I Don’t Get It: Avisail Garcia
As you know, it’s mock draft season. It’s a time to be friendly with our fantasy drafts. Often, we’ll openly discuss how we view certain players or why we’re building a fake roster in a specific way. That extends to congratulating others on “good” picks. Avisail Garcia is one player who always garners a pat on the back. If you can’t tell, I don’t understand the love. I’d like to. I’m open to hearing explanations.
When I ask my fellow experts, most will point to the eye test. I’m currently between MLB.tv subscriptions, so we’ll have to do without any GIFs. I’ve dug up an old scouting video from 2011 and a light tower blast from 2013. The former is perhaps too old to be informative. He looks like a guy who isn’t ready for Double-A. Lo and behold, he was in High-A at the time. He’s definitely improved since then. As for the home run, (almost) everybody looks good when belting one deep.
The White Sox were low on my list of teams to watch last season, but I’m sure I caught at least 10 of Garcia’s starts. What I saw left me wondering about him as a player. There is certainly potential for the light to go on – like with J.D. Martinez. He had to make a mechanical adjustment to tap into his full potential. Garcia has a different problem – pitch recognition.
Many pundits consider pitch recognition to be teachable. Good, right? Anyone who has watched Ryan Howard for the last 10 years knows that not everybody can learn. Garcia swings at pitches inside and out of the zone about 10 percent more often than league average. It contributes to his career 16.4 percent whiff rate. Aggression is also a solution to an extremely high whiff rate. By swinging often, he kept his strikeout rate down to a manageable 23 percent last season. Chris Carter posts similar whiff rates, and he strikes out over 30 percent of the time.
For me, the eye test Garcia passes is the same one passed by Wily Mo Pena. The power is real and anybody can spontaneously improve. We’re left with questions. Is there a specific reason to expect a breakout, or are we just hoping? Can he hit enough to make up for heaps of strikeouts? Will his role in the lineup support strong counting stats?
It’s that first question that has me hung up. I can’t identify a reason why he’s more likely to breakout than say Domonic Brown or Nick Castellanos. Garcia is young, and he has an obvious tool. He’s also never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, and that was split between High-A and Double-A. When I talk to other experts, I hear a lot of hope and very little evidence.
When it comes time to make a draft pick, I’ll be leaving Garcia to my fellows. There is value in playing a few long shots late in the draft, which is right where Garcia fits in my book. His current ADP is 220, so you can target him in rounds 16 to 20 in a 12 team draft. I see too much viable talent around him to take the leap. Steve Pearce, Brandon Belt, Aramis Ramirez, and Chase Utley all have similar ADPs (to name a few).
I wish I had a reason to pick Garcia. I can’t find one.
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Avi has a lot of potential. What one likes about him is his 20-20 potential. I really liked to see his walk rate go up a few points last season. He needs to cut back on his strike out and hit more flyballs. Its also important to note though that he has not played close to a full season in the majors yet. Once that happens then we can realistically evaluate Garcia.
I think you just proved Brad’s point.
this can be said of a lot of guys
Yes, this is also why I like Zach Walters.
Uhh did you even read the article?
Over 226 PAs in AA, Garcia hit .312. Over 241 PAs in AAA, Garcia hit .366. In half of the 2013 season at the MLB level, Garcia hit .283 with 7 HR and 3 SB — in his age 22 season. In one-third of the 2014 MLB season, Garcia hit .244 with 7 HR and 4 SB — in his age-23 season.
2014’s low AVG looks like the outlier, but even if he doesn’t improve on the .244 AVG in his age-24 season, over a full season of health Garcia would hit ~20 HR and steal 10 bags. That’s easily worth an ADP of 220. (Also keep in mind that he plays in an excellent hitter’s park for HR, with a RH park factor of 119.)
I am buying.
Garcia’s MLB data should be discarded for the most part. At least the 2nd half of last year. He was coming off a big injury.
People like avisail because every tool has + potential. He was one of the youngest players at every level, and that includes AA and AAA where he hit very well.
He’s a young aggressive player. That can be toned down with baseball reps. I think avi may be more valuable as a player this year than a fantasy option but he’s a talented kid.
Well the point of the article was that he has yet to show any of that + potential with performance.
The AA and AAA numbers posted above, as one of the youngest players at the level, isn’t enough for you?
I guess my part that “I don’t get” is the constant reference to his great tools. The guy was never even a top 50 prospect by scouting rankings. It just seems like he came from off the radar and kinda resembles Miggy in build/homeland and we all of a sudden have a guy that fans think is a top prospect but places like BA barely mention.
