A few weeks ago, my wife had reached her breaking point. She had spent years living in not so silent frustration and had finally had enough. So one night, after we had put our daughter to bed, she sat me down and we had the talk I had been dreading for as long as I could remember.
She stared into my eyes with what only could be described as a look of desperation and said, “You play in too many fantasy baseball leagues and if you don’t cut back next season, I will cut you.” I have never been so scared in my entire life.
This brings me to my yearly “Full Disclosure” article. It is an(other) opportunity to hide any morsel of humility I might have and write selfishly about my teams. If you are unfamiliar with the premise, it is my own version of Paul Sporer’s Player Portfolio. You can also read my 2015 version of Full Disclosure if you are interested. There are a number of names that appear on both lists. I play in seventeen fantasy baseball leagues. Here is the breakdown of all the formats:
|Base-Ket-Foot Ball League||ESPN||3-Sport Mixed Roto 5 x 5 Redraft||14 Teams||24|
|Screwball||CBS||AL Only Roto 4 x 4 Keeper||10 Teams||24|
|AAniano Fantasy League||ESPN||AL Only Roto 5 x 5 Redraft||12 Teams||24|
|ToP AL Only||ESPN||AL Only Roto 5 x 5 Redraft||12 Teams||27|
|MLfB||Fantrax||Mixed H2H Categories 10 x 10 Keeper||30 Teams||90|
|Friends of DMF||Yahoo||Mixed H2H Categories 5 x 5 Keeper||20 Teams||20|
|FWFB vs ITL||Yahoo||Mixed H2H Categories 5 x 5 Redraft||14 Teams||28|
|FWFB Listener League||Yahoo||Mixed H2H Categories 5 x 5 Redraft||14 Teams||28|
|League of Champions||CBS||Mixed Roto 5 x 5 Dynasty||16 Teams||45|
|Friends with Fantasy Benefits Dynasty League||ESPN||Mixed Roto 5 x 5 Dynasty||20 Teams||35|
|TOP Dynasty League||ESPN||Mixed Roto 5 x 5 Dynasty||20 Teams||40|
|ToP Auction Redraft||ESPN||Mixed Roto 5 x 5 Dynasty||12 Teams||27|
|Bay Area Fantasy Roto #BARF||Yahoo||Mixed Roto Redraft||12 Teams||28|
|The Fake Baseball Friends and Family League||Yahoo||Mixed Roto Redraft||12 Teams||28|
|Triple-A Industry League||Yahoo||Mixed Roto Redraft||15 Teams||27|
|AskROTObaseball NL-Only Auction||ESPN||NL Only Roto 5 x 5 Redraft||12 Teams||29|
|ToP NL Only||ESPN||NL Only Roto 5 x 5 Redraft||12 Teams||27|
Here is the breakdown of all the players that I had at least two shares of on all of my teams, in order of the most to least shares:
Chris Carter was a guy that I had been buying in on for a number of years before his breakout. There were never questions about his power, just whether he would be able to make enough contact to be a full time player. In 2015, we all paid too much for him. However, the price this season was extremely deflated. I was willing to take the risk in just about every league that I didn’t get one of the elite options at first base. The move to Milwaukee made me believe that he had a better defined role than he did in Houston as they have very little to replace him if he struggles.
It was not surprising that Garrett Richards ended up on seven of my teams. He was my Bold Prediction for AL Cy Young. He has been top two in fastball velocity the last two seasons and has the secondary pitches to go with it. The reemergence of his changeup only helps his repertoire. Had it not been for the devastating leg injury that derailed his breakout season in 2014, we may have already been talking about him as a fantasy ace.
Starlin Castro is another guy that I was high on in 2015. While he did not return value for what I paid for him last season, he did hit six home runs with a .295/.319/.464 in the second half. The move to the Yankees returns him to being a full time player. So far, so good, as he has started out hot, hitting two home runs and stealing two bases with a .319/.360/.532.
I am feeling particularly good about having so many shares of Socrates Brito this week. Even though he has struggled out of the gate, I believe he should be back up soon. My bet on Brito was as much about his skills as it was a bet against Yasmany Tomas. The Pollock injury only further helps Brito’s prognosis for this season because I have little faith in their other options in centerfield. Finally, if you are the type of person that believes in the Hunter Pence effect on a team’s clubhouse, supposedly he is a fantastic and energetic presence on the team.
