Is It Time To Trust Travis Shaw?

There are a number of factors that have contributed to the surprising success of the Milwaukee Brewers thus far in 2017, with many of them found on the offensive side of things. Of those elements that have been essential to their rise in the National League Central, Travis Shaw has been a consistent source of offense, as well as quietly representing one of the more impactful offseason acquisitions of this past winter. After a season in which Shaw experienced a major regression after a hot start with the Boston Red Sox, he’s flourishing in a full-time role in Milwaukee. Does that mean it’s finally time to trust Travis Shaw?

Shaw set forth some expectations heading into the 2016 season that were largely the result of a .217 ISO and a wRC+ of 116 across 248 plate appearances in 2015. He was able to latch onto a larger role due to an early injury to Pablo Sandoval in Boston and got off to a scorching start. However, to say that he came crashing back down to Earth after a hot start would be a gross understatement. He started off strong, but the regression hit him in the most brutal fashion possible. I touched on it last spring, but the numbers below really speak for themselves:

PA AVG OBP ISO BABIP K% BB% wRC+
Mar/Apr 96 .314 .385 .186 .410 24.0 9.4 136
May 119 .275 .336 .239 .347 26.9 6.7 121
June 94 .214 .277 .095 .262 21.3 8.5 49
July 71 .246 .310 .262 .293 28.2 8.5 105
August 80 .167 .250 .125 .208 27.5 10.0 41
Sept/Oct 70 .203 .243 .156 .229 22.9 5.7 50

Those numbers in the first two months of the season were absolutely stellar, almost entirely across the board. However, after the BABIP side of things failed him, he was never able to recover. Interestingly enough, he was hitting the ball quite a bit harder in some of those summer months where he struggled mightily, including a month of July where he posted a Hard% of 40.0. Nonetheless, playing time completely dissipated for him in Boston and he was shipped to Milwaukee in an offseason trade headlined by reliever Tyler Thornburg. And in a deal where Shaw certainly wasn’t the centerpiece, in a national sense, it’s certainly likely that it’ll be referred to as the Travis Shaw Trade moving forward.

The following represents where Shaw sits through the first three months of his first season with the Milwaukee Brewers:

PA AVG OBP ISO BABIP K% BB% wRC+
Mar/Apr 97 .256 .299 .278 .273 20.6 5.2 107
May 105 .333 .371 .202 .403 21.9 5.7 132
June 85 .270 .365 .297 .269 18.8 12.9 135

It’s also worth noting that Shaw’s first three months of the season have also featured far more consistency in terms of contact trends and balance in where the ball is being put into play. Last season, his hard hit rate was lower than his started would’ve indicated before jumping up and then falling back down, while his Oppo% also fluctuated quite a bit. Those have each stabilized themselves thus far in 2017.

Obviously it’s tempting to fall back onto the Travis Shaw bandwagon with a start like that, but we saw the fall throughout the second half of last year, which we are now nearing. However, there are multiple factors at play here that should play into Shaw’s favor moving forward in this 2017 campaign.

For one, he’s receiving consistent playing time. There’s a lot to be said for a player receiving a change of scenery. Especially one that moves him to a rather favorable ballpark and allows him the opportunity to develop as a full-time player. Those elements are all playing into Shaw’s favor far more than they did last season. And moving into somewhat more quantifiable things:

The approach and contact rates have improved rather significantly. Shaw’s Swing% has dropped from 48.0% to 44.0% across the last two seasons, with his swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone dropping by about three percent. That selectiveness is paying off, with a whiff rate that has dropped from over 10% last season, to only 7.9% in 2017. Additionally, Shaw has seen his contact rate rise from 77.6% last year to 82.0% in the first three months of this year. While you might like to see him take advantage of a walk more than 7.7% of the time, it’s hard not to like the fact that his 20.6% walk rate represents a five percent decrease from last year. Those are all figures that bode pretty well for him moving forward.

By park-adjusted offense alone, Shaw has been an above average player all year:

By virtue of his change of scenery and opportunity for a full-time role, there may have already been reason to be intrigued by Travis Shaw. But a lot of what he’s done this year certainly has his stock pointed in the right direction moving forward. His approach and subsequent contact numbers are all trending up, and perhaps doing so significantly. If anything, he could show more growth moving forward. The approach continues to improve and he’s making hard contact far more consistently than he did last season, which means that the weak BABIP numbers from two of the first three months of the season should even out over time.

I was among the first to scream regression at Travis Shaw and his start last season, but he had too many factors working against him to sustain such a strong offensive performance. That isn’t the case this year, as he should not only continue to sustain this type of performance at the plate, with high OBP skills and good power out of the third base position, but perhaps continue to show growth with the opportunity he’s receiving to flourish in Milwaukee.





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HOFConnect
6 years ago

It seems he is almost there, needing better plate discipline and the discussion will soon have him moving in that direction for sure, seeing his SLG of .544 of this year as well. Get more info on fantasy lineups here: http://dfsfreereport.com/get-free-access