I see a big bodied slugger who doesn’t walk and K’s too much. I guess in batting average leagues it plays, but in obp he just isn’t very sexy.
You’re right, he has been a top 100 not top 50 prospect and has been consistently ranked high in the White Sox organization for years. His stats in AAA disagree with your assessment where he has posted a high OBP. That said, it is still a small sample size in both AAA and the Majors.
I’m not jumping out of my shoes at the guy, but if I’m choosing at 220 and the next best option is A-Rod. I’m probably taking Garcia, at least there is some potential upside there.
I grabbed him at 212 last night. There always comes a point where it makes sense to take a shot. When this was written he was looking more like #150. And his auction price tends to run about $10.
Maybe people just confuse him with Oswaldo Arcia.
This
I was going to say something about him being a poor man’s Arcia. It didn’t make the cut 🙂
Good article with some good points. However, if I take Steamer projections (which seem to be light on playing time – only 131 games) and project it over 148 games (reasonable if he is healthy), I get a guy that should rank around 150 ADP.
So since you don’t mention health as an issue, I think I can assume that you would agree with the 148 game projection, right? If so, then you’re saying that you really disagree with Steamer on this one. I’m not sure but I think Steamer doesn’t have a component that factors in eye tests or hope. Thoughts?
I get what you’re saying with regards to the numbers not being unimpeachable at this point, but he’s also learning on the job with just 109 games in the high minors. Essentially losing last season for development was a bummer, but in the fantasy realm he can mix power and speed batting in the middle of a solid lineup which is an alluring combination. It’s a bet on the come for sure. If everything was already in place numbers-wise, he’d be through-the-roof overrated like Mookie Betts.
If he only does his Steamer projection (.263-18 HR-9 SB), he’s essentially a 2014 Alex Gordon-lite (.266-19-12) which Gordon needed 156 games for and Garcia is slated by Steamer to do in 131 games. If Garcia stays healthy, he can match or eclipse Gordon at a price five rounds cheaper.
More than a few of us, I think, got our first glimpse of Garcia during the Tiger’s 2012 playoff run, when announcers CONSTANTLY compared him to Miguel Cabrera, they’re the same height, weight, similar facial features, similar batting stance, etc. The Miggy comparison certainly put Avisail on my prospect radar, although I agree that numbers have never backed up that. I’ll pass.
It’s his ability to hit line drives to RF that has a lot of White Sox fans excited. He’s not even hitting his pull homers yet. I’m buying.
I wasn’t high on Avisail when the Sox acquired him, but he’s definitely grown on me. I see a guy that’s gonna hit a ton of lasers into the gaps and might elevate enough of those to reach the 20 HR mark. He’s hit for a good enough average and steal around ten bases. Still not sold on his outfield play, but he definitely gives his all out there. I think he’ll be a solid number 3 outfielder in most fantasy leagues.
I am high on Avisail for three reasons.
The first is that this year’s White Sox is a powerhouse and a perfect environment for Avisail to learn and grow as a young hitter. The White Sox don’t need to rely on Avisail.
The second is that he already has ability to hit to all fields. Grated his Groundball rate has been north of 50%, but he is also young and has yet to even play a full season in the majors, so I wouldn’t fixate on that number just yet. If he hits the ball to the outfield, it goes in every direction an equal amount (just look at his outfield spray chart.) So the high groundball rate could be pitch recognition and something in his swing based on a certain way the pitchers are pitching to him. That means this could be reduced.
The third : his BABIP was .285 last year, the first time it was under .300. And Avisail has some speed, so it’s a good assumption that should be greater than .300 this year. Which means his average will be at least .275. And in a lineup where he is surround by good veteran hitters, we are looking at a guy who is a good bet to go 20-10 HR-SB with 80+ rbi’s and 80+ runs and a batting average north of .275.
How is this guy not a good choice for Outfield position #4 or #5 ?
For the record, he’s my fifth outfielder right now.
I also admit I wouldn’t have been so high on Avisail, were it not for 2 things:
1) the White Sox hired Melky Cabrera, so Avisail get sit behind Abreu instead of in front. Melky will be good for Avisail as a mentor too.
2) The White Sox are committed to him. Their staff and announcer “Hawk” Ken Harrelson loves Avisail. So I trust that he will get his shot this year at the very least.
I know it’s really premature, but are you coming around on Avi yet? BABIP regression, I know, but good solid contact and a nice approach. This is the potential he’s flashed at times for WSox fans.