Kepler ended up on multiple teams for me because of the amount of keeper and dynasty leagues I am in. I did stash him in two of my AL Only redraft leagues as a reserve. While his early call up was an unexpected surprise at first, the bizarre handling of him since he has arrived has been aggravating, to put it nicely. I do believe he will carve out a larger role for himself in due time. Patience is a virtue.
I started buying on Luis Severino early in 2015, so the most of my shares are from keeper or dynasty leagues. While the gaudy numbers we saw from him at the end of 2015 are unlikely sustainable, he is an extremely talented young pitcher with a powerful offense behind him.
When everyone was buying in on Carter Capps in early drafts, I was buying as many shares of A.J. Ramos that I could. He has been an elite reliever the previous two seasons and I did not buy that Capps could stay healthy even if he initially was put into the closer role early on.
There were a lot of warning signs that scared away people when Corey Dickerson was traded from Colorado to Tampa Bay. There were fears of injury, being platooned, and the Coors effect. I didn’t buy into many of those concerns as I stated in my first article I wrote for Rotographs. As his value began to drop, I grabbed shares. I didn’t get as many shares as I had hoped for, but got enough to satisfy my appetite.
Before his trade to Oakland, Khris Davis was one of everyone’s favorite “sleepers”. After the trade to Oakland, no one wanted anything to do with him. He hit 27 home runs last season in less than 400 at bats. He was also sixteenth in average home run distance in all of Major League Baseball last season. His power will play anywhere. The average will always be a concern, but he was a cheap source of power that everyone was hiding from.
The more I listened to Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk about Marcus Semien on Sleeper and the Bust, the more I bought in on his value. Here was a shortstop that could potentially go 20/15 that was being drafted outside the top 200. Even if he struggled on defense or with his contact, I believed he would be able to keep enough of a role in a poor Oakland lineup to return a profit on my investments.
Unlike Kepler, virtually all of my shares of Nomar Mazara were in redraft leagues. I bought a number of them prior to Ian Desmond signing with Texas. Before that signing, I expected Mazara to be up by June or July and make a major impact for the second half. The Choo injury and subsequent promotion to the Show has been a pleasant surprise. He is raking so far, but it is only eight games. It is possible that he forces the Rangers hand and he stays up, but it is probably unlikely since they surely will want to protect his service time.
Early injuries in this grouping have been a little brutal. Anthony DeSclafani and Kevin Gausman both started the season on the DL, but played into the latter’s draft price being a bit deflated. As Matthew Berry would put it, Gausman has become my “fantasy kryptonite”. I just can’t quit him. Andrew Heaney was a guy I have been pushing for the last two seasons, so his injury is pretty painful. Shin-Soo Choo has opened the door for Mazara, so I can’t enjoy those rewards and complain too much about how I got them.
Coming into last season, I proclaimed that I loved George Springer so much that I would drink his bathwater. This year I was a bit more reluctant early on in drafts because I began to worry his ADP reflected having to pay for his ceiling rather than leaving much room for profit. I did get enough shares to quench my thirst, in spite of the fact I felt many people in drafts were willing to pay too high of a price for him. I drafted him mostly in leagues that were OBP as it seemed people did not properly account for the boost he got in those leagues. If he can stay healthy, he will be a stud.
Kyle Gibson, Jimmy Nelson, and Adam Conley are all guys I felt could take a nice step forward this season that I didn’t have to pay much of anything for. I believe Gibson could strikeout more guys this season, and Target Field is a nice place to pitch, in spite of the fact that he isn’t in a fantastic division. Nelson was a guy I bought in on last season and he took some sneaky strides forward in 2015. Oddly, he was better at home than on the road and his glaring weakness was against lefties. He is still young enough to get better and I have faith he can, but even if he doesn’t the draft price was worth the gamble. Conley was an end game pitcher for me. He has an underrated arsenal and pitches in one of the better parks and weakest divisions in baseball. There are going to be blow up starts here and there, but he is already showing an uptick in strikeouts early on, which is nice to see from a lottery ticket.
Sam Dyson was a common last round pick that I grabbed when I missed out on closer runs and felt guys like Glen Perkins or Shawn Tolleson were not worth their draft slots. I think he will get the closer job at some point and has already looked better than the rest of the Texas bullpen.
And here are the rest of the guys I have multiple shares of:
Tell me what you think. Where did I go wrong? Who did I not get that I have been touting?
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.