid.
I have confidence in that power coming back, and you should have that same level of confidence as well. His HR/FB rate is just 7.3%, which is even lower than the 13.9% mark he posted in his injury-riddled 2011 campaign. He is also hitting the ball in the air more than he ever has, as his ground ball rate is a career low 40.2%. The combination of keeping the ball off the ground and having a low HR/FB rate to date makes me believe that he is going to start running into a burst of home runs sooner rather than later.
The next thing to look at are the stolen bases. We know he is going to score runs batting second in the Braves lineup and we know he probably won’t drive many in either in that same spot, but we should see more steals than we have seen so far. He has always been a great base runner but he has never necessarily been a great base stealer. Even last year when he stole 21 bags he got caught eight times. With Justin Upton batting behind him, it seems as though Fredi Gonzalez is less willing to have him run into an out than he was in season’s past. I still expect Heyward to steal about eight or nine more bases over the course of the year – ZiPS and Steamer both agree – but hoping for 15 or so more thefts may be asking for a bit too much.
What we should expect going forward with Heyward is about a .260-.270 batting average, a ton of runs, few RBI, and a good deal of home runs with some steals sprinkled on top. That is not top-3 round worthy but the draft is long behind us now. Hold onto him and if you do not have him, try and grab him now as it looks like he is starting to turn things back around.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Re the Article Title: No, he’s not. He looks lost. He needs to work on his batting stance. He doesn’t look as goofy as super wide leg Ike Davis, but he looks unstable bopping up and down like he’s on a pogo stick. Probably messing with his eye level or something.
Screw the numbers! His batting stance doesn’t conform to my standards, so he sucks. His last 7 games may be 12/29 with 3BB/4K and 5R, but he looks lost because the batting stance he’s always had looks bad.
Screw watching the games! He’s had a good 29 at bat sample so original poster’s position is stupid!
Come on man — don’t be a snob. I think Heyward is going to be fine too but I am really starting to hate fangraphs comments.
I’m responding “Re: the Article Title” (inexplicably capitalized), because I didn’t read anything beyond that.
I traded him for Dominic Brown last Monday in a keeper league. Good idea?
I’ll take the Heyward side.
I’d opt for the pogostickless one.
Keeper league? Wow that’s a terrible idea.
I prefer Heyward but I don’t think it’s horrible. Brown will probably out-homer him every year, but Heyward will have a superior overall line. In an OBP league it’d be nuts.
It is an OBP league. Heyward isn’t a strong OBP-guy himself AND Brown is only 25-years old. Not to mention Brown’s season is looking to easily surpass Heyward’s best. Oh, and they were both equally hyped prospects with a similar pedigree.
Heyward has been a decent OBP guy, especially relative to his AVG. That being said, I don’t think it’ll be a landslide victory for either side. They will both provide good numbers in some categories, the rest of the team will just have to be composed accordingly.
Wow Brown’s only 25? Old man Heyward is over the hill now at 23.
Brown wasn’t ever nearly the prospect Heyward was
I’ll take Heyward in keepers.
You will be regretting that trade by the end of this season. Great trade for the Brown owner.
Are you insane? Heyward will outproduce Brown every year.
Based on what? Dominic Brown is looking to easily surpass Heyward’s best season (last year) this year.
Sell low. Buy high. Yeah, what a great idea. Never try to invest in stocks.
wilt/genius,
My point is that the age difference between Heyward and Brown is negligable, NOT that Brown is younger. Glad you have an I.Q. of 4.
Perhaps you should rewrite your previous comments. It seems that you lead yourself to being misunderstood and then as a defense mechanism critic the reader who simply interprets what is written by you as opposed to guessing what you meant.
Back to main topic… Comparing players value using stats alone, is exactly the reason that most of us are now surprised by how Brown is performing. I’ve watched J.Hey since day one in the majors. I believe J-Hey has the tools to be a top 5 outfielder just by pure talent. However, i don’t believe he has the mental capacity to reach that high up the latter, not today. If there is one thing he can do today is hit….. hit HARD. He’s starting to hit the ball up the middle and opposite field with authority. The day he stops crouching as much at the plate and postures his batting stance upright, just a bit, is the day his number of balls launched as souvenirs into the outfield stands will begin to increase.
I disagree with the comments about Heyward’s “pogostick” bounce at the plate. Yes, he has a little bounce, but to me it does not look like he’s “lost” at all. He actually looks much better than before the DL: he is making much better contact, hitting line drives, with fewer swings and misses, and he is also being patient and walking and not swinging at much outside the strike zone. To show that kind of plate discipline when you know he must be itchin’ to crank some long balls is a great sign of growing maturity. Yeah, he’s only 23 too.
Traded Matt Joyce for him. Pwnd
I think Heyward could benefit from quieting his motions while he waits for the pitch. He’s got too many things moving around, his fingers, he’s moving up and down. Not sure why you’d want to be moving up or down as you’re trying to track a pitch. He’s hitting all these weak dribblers to 1st and 2nd. Dude looks lost.
I have no idea why I’m bothering to respond…nevertheless.
JHey is currently posting career bests in LD% (21.5 vs. 17.5 career) and his GB% is down (40 vs. 49.6). His BB% has returned to career norms (2012 was his low point), his K% is a full 6% points lower than last year! AND he’s in the middle of a hot streak (as noted by the article and my first comment).
To call JHey “lost” is nonsense. I’m not sure what games you’ve been watching, but he has been hitting line drives all over the park the last week+.
2 dingers today. Notice how he quieted things down during those 2 at bats?
I think you’re seeing what you want to see. You discounted the prediction of a Heyward turnaround and now you are using the turnaround as validation for your point.
In fact, just watched the highlight of his homer in the 8th, I don’t think any part of his body was still for a quarter second waiting for that pitch.
Nope. But I did notice that you are a fool, and your swing analysis worthless.
I’m just bitter because I dropped him 2 weeks ago.
Just traded Patrick Corbin for him in a redraft league. I’m probably feeling more proud of it than I should.
Yea, not so much.