Jacoby Ellsbury In The Bronx

In his first season in New York, Jacoby Ellsbury didn’t crack under the pressure of a $153 million contract, hitting in Yankee Stadium didn’t kill his swing and despite something of an injury label, he managed to appear in 149 games, putting together what can only be described as another fine season for those who drafted him as a top outfielder.

At the same time, he struck out more frequently than he had before at the big league level, his batting average finished 20 points below his career mark and he posted his lowest OBP over the course of a full season, finishing 13th among outfielders in Zach Sanders’ rankings despite being tabbed as a top-five option before the year.

Granted, there’s nothing wrong with placing among the likes of Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig. But Ellsbury is approaching his age-31 season and entering a period of typical decline — especially for players who derive as much value from their speed as Ellsbury does — and given that he’ll almost certainly cost an early-round pick, owners next spring will be betting on whether he can still be counted on to perform as a top-flight outfielder.

When Ellsbury signed with the Yankees, eager fantasy owners understandably hoped he’d be able to translate the 32 home runs and 105 RBIs of his MVP-caliber 2011 campaign to the Bronx Bandbox. Ultimately, he didn’t come close to those kinds of numbers, though he did hammer 16 bombs and 70 RBIs, easily the second-best totals of his career. Only Ellsbury knows for sure if he was tempted to swing for Yankee Stadium’s cozy right-field porch, though his statline shows he finished with the lowest GB/FB ratio of his career and his 33.5 FB% was his highest since 2011.

A quick note about 2011: part of what made Ellsbury’s power blast so startling was that it was unprecedented for him; he had, after all, belted just 20 career home runs in his entire career entering the season. But the sabermetrically-minded were quick to decode an explanation: a bloated 16.7% HR/FB rate that was head and shoulders above his career norm. When it came back down to earth, so did the home runs and, it seemed safe to presume at the time, so did Ellsbury’s dinger capability.

As it happens, Ellsbury’s unremarkable average batted ball distance of 276.7 feet this year was right on par with his 2011 season, but he didn’t hit fly balls quite as frequently and didn’t benefit from a huge spike in his HR/FB rate. Playing in a hitter’s paradise didn’t artificially inflate his home run total, either, as he ended up hitting more home runs on the road (nine) than he did at home (seven).

He also saw fastballs less frequently, which may have been a result of him making two-thirds of his plate appearances in the No. 3 slot, the most time he’d ever spent away from his typical leadoff role. In a better lineup, perhaps, that wouldn’t have mattered as much, but the Yankees’ order, which surrounded Ellsbury with aging, hobbled players such as Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann, combined to score the third-fewest runs in the American League. Suddenly responsible for carrying much of a sluggish offense, Ellsbury swung more frequently at pitches outside the strike zone than he ever had before and posted his highest Swing% since his rookie year.

Meanwhile, the 39 bases Ellsbury swiped was tied with 2011 for the lowest he’s had in a full season, and the 44 attempts he made were by far his fewest over an entire campaign. That’s disappointing coming off a 52-steal season, and perhaps a shift back to the leadoff spot or hitting directly behind Brett Gardner in the No. 2 hole next year would result in more attempts, but again, Ellsbury is reaching a point in his career where it’s not all that surprising for him to lose a step on the basepaths.

Finally, any discussion of Ellsbury needs to include a mention of his injury risk, though that’s now two straight seasons of more than 630 plate appearances. But it should be noted that Ellsbury’s season ended prematurely with a hamstring strain, and he missed half of 2012 (shoulder) and essentially all of 2010 (ribs) with injuries, albeit in freak occurrences. Then again, we’re talking about a guy who plays hard, and even if Ellsbury deserves the benefit of the doubt in being able to stay onto the field, prudent owners shouldn’t hesitate to compare Ellsbury to other, more durable players come draft day.

Ellsbury likely still has some solid seasons ahead of him, he plays in a good hitter’s park and a strong LD% suggests that there’s no cause for alarm over the disappointing .271 average. But the combination of age and lack of a strong supporting cast in the Yankees’ lineup took a noticeable toll on the center fielder in 2014, and owners would probably be better off expecting Ellsbury to perform as a strong No. 2 outfielder next year as opposed to the guy some pegged back in March to finish alongside fantasy’s best outfielders.





Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries.

5 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
jose
9 years ago

Jacoby isnt injury prone unless you believe avoiding infielders is a skill.

It kinda is but thats not the point.