Is it time to pickup Max Kepler?

by
April 13, 2016

This week fantasy owners and prospect hounds threw FAAB and caution to the wind as prospects Nomar Mazara, Mallex Smith, and Max Kepler arrived to the Show much earlier than expected. Mazara, who is widely considered to be the one of the best prospects in baseball, has wasted no time impressing those who took a late flyer on him near the end of draft or were able to snag him off waiver wires. On the other hand, Smith has not yet delivered much in terms of fantasy production, but it has only been eight plate appearances. However, the quietest arrival so far has been Max Kepler.

Kepler finally had the breakout that some in the industry were expecting. He hit .322/.416/.531 in AA and was reward with a end of the season call up with the big league club in September. He really improved his plate discipline, pitch recognition, and is starting to turn the natural power into game power. The power has yet to fully develop, but he hit nine home runs last season and his frame and swing project at least 20 homer power. The eighteen steals were a welcome surprise as he is not necessarily known for his speed. His ability to play all three outfield positions and first base was part of the reason for his call up.

Max Kepler 2013-2015
Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
2013 Desert Dogs (R) 18 72 0 8 4 0 9.70% 18.10% 0.078 0.288 0.234 0.306 0.313 0.295
2013 Twins (A) 61 263 9 35 40 2 9.10% 16.30% 0.186 0.254 0.237 0.312 0.424 0.335
2014 Rafters (R) 18 82 0 13 7 3 7.30% 17.10% 0.133 0.377 0.307 0.366 0.44 0.373
2014 Twins (A+) 102 407 5 53 59 6 8.40% 15.20% 0.129 0.304 0.264 0.333 0.393 0.337
2015 Twins (A+) 6 26 0 4 0 1 7.70% 19.20% 0.083 0.316 0.25 0.308 0.333 0.307
2015 Twins (AA) 112 482 9 76 71 18 13.90% 13.10% 0.209 0.359 0.322 0.416 0.531 0.429
SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12144&position=OF

While Manager Paul Molitor has said that Kepler would be used primarily as a defensive replacement during his stint with the Twins, according to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, There is a clearer path to playing time than one might expect. Eddie Rosario, and most of the Twins for that matter, has started out extremely slow this season. Minnesota has yet to win a game and Rosario is hitting a paltry .174/.208/.261 to open the season. The Twins also appear to absolutely hate Oswaldo Arcia with the fire of a thousand suns. So, while Molitor states that Kepler will be mostly a late game defensive replacement, it isn’t out of the question that the attempt to throw him in the lineup some point soon to attempt to jumpstart an anemic lineup.

All three of the recent call ups have a bit of risk in terms of season long fantasy value. Whether it is to protect their service clock, a lack of a permanent spot in the lineup, or needing more development time, there is a high likelihood that they may all end up back in the minors once the veteran they are filling in for returns. I would argue however, that Kepler has one of the better shots to stay up once Danny Santana returns. 1) The Twins HATE Arcia and could easily option him or move him to a new team. 2) The veteran Kepler is filling in for has the least amount of talent, upside and role and could easily be supplanted. 3) The Twins need to start winning now. They brought up Sano and Buxton earlier than expected last season to show the fans that they are ready to compete and if they continue to falter, the attendance will plummet.

Kepler is owned in less than 3% of ESPN or Yahoo leagues, so he should be widely available even is some deeper mixed leagues. He could be a very sneaky stash for those in AL only and leagues with deeper benches. Personally, I would much rather own Kepler over Smith and am already highly invested in the former.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.




 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

6 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
bartelsjason
9 years ago

I like kepler, but I just don’t see him being much more than a high AVG/OBP guy that hits lots of doubles. He is a slower Yelich or less powerful Hayward in my opinion. Right field at Target Field surpasses left-handed power already, and if he lacks that it likely isn’t going to show up anytime soon. In fact, he will probably hit for even less power.

Perfect guy to take over for Mauer at 1B, since the Twins think that is a singles hitter position. I don’t see Kepler getting much playing time unless they send Buxton down or someone gets hurt. I actually think that the Twins are more likely to send Buxton down to work on his hitting, and then slide Rosario over to CF, and then they can put Kepler if LF. That is his best path to playing time in my opinion.

-2
RainmakerMember since 2016
9 years ago
Reply to  bartelsjason

Generally, I agree with your assessment of Kepler — .290/.360/.430 with maybe 15/15 annually — but have you looked at the Twins lineup? That guy is BADLY needed. Mauer and Sano are the only guys that can support an OBP above .320….that is just pitiful!!!

Eddie Rosario isn’t an MLB player and its sad he’s a start in LF for them.

But from a fantasy perspective, I can think of a dozen guys I’d pick up before Kepler mostly because their ceiling is much higher for fantasy purposes.

0