Ignore Stephen Vogt’s First Half

Stephen Vogt was a nice sleeper coming into 2015, especially since the Athletics stated they were going to use him as a regular catcher. He quickly got catcher eligibility in mid-April and his value jump some. His value skyrocketed in early May when he hit 5 home runs in nine days and was producing at a league leading level. This production didn’t continue and he saw quite a bit of drop off over the season’s second half. Going into 2016, Vogt’s projected production should probably be about the same as his overall 2015 production.

The 30-year-olf Vogt came into the season as a catcher play in deeper leagues without much major league experience. He seemed to perform decently in 287 PA in 2014 with 9 HR and a .279 AVG. He was mainly a platoon option but was looking at more playing time between catching and playing first base. Here are David Wiers preseason thoughts on Vogt.

Best used as a platoon player against right-handed pitchers, Vogt does offer value in that role. Don’t make the mistake of simply extrapolating and nearly doubling his 2014 counting production, but Vogt could be a sneaky pickup late in the draft or off of the waiver wire.

David is right in that Vogt is quite a bit better against left-handed pitchers with 17 of his 18 home runs coming against southpaws. Vogt was able to see enough left-handed pitchers to actually double is counting stats

Year: PA, Runs, HR, RBI
2014: 287, 26, 9, 35
2014 (Doubled): 574, 52, 18, 70
2015: 511, 58, 18, 71

Vogt nearly pulled off the perfect doubling, and I would expect similar production looking to 2016 … if his half seasons had not been so extreme. A 138 RC+ in the first half and a 73 RC+ in the second.

My first instinct is to see if there was an injury to blame. There was an injury, but it doesn’t seem to be the cause of the drop.

“It’s been bothering me for about a month,” Vogt said. “Hopefully this shot will take care of it. We’ll have to see how it feels tomorrow catching.”

The plan is for Vogt to be back behind the plate for Thursday’s day game series finale here in Texas. He said his left elbow issue has been more bothersome while catching, although he did also feel it at times while hitting. But he hopes it’s a thing of the past.

“I hit in the cage today, it felt great and hopefully it’s a non-issue moving forward,” Vogt said.

Vogt had an elbow injury, but it was worse before these missed days and then got better. While doesn’t seem to be the cause of the decline, I used this injury to look at his stats before and after.

I found one item different between the two time periods. Pitchers began to attack him in the zone with his Zone% going from 44% to 47%. Over the same time frame, his BB/K went from .75 to .39. The .39 K/BB value is more in line with career values. Nothing points to Vogt’s first half being sustainable.

The extreme half reminds me of Jean Segura’s great first half in 2013. It gave us hope, but Segura has never gotten close to repeating that half season. I expect Vogt’s projections to come in around 15 HR, 130 R+RBI, .260 AVG and 0 SB. Value him to these numbers and try not to dream on his great first half.