I Don’t Get The Hype: Ross, Davis, Pederson
Everybody has their sleeper lottery tickets. By that, I don’t mean known quantities like Adrian Beltre who may be slightly underpriced. Players like Lance McCullers, Corey Seager, and Xander Bogaerts have flashed impressive talent, but they’ve yet to truly prove it’s sustainable. We’re making informed guesses when we reach for them in the draft. Today, we’ll talk about three reaches that I just don’t get.
Ross
First on the docket is Joe Ross. By now, I think we all know the basic background. Joe and his brother Tyson Ross fell into radioactive waste as children, and they both developed mutant sliders. From a purely scouting perspective, Joe’s slider looks merely above average. It’s performance last year was elite.
The sustainability of that pitch is the foundation of his fantasy value. Ross’s fastball is no better than average. You can make a case to call it below average. He doesn’t really throw another pitch unless you’re counting his dumpster fire changeup.
Ross looks to be a front runner for a rotation job. He’s also the obvious odd man out if everyone stays healthy and Bronson Arroyo looks viable. Ross has options, and he has obvious areas in which he can improve.
I think we’ve seen the very best that the current iteration of Ross has to offer. I’m seeing him picked at a reasonable point in the draft – somewhere around the 22nd to 24th rounds. I’m also noticing that his owners are picking him for a prominent role in their rotation. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flier, just try to avoid relying upon him.
Davis
Unlike Ross, Khris Davis is a known quantity. We’re going to get 25 to 30 home runs over a full season with middling but non-terrible production in the four other categories. There are even some things to like about his profile. He’ll probably bat cleanup for the Brewers behind Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun. He also appears to have defeated early career platoon splits.
Proponents likely see his 27 home runs in 440 plate appearances and expect growth. A healthy Davis will play every day, and he was on a 40 homer pace last season. Not so fast! If Davis performs well early in the season, he will be traded. There’s no mights or maybes about it. On a contender, Davis is a down-the-order power bat with limited production in four categories.
If the Brewers happen to keep Davis, it’s because he’s playing poorly. You could try to wait through an early season slump, but it’s unclear if the Brewers will do the same. They have other young outfielders they want to try, and I’m sure they’re eager to push Domingo Santana to a corner.
Davis posted a 24.5 percent HR/FB ratio last season. In his short breakout 2013 campaign, he had a 29 percent HR/FB. The 2014 season tapped in at just 14.5 percent. The plus power isn’t a lock, and it’s damning to see his hard hit rate in a steady three year decline (from 47.6 percent to 40.3 percent to 34.4 percent).
He’s being drafted 140th overall according to FantasyPros. His more reliable clone, Evan Gattis, is pick 168. Maikel Franco, Randal Grichuk, Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon, and half the closers are among the names going after him. I’m not opposed to drafting Davis, but I’m targeting him as the last power bat off the board. I guess I won’t get him.
Pederson
Two picks ahead of Davis is Joc Pederson. The 2015 Rookie of the Year candidate fell apart down the stretch. Fantasy owners were looking for a five category monster. His 30 stolen base speed in the minors translated to a red light in the majors. We now know he’ll be a batting average sinkhole too. His minor league BABIPs left us with reason to believe he could offset his strikeout rate. A high infield fly rate and low line drive rate have dashed those hopes.
There is good news with regard to Pederson – the power reads as very real. With the power comes a discerning eye. He’ll be a solid target in OBP leagues. His ability to reach base should keep him on the short list for leadoff duties even though he’s a weird fit for the role.
Then again, he probably won’t bat leadoff. He was demoted from the top of the lineup in late July and hit eighth for most of the final two months. In those final two months, he hit just .161/.326/.285. He was slumping before the demotion too.
We don’t know why he slumped – it could be a league wide adjustment, a nagging injury, or just a fluke thing from a streaky hitter. What we do know is that the Dodgers have a crowded outfield. That’s true even if they trade Andre Ethier. Although it would hurt his long term value and development, Pederson could be platooned against left-handed pitching. An early season slump could even lead to a demotion. Or a hot streak could see him re-ensconced atop the order.
There are a wide range of potential outcomes. If we’re acknowledging the downside, then the 138 ADP seems to imply the potential of a Bryce Harper or Manny Machado style breakout. There are too many flaws in Pederson’s game to expect half as much upside. In my view, the best case scenario puts him right around the 100th best player. The downside could be ugly. I’d prefer for him to be a bench stash, but his name just has too much appeal.
