Identifying Potential Gems from Steamer600

One of my favorite traditions every winter is to peruse our Steamer600 projections and dream about some potential breakthrough seasons. This puts everyone on equal footing playing time-wise since it is the most difficult factor to consistently project as Rob Manfred simply refuses to turn off injuries in the global settings of the game!

Here are some of my favorite potential breakouts using these numbers:

CATCHER (they do make an exception at C where it’s 450 PA since very few Cs log 600)

Gabriel Moreno | ARI, 194 ADP | .283 AVG, 10 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB

I am still on the Moreno Train! He couldn’t really build on his 2023 breakout because while he did add a few points to his wRC+ total, he only played 97 games and saw his .284 AVG drop 18 points. Thumb and adductor strains in June and August, respectively, cost him about a month of time and contributed to his modest overall output. While it didn’t yield much in the way of his counting stats, it is worth noting that Moreno had a sharp improvement in plate skills, doubling his BB/K from 0.8, tops among catchers with at least 350 PA. A fully healthy season could see the 25-year-old backstop eclipse 400 PA for the first time while this projection likes him for a power surge, too. We did catch a glimpse of power production during their World Series run in 2023 as Moreno clubbed 4 HRs in 70 PA after hitting 7 in 380 during the regular season. The batting average is the key though, so even if he stays more in the 5-7 HR range, there is upside to chase with Moreno. In the last five full seasons (so 2019 added in to replace 2020) there have been just eight instances of a catcher hitting .280+ in at least 400 PA with William Contreras being the only guy to do it twice. I like Moreno to join that club in 2025.

FIRST BASE

Jonathan Aranda | TBR, 329 ADP | .248 AVG, 19 HR, 67 R, 69 RBI, 2 SB

Aranda has been on the deep league fantasy radar the last two seasons because of his huge output in the minor leagues though it has failed to translate in his limited MLB samples so far (99 wRC+ in 333 PA from 2022-24). Part of the problem is that he’s a huge defensive liability so finding time for him isn’t always easy, but it seems like he might finally have a path to playing time against righties. He was a full-time player in September actually drawing a good bit of the 1B time and putting together an .813 OPS with 5 HRs in 91 PA (30 HR full-season pace). While he does look like a pure platoon guy, he did have some success versus lefties in the minors and has only been given 35 PA against them in the majors (admittedly, they’ve gone poorly with a .457 OPS). That said, I’d gladly take 450 PA on the strong side of a platoon as I think he could still reach the 19 HR projection we see from Steamer600.

SECOND BASE

Spencer Horwitz | PIT, 316 ADP | .267 AVG, 14 HR, 69 R, 64 RBI, 4 SB

Horwitz was double traded this winter, first to Cleveland and then immediately flipped to Pittsburgh. PNC Park is 4th in overall park factor for lefties at 104 (CLE 99, TOR 98) so while the Pirates are the worst of the three lineups to be in, his new home park won’t necessarily be hurting him a ton. I do think this power projection comes in a bit light, though, as I could see something in the 17-20 HR output range but I will gladly take a shot on his skills profile with a post-300 pick. With his strong plate skills and good AVG totals coming up through the minors, he could be similar to Moreno where batting average drives the surplus value. I’m always careful not to project too much growth in AVG because of how variable the stat can be even when a player is doing well, but a sneaky .280 AVG/20 HR campaign from Horwitz is on the table. He also has 1B eligibility to add some roster flexibility.

THIRD BASE

Jose Miranda | MIN, 350 ADP | .268 AVG, 17 HR, 66 R, 72 RBI, 4 SB

Miranda had an overall strong season for the Twins, though his trajectory essentially matched the team as his paltry .555 OPS in the final two months came with a 23-32 team record. Make no mistake, I’m not blaming Miranda for their collapse as it was undoubtedly a team effort, I just noticed the parallel with his monthly production. I’m unfazed by the fall, though, and believe Miranda has more in the tank. In fact, we saw 15 HRs from him back in 2022 so reaching his Steamer600 projection wouldn’t even be a huge stretch over previously established production levels. While it wasn’t by design, there is a little bit of a theme with these first four guys here as they all have real AVG upside. It is so hard to consistently find batting average assets outside of the top tier picks who do everything or empty AVG slap hitters later in drafts so I end up gravitating toward mid-rounders who could realistically spike a .280+ AVG with a bit of pop.

SHORTSTOP

Matt Shaw | CHC, 277 ADP | .250 AVG, 19 HR, 70 R, 71 RBI, 18 SB

I went off the board a bit for shortstop because there weren’t really many projections that jumped out to me. Masyn Winn and Zach Neto already both put up solid 600+ PA seasons last season so their projections weren’t really surprising even though I do think both could be even better in 2025 (though Neto’s will depend on his health, so stay tuned on that). I pivoted to the premium prospect for the Cubs who we have penciled into the 3B job as of January 22nd. The 23-year-old infielder had a huge two-level season, posting a 146 wRC+ with 21 HR and 31 SB in 523 PA and of course it’d be foolish to think he’s going to do that in the majors right away, but a Steamer600 projection that is just a stone’s throw from 20/20 is very appealing. This isn’t exactly a cheap price for someone with 0 MLB PA as he goes around guys with some numbers on the board like Ryan McMahon and former organization mate Christopher Morel so he won’t be for everyone and I want to be clear that he is my lightest recommendation of this group. I just didn’t want to leave shortstop blank and I’ll have more on him in the Spring when we get a better read on their plans for him this year.

OUTFIELD

Lars Nootbaar | STL, 264 ADP | .254 AVG, 21 HR, 74 R, 70 RBI, 11 SB

I’m doubling down on Nootbaar after a disappointing 2024, but I’d be remiss not to acknowledge that 5 IL stints over the last two seasons makes it tough to project him for more than 500 PA until we see it. Thankfully his reasonable 264 ADP accounts for some of that risk. He is essentially a 20 HR/10 SB guy per 600 PA over the last three years so this one of those situations where the skills are there, we just need the health! A good plate approach, decent pop, and guaranteed playing time when he’s healthy will keep Nootbaar on my draft board throughout 2025, especially if the price point holds around here (I’d pay upwards of an early-200s pick).