Jac, & Roman, & Prospects, Oh My — Triple-A wRC+ Leaders

It’s prospect time! The Royals organization heard their fans and Jac Caglianone fantasy owners clamoring for his call-up, and finally, they acted. We could see more top minor league performers and high-end prospects getting the call in the coming weeks as well. So let’s review the wRC+ leaders that currently play at Triple-A, with their mark aggregated between all minor league stops this year. Is a callup imminent? If so, how might we expect them to perform? Let’s try to answer those questions.

C.J. Kayfus leads all upper minor leaguers in wRC+. At age 23, that makes him a real prospect, though he only ranks ninth within the Guardians organization. Since first base and DH are blocked in Cleveland, he has played both left field and right field, which could lead to a recall if Nolan Jones fails to turn things around soon. From a performance perspective, I’m actually not particularly excited. Most of his results are driven by a .442 BABIP, which isn’t going to be sustained in the Majors. Though, he has posted a crazy 32.3% LD%, so not all of that BABIP is luck. Still, he’s not going to hit liners at such a rate in the Majors. No one does over a full season. His home run power has been mediocre with just a 12.2% HR/FB rate, though it’s increased to 16% at Triple-A, backed by above average HardHit% and maxEV marks. He has always consistently posted ISO marks over .200 as he has hit a lot of triples, which is a surprise given the dearth of steals and only a 45/45 speed grade. On the whole, I’d speculate somewhere else.

Carlos Mendoza was included in the A Whole Mess of Depth Guys section of the Tigers top prospect article. He has shown fantastic discipline during his long minor league career, walking at a double digit clip and more often than he has struck out nearly everywhere he’s played. That sounds like a potential valuable OBP format contributor. However, he hits a ton of grounders and a low rate of fly balls, capping his power. Speaking of which, he has rarely shown any of it until this season, as his HR/FB rate and ISO have surged. His Statcast metrics at Triple-A are now up to around league average, but I don’t know where they were previously since we only have Triple-A data. With the low FB%, he’s not going to much of a home run contributor, even if the power surge this season proves real. He does steal bases, swiping as many as 33 last year. So the upside is a decent OBP guy with perhaps 20 steals over a full season, but not much else. It’s doubtful he ends up with a full-time job anyway, but could prove to be a useful utility guy for the Tigers.

Yohendrick Pinango’s skill set isn’t that different from Mendoza’s. He has typically walked at a double digit clip since last year, while making good contact, and has just this year enjoyed a power surge. However, he’s recorded just two PAs at Triple-A so far, so he’ll likely need to prove himself there before any possibility of a promotion. He also doesn’t steal bases, so he looks like another name that can be ignored.

A .404 BABIP has fueled Otto Kemp’s big season, but he has also enjoyed a power spike. His HardHit% has surged, while his maxEV has increased by five miles per hour, which is significant. He also steals bases, making him a potentially intriguing fantasy prospect. The interesting thing here is that a lot of his high OBP and resulting wRC+ is driven by hit by pitches. He actually ranks third in the entirety of the minor leagues in the metric and ranked fifth last year. Clearly it’s a skill! Though I don’t think I’d want to get hit by a pitch that often. He has already player first, second, and third bases, along with left field, in the minors this year. Still, given the Phillies incumbents, it’ll likely take an injury for him to see significant playing time.

Carson McCusker actually enjoyed a quick cup of coffee with the Twins recently but was optioned back down to Triple-A after recording six plate appearances. At 27 years old, he isn’t exactly a top prospect, but his power outburst made the Twins notice. He posted a 32.3% HR/FB rate and .291 ISO at Triple-A this year and those were backed by elite Statcast metrics. He has always shown power in the minors, but perhaps he is now peaking. Some of his performance was inflated by a .447 BABIP, but he has always posted high BABIP marks thanks to a high LD%. The strikeouts are a bit of a concern though, but not crazy given the power and high BABIP potential. I’m not sure if he’ll get another chance, but if he does find himself playing regularly, you might as well speculate in a deep league if you need power.

Anthony Seigler has been a walk machine throughout hsi entire career and he has paired it with single digit SwStk% marks and strikeout rates below 20% since 2022. However, he hasn’t shown much better until this year, when his HR/FB rate has notched a career high and his ISO has jumped above .200 for the first time. He even steals bases, swiping 29 last year and 15 already this season. His Steamer projection is kind of funny with a .198 batting average, but a .307 OBP. He has mostly posted sub-.300 BABIP marks, until this year, so Steamer figured he’ll struggle mightily to hit for average. The walk rate could help offset the lack of hits, though. This is a super interesting skill set that I’d love to see given a chance. He’d be an OBP format only consideration though.