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Everything you said of Pederson is true, but that first half still happened. Regard the more recent production higher, yes, but let’s not ignore a 20-HR rookie first half.
another article from this very same website has me encouraged about pederson –
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joc-pedersons-ugly-second-half/
e.g. the recent track record for rookies with big first halves and brutal second halves is actually pretty good. it’s not proof of anything, but, there it is.
and i think the best case scenario for pederson is really pretty good – he gets back on a first half type ride and keeps it going, plus dave roberts coaches him up and the steals appear, and you get something like 30/15. how likely that is, obviously is debatable, but if there’s 99 players better than that it’s gonna be a fun year, so that’s what people are drafting.
Isn’t that what Brad is pointing out? 20 HR happened. But that’s it (when your league doesn’t count walks). In that same first half, he had 2 SB, hit .230, and had 86 R+RBI.
A monster upside involves overall production in 2016 being notably higher than his first half production of 2015, not a continuation of what he did in the first half. Certainly possible – I don’t see any reason he can’t steal 20+ bases, for example – just unproven to date.
Plus the 20 HR was based on somewhat lucky performance. Only 5 players in all of baseball maintained a HR/FB rate over 25% for at least 500 plate appearances last year. Either Pederson has truly elite power, or he won’t maintain that rate over the course of a full season.
eh i dunno man, i think a continuation of his first half that wound up with him hitting 40 home runs, people would get over the .230 thing
“Either Pederson has truly elite power, or he won’t” did y’all see the home run derby last year
According to hit tracker, Joc had the longest average home run distance in the majors last year, ahead of Stanton. I’m not calling that luck.
It’s not just the average, though. If we simply extrapolate first half production over 600 PA, that’s 33 HR; 36 HR at 650 PA. I agree people would take that with a .230 average. But the problem Brad is pointing out is that Pederson didn’t steal bases, drive in runs, or score runs, either. His 2015 first half was only a 600 PA pace of 3 SB(!), 75 R, and 66 RBI. He needs to get better as a 24 year old (which is quite possible), not simply return to what he did as a 23 year old.
As far as luck Frank, I’m not sure what you’re saying? A 25% HR/FB rate is not a normal occurrence. Fangraphs doesn’t view Pederson as having 80 grade power. So either the scouting report is outdated (which would be good news), or he won’t maintain a 25% HR/FB rate for an entire season (which makes the downside risk greater and seems the more likely outcome). He’s a great home run hitter. But maybe he hits 25-30 instead of 35-40.
How can this guy be knocked for his low RBI count? The guy batted leadoff for all but what, the last one or two months of the year? Inexplicable that Mattingly ever thought it was a good idea to put a 30 HR guy in the leadoff spot but it definitely hurts RBI’s.
I don’t have a real explanation for the low run count, but based on what has already been supplied, I think there is enough in his profile to suggest that he is not useless just because he has a bad 2nd half as a large number of rookies do. (except last year for some reason)
The guy has the potential to put up a .250/375/500 line in short order, with 90-100 runs, 15 SB’s, and 30-40 HR’s in his best 1 or 2 years. This kind of potential doesn’t grow on trees.
Depending on where Joc hits in the lineup, I think he could still have substantial fantasy value even if he only hits in the .230-.250 range. Despite his .210 average last year, he still had a solid .356 OBP, ahead of Howie Kendrick who hit .295. If he hits towards the top of the order, he should be able to score a lot of runs.
The real question will be his SBs. If he can swipe 20 SBs, he is definitely a viable fantasy option. His production in the minors shows he is capable of 20+ SBs, but the Dodgers were last in the majors in SBs and it seems as though it is a club-level principle not to steal many bases. Perhaps that could change with Dave Roberts as the new manager, and perhaps as a rookie last year, Pederson was more focused on the major aspects of his game (plate discipline, defense) than more ancillary aspects like stealing bases.
Begging for a piece on Addison Russell’s situation now and future.
I agree with everything you wrote here though. Good stuff.
Paul Sporer has a nice piece about him.
I had to look up which Davis you were talking about. Cause even in my mind I thought about Chris Davis after you mentioned the Brewers.
Yep, I fixed that. I originally had a reference sentence in the first paragraph, but I removed it.
Bronson Arroyo isn’t pushing anyone out of any rotation.
Goddamnit stop bashing all my sell high dynasty roster assets! I own all 3!
No one cares.
This is a fantasy baseball web site. Don’t like it? LEAVE.
