Jake Lamb: A Viable Option in the Desert

When the Arizona Diamondbacks lost A.J. Pollock for what is very likely going to be the year, panic obviously ensued. Not only did they lose one of the top players in the National League, but they did so without a clear source of secondary offense beyond Paul Goldschmidt. Players like Nick Ahmed and Jean Segura have come through in ways that were not at all expected, but the guy that I’ve been following since before the season started is Jake Lamb. Perhaps more than anyone else, Lamb has emerged as that guy behind Goldschmidt, and is suddenly becoming a viable fantasy option at the hot corner.

In my preseason draft experience, Jake Lamb was a guy who was stowed away on rosters in deeper leagues, or left hanging around in waiver wire limbo altogether until a team was in dire need of a plug-and-play option at third base. Overall, he was largely a guy left off of rosters because of the obvious uncertainty as to what he actually could bring to the table. But as these first couple weeks of the season have worn on, Lamb has provided consistency at the plate to the point where he’s leapt up to no. 2 in the Arizona batting order. This type of production isn’t going to be a surprise for too much longer.

Not that it should have been to begin with. Lamb dealt with the lingering effects of a foot injury last year, which helped to sap some of his power. But he still made quality contact on a regular basis, as illustrated by his exit velocity spray chart:

Lamb didn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify last year, but among those with at least 350 plate appearances, Lamb had the fifth highest hard hit percentage, at 36.3%. He maintained the fourth lowest swing percentage, at 42.6%. That combination of quality contact and quality approach allowed him to maintain a .331 on-base percentage, while sporting a .344 BABIP, a figure which would appear sustainable given his penchant for making hard contact.

The type of contact that Lamb has made over the course of the last year certainly lends itself well to being a reliable fantasy option. His 22.7% linedrive percentage was 10th among third basemen, and his GB%, at 44.9%, ranked 11th. Both of those numbers would indicate Lamb continuing to be a reliable player in terms of batting average and on-base percentage. An ISO of just .123 in 2015, though, does tend to cause people to shy away. There wasn’t a lot of legitimate power going on, but we go back to the lingering issues with his foot as a source of that lack of power.

Obviously prospective fantasy owners like the power, and we could certainly see an influx of that throughout 2016. Lamb made it a point to work on his swing over the course of the winter, adjusting his hands from way up in his stance, often creating a downward trajectory, to more of a level swing that will allow for more consistent contact all over the strike zone. As such, we could very well be seeing more power from Lamb as the season wears on, which should allow Lamb to generate the type of lift necessary to generate a steady increase in the ISO department.

And it’s exactly what we’ve seen happen early on in the season. Brooks is a fan of Lamb, based off of exit velocity alone (sample size be damned):

His average exit velocity across the board features figures of 91.65 off of fastballs, 91.00 against breaking, and 98.67 against offspeed. Through his first 60 plate appearances of 2016, Lamb has a pair of home runs to his credit and five doubles. Each of those figures is already a third of the way to his total from last year and is featured in his .250 ISO to start off the year. While it’s obviously extremely early at this point, it’s certainly encouraging and does help to illustrate the changes that Lamb has made at the plate. More than anything, though, these types of numbers out of Lamb do help to drive home the case for him as an emerging viable fantasy option at third base.

And we can make that assessment thanks to things like exit velocity and what has become a visibly impressive approach. At 38.8%, Lamb has the eighth highest Hard% among third sackers. His Swing% ranks 20th among that group, and his 0-Swing% on pitches out of the strike zone ranks 21st, as he’s seeing 3.68 pitches per plate appearance. When you look at how that has the potential to translate to the fantasy side of things, one absolutely has to love what they see.

He’s slashing .288/.367/.538/.905. He does have a pair of home runs and has knocked in 10 to start the year. He continues to conquer the BABIP monster thanks to that ability to make quality contact, with a figure of .351. That should allow those batting average and on-base numbers to remain consistently solid. The dropped hands in his swing should continue to allow him to generate legitimate power on the stat sheet. And with Chip Hale moving him up to the two spot in the batting order, Lamb is going to see more opportunities to showcase his skill set at the plate.

And it’s a skill set that prospective fantasy owners should certainly be taking interest in. Because Lamb isn’t going anywhere. In fact, he’ll likely get better as the season wears on, thanks to that high contact rate and increasing power. With that in mind, it’ll be interesting to see just how far Jake Lamb can advance his game before the season comes to a close. Considering the early trends, though, he’s definitely someone work considering even at this point.