Identifying Keepers Using Steamer600

FanGraphs presents on its pages a few different projection systems (Steamer/ZiPS/Depth Charts-which is a combination of the prior two) and shows preseason projections for each system, rest of season projections, and update projections (which is simply actual year to date performance plus rest of season projections). One of the more unique versions, and the one I will be looking at today, is the Steamer600 projections. These simply take the Steamer projections and assumes every player has the same playing time (600 PA/200 IP for SP/65 IP for RP). The Steamer600 Update projections (found here) incorporate the up to date Steamer RoS projections, so I like to look at them from time to time to get a sense of how Steamer is estimating true talent level regardless of playing time (due to injury, a bench role, or being in the minor leagues). I have taken those Steamer600 Update projections and applied ottoneu FGPTs scoring to find some interesting and surprising names that might be underappreciated as potential keepers.

Greg Bird (1B12 5.43 PPG)

Bird hasn’t played at all in 2015 due to a shoulder injury suffered in the Spring, and Steamer isn’t really accounting for any lingering effects of that injury, but it’s still intriguing to note that the system has the Yankee 1B pegged as a starting 1B in ottoneu, at least from a talent perspective. There are plenty of reasons to be more pessimistic than Steamer is being here, but Bird is an interesting keeper to target if you can get him cheaply, especially since his 60-day DL status means he doesn’t take up a roster spot.

Steve Pearce (2B 6 5.06 PPG)

Pearce was a hot sleeper in some fantasy circles last year after a torrid 2014 with the Orioles (.404 wOBA), but fell flat with a .308 wOBA in his last season in Baltimore. A free agent addition of the Rays this past offseason, Pearce is once again tearing the cover off the ball (.388 wOBA). The great news for ottoneu owners is Pearce not only has 2B eligibility for 2016, but 2017 as well.

Aledmys Diaz (SS7, 5.01 PPG)

The Cardinals shortstop has had a meteoric rise since the season kicked off, and Steamer buys in to his performance, at least partially. The projected points per game is much less than Diaz has done so far this year (6.22 PPG), but it’s hard to complain given how cheaply he is owned ($3.29 average salary).

Alex Bregman (SS8, 4.99 PPG)

From a pure performance perspective, Bregman has been as impressive as any minor leaguer this season, with a .430 wOBA across AA and AAA. It’s hard not to like a player that walks more than he strikes out, and shows pop, all while being shortstop eligible. Steamer is basically projecting Bregman to be a Top 15 MI option in ottoneu right away.

Jake Lamb (3B8, 5.80 PPG)

Like Diaz, this is another case of a player whose current performance is actually much better than this projection, but it’s still impressive that Lamb has so quickly become a good starting 3B in ottoneu. I’m still kicking myself for being a year too early on this breakout, and I would take the over on this projection for sure RoS and going into 2017.

Gary Sanchez (C12, 4.59 PPG)

Sanchez has struggled with some injuries this season, but has put up a fine performance in AAA (.360 wOBA) while waiting for another chance with the Yankees. The bar at catcher in ottoneu is pretty low, especially at the back end, but Sanchez probably represents the best ottoneu catcher option currently in the minors.

Christian Yelich (OF16, 5.53 PPG)

It’s quite possible Yelich lulled some fantasy owners to sleep with his eerily consistent first three seasons (.341, .341, .343 wOBAs ’13-’15), and while he has definitely been a hot target of those looking for a young breakout OF, that breakout has come to fruition. Our consensus preseason rankings had Yelich as OF #24, so this isn’t a huge jump from a rankings perspective, but it does put the Marlins OF in the conversation as a future 1st OF in ottoneu.

Andrew Benintendi (OF41, 5.08 PPG)

All those points I mentioned regarding Bregman? They almost all apply to Benintendi as well. The Red Sox prospect has also displayed fantastic plate discipline and pop, and has been hitting as well as anyone not named Bregman in the minors this season. While outfield is certainly a less favorable position to play for fantasy purposes, the fact that ottoneu requires five outfielders still makes Benintendi’s projection that of a starting player.

David Dahl (OF63, 4.79 PPG)

Like Bregman, Dahl was just called up to the majors this week. It’s hard to know exactly how much Coors Field plays into this projection, but for the short term it probably doesn’t matter, Dahl should be in Colorado for a while. This ranking actually undersells Dahl’s potential if you play in a 5×5 league, as his speed should make him a starting option at OF.

Kyle Schwarber (UTIL, 5.50 PPG)

Schwarber technically will have only Util eligibility to start the season next year in ottoneu, which is why I excluded him above. I still wanted to highlight him, though, because this projection would make him the #2 catcher and the #17 outfielder. Of course, just like Bird, Steamer doesn’t know that Schwarber is currently recovering from a very serious injury, so there may be some rust early next year.

Jose De Leon (SP6, 5.57 PIP)

I’ve written about De Leon before , and his crazy good Steamer projection since before the season started is the biggest reason why. This projection is better than any starting pitcher not named Kershaw/Fernandez/Scherzer/Syndergaard/Strasburg. I’ll give you a moment to let that sink in.

There’s no guarantee that De Leon will make starts with the Dodgers this year, as they may try to plug their leaky rotation via trade, and that could mean De Leon pitches out of the bullpen. Of course, De Leon is a likely name being discussed in any trade the Dodgers pull the trigger on, so he may be wearing a different uniform in a week’s time.

Tyler Skaggs (SP12, 5.19 PIP)

Full disclosure- this projection was pulled before Skaggs’ start last night where he went seven innings without giving up a run with one walk and five strikeouts. Steamer had a favorable projection for Skaggs before the season began as well with a 3.52 projected FIP, but his work in AAA during his rehab has brought that projection down to a 3.25 FIP. As much as I rely on the projections, it’s hard to believe Skaggs is really this good, but he is only owned in 65% of ottoneu leagues right now, so he is a must add if he happens to be available.

Julio Urias (SP22, 4.98 PIP)

Urias has already had some success in the majors this season, and he is obviously either the best or second best pitching prospect in baseball, but it’s still important to make note of how good Steamer thinks he could be right now. Urias probably won’t pitch much the rest of 2016 due to his lack of innings last year, but this projection suggests he could be a key member of an ottoneu rotation in 2017.

Brandon McCarthy (SP30, 4.89 PIP)

I promise it’s just a coincidence that three of the first starting pitchers discussed play for the Dodgers, and all four play in Los Angeles. McCarthy has been brilliant in his return from Tommy John surgery, and Steamer expects more of the same going forward (pending some BABIP and HR/FB regression). McCarthy isn’t exactly young at 33, but he was freely available early in the season and is still only owned in 70% of ottoneu leagues.