What? This is exactly the place people care. It’s an article about fantasy value on a fantasy site.
You’re a douche nugget.
Dbag4EVER & Joe’s Momma – please return to the ESPN comment section from whence you came. Not Scott is clearly joking.
Really don’t get the pessimism with Ross. His sinker is clearly a good pitch with good velocity and last year he should the ability to get strikeouts and grounders while preventing some walks in a decent sample. Had a SwStr% of 11.9%. Maybe his slider isn’t elite but it’s possible he improved it and swings and misses stick well from year to year. What’s the textbook definition of a dominant slider anyway? I do have concerns with him against LHP but he could dominate righties and still be league average even if he regresses. He’s only 22 and has room to grow.
*showed the ability
Brad, are you trying to get me to not have any keepers in our league? Jk, buying high on Joc obviously went bust and Ross is Ross…
Please write more of these about every sleeper!
Davis hits a lot of wall scrapers. Besides average of hit velocity, he rarely hits the ball hard. His minor league numbers suggest that he’s way over his head.
Just trying to help Brad.
Why is Ross’ sinker below average? The scouting report on his player page gives it a 65/70 grade (average is 50, 70 is plus-plus). It has above average movement, above average velocity, and he controls it well. Kiley called it “explosive” in his pre-2015 breakdown of the Nats system.
To clarify, the performance of the pitch was average or worse. The main issue is that hitters tend to tee off on sinkers unless there’s something to throw them off the pitch. A slider usually isn’t that something. And I’m not sure Ross’s can be compared to Britton or someone of that ilk.
I do think Ross could be hyper elite as a reliever.
Well there is an entire genre of pitcher known as sinker/slider.
It’s not the highest upside mold but a whole bunch of workhorse type starters are cut from the sinker/slider/show me change up mold.
True, but most of them have more in common with Kyle Kendrick then, well, somebody good. I can’t think of an example who doesn’t also have a good change up (like Liriano).
The best comps last year were Tyson Ross (but he had a decent cutter and change) and Carlos Rodon. I’ve been known to describe Joe Ross as a poor man’s Rodon, so I’m not surprised by this finding. Rubby de la Rosa also fits.
Regarding Joe Ross, the Nats tend to Strasbourg every young pitcher on their roster. I could see them shutting him down in early September or putting him on the DL at the first sign of arm strain to keep his innings down. It’d have to be a 14-teamer or an NL-only for him to be anything other than a streaming option for me. Finally, I wonder, how soon will it be until Giolito is knocking on the door?
I could see them easily dropping him to a swingman role like the one Roark occupied last year if Arroyo impresses in Spring Training. Dusty likes his veterans and he coached Arroyo for six years.
Then again maybe Roark goes back to a swingman role. Far too much uncertainty for a top-3 SP.
Strasburg in 2012 is a completely different story to Ross in 2016. In 2011 Strasburg pitched all of 44.1 innings during a TJ-shortened season, and had thrown 159.1 by the time he was shutdown in 2012. That was an annual increase of 115 innings!
Joe Ross, meanwhile, pitched 152.2 IP last year. Even with a modest increase of 35 innings, you’re looking at an entire season of baseball (~190 IP). There’s no workload concerns with Ross.
True, good point.
C’mon, that take on Ross is pretty short-sighted…..this isn’t a guy that’s 27 and been around the league. We’re talking about a 22-year old that already has the ability to K nearly a batter per inning AND has demonstrated control. This isn’t just “he might be special”, this is “guy already sits in the Top 30 SPs in K-BB”…..at 22. Freaking 22!!!
Let’s use our brains here, Ross already has demonstrated the ability to be a Top-40 SP, if he continues to make strides in development, he could be Top-30 or better by the second half. What about that says “flier”?
8.1 is not nearly a batter per inning. He hasn’t had any consistent minor league track record of high K performances and he was lucky with BABIP last year. If you’re in a deep league go for it, he could be great, in fact I hope he is, but he’s not worth reaching for in a 12-teamer. All I’m saying.
AJ Preller traded him. Darren Balsley must have had a voice before the trade. SO the counter-argument is that the Padres traded Ross because Preller and Balsley can’t identify talent and maybe want Tyson to be sure to leave at some point.
If anythiny Bud Black and Balsley could harness talent. Preller spent his career identifying players and months looking at the Padre farm system. It seems more likely than not, Ross has skills but perhaps not a starter’s tool kit.