It’s Jac Caglianone time! The 25th overall prospect heading into the season has clearly played himself into one of the top hitting prospects in the game. There are two flaws I see right now — his FB% and IFFB%. First, he posted just a 28.2% FB% at Double-A, where he spent most of his time this season. Though he still managed nine homers for a splendid 31 homer pace over 600 PAs, we can’t expect him to post a 27.3% HR/FB rate in the Majors, at least just yet. So the FB% could cap his short-term home run upside. However, he did jack that rate up to 42.5% at Triple-A, but that came in a much smaller sample. Since he was also a low FB% guy at High-A last year, I’m going to assume he’ll be closer to a 30% FB% than 40%. The other issue is a high IFFB%, which could curb his BABIP and hamper his ability to be a positive batting average contributor.

Finally are two team related issues. First, his new home park ranks as the worst for left-handed home runs in all of baseball using three-season park factors. That’s troublesome. Next, the Royals rank 27th in team wRC+, so he’s joining a pretty bad offense, which will hamper his counting stats and reduce his potential PA total. All this is to say that as good as he’s been in the minors this year, don’t expect he’s going to be a league winner immediately.

Jonathon Long is yet another whose wRC+ is propped up by a ridiculous BABIP. This time it’s at .431, which is also again somewhat validated by a strong LD%. His power has been above average, but nothing to get too excited about, and all those line drives are reducing his FB%. There is clearly no room for him in the Cubs lineup now and with no steals potential, isn’t someone to wait for.

Ryan Ward is another name on the older side, but he has consistently posted strong power numbers in the minors. This year, he’s also posting a career best walk rate and BABIP. He’s gone line drive crazy to increase the BABIP, while he has paired the increased walk rate with the lowest SwStk% and strikeout rate since his 2019 pro debut in the Rookie league. This looks like a legit breakout, but he’s doing it as part of one of the best teams in baseball, so the best he could hope for at this point is a bench spot.

It’s always exciting when a Rockies prospect is hitting well in the minors as they could immediately become a fantasy option if recalled and given a regular lineup spot. Such is the situation Ryan Ritter could find himself in as he’s sporting career bests among multiple metrics, including an elite 29.15 HR/FB rate and .337 ISO. He has oddly stopped steal bases, as he has just three after swiping 20 in 2023 and 17 last year. Since the Rockies are constantly shuffling the deck and making head-scratching decisions, it’s possible Ritter could end up with a starting job at some point this season. If that happens, I’d speculate in at least 15-team mixed leagues if you’re aching for middle infield help.

After a monstrous Triple-A performance, Luis Campusano is back with the Padres, making him the third catcher on their active roster. He has only started at DH so far, so it’s clear the team is prioritizing defense behind the plate. It also appears he’ll only slot in as the DH against left-handers which will really limit his fantasy value to NL-Only leagues right now. If he does start receiving more regular starts, he’ll make for an excellent play at catcher in more shallow leagues.

Daylen Lile has converted his elite performance into a starting job, as he’s become the Nationals starting right fielder. He owns limited power, but reduced his strikeout rate this year and has posted a BABIP over .300 everywhere he’s played. He also swiped 25 bases last year and was at nine when he was recalled this year. He has a chance to contribute some in steals with a batting average that doesn’t kill you depending on where his BABIP lands.

I don’t understand why Nick Loftin didn’t take over the starting second base job from Michael Massey after showing superb plate discipline at Triple-A with a touch of power. Of course, with Caglianone being recalled, Loftin’s chances of playing regularly are now even lower as RosterResource thinks Jonathan India will now play second regularly with Caglianone DHing. Loftin would have made a nice OBP format contributor if he received the playing time.

With Caglianone recalled, the world now awaits Roman Anthony’s promotion. With 55/70 Game Power, 70/80 Raw Power, and 55/50 Speed, he sounds like a fantasy owner’s dream. Remember some of the names above I praised for their high walk rates? Anthony’s got one too, but it also comes with big power and a high BABIP. Wait, so he literally does everything?! Some concerns do exist though. For one, he has consistently posted low FB% marks and his 24.5% mark at Triple-A this year is what you’d expect from a speedy slap-hitter, not one with elite Statcast metrics like him. That’s great for his BABIP, but hampers his power output and home run upside. Next, he attempted 28 steals last year, succeeding 21 times. This season, he has only attempted six steals, succeeding three times. That’s even with a higher OBP, so he has significantly reduced his attempt rate. That means he’s a bit less of a power/speed combo guy and closer to just a power guy with a handful of steals. Still, I think his fantasy upside is considerably higher than Caglianone’s and he should clearly be stashed in all formats.