HR/FB Surgers & Decliners Using League-Relative Statcast Power Metrics

Last week, I unveiled new research that concludes looking at league-relative Statcast power metrics, such as HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% could help forecast the direction of both Barrel% and HR/FB rate the following season. The data was bucketed into two groups, A being those with high relative HardHit% and maxEV marks, but low Barrel%, while B included those with low relative HardHit% and maxEV marks, but high Barrel%. Let’s now identify and discuss the names that met each group’s criteria in 2025 as we look forward to 2026.

There were 26 names (16 in Group A and 10 in Group B) that met either group’s criteria, but not all are fantasy relevant and some just barely met the criteria. So we’ll only discuss the fantasy relevant hitters that met the criteria by a meaningful margin. Let’s begin with Group A — the potential surgers.

Bo Bichette’s HardHit% jumped to the second highest of his career, while his maxEV wasn’t too far off past years. But oddly, his Barrel% was second lowest of his career after just a partial rebound off his down 2024. That resulted in his second worst HR/FB rate, basically right around league average. Citi Field has been slightly better for right-handed home runs over the past three seasons than Rogers Centre, with both inflating them. But all of that outperformance came in 2024, when Citi was bizarrely the third best place for right-handed home runs in baseball. It’s bounced around all over the place the last three seasons, so hard to get a read on how it compares to Rogers. That said, the Statcast metrics, his history, and age, suggest that Bichette should almost certainly increase both his Barrel% and HR/FB rate this season.

Brandon Nimmo is coming off a career high HardHit% and maxEV, though the former was far more impressive than the latter. And yet, his Barrel% remained stuck in single digits and actually declined from the previous two seasons. His new home park has been slightly better for left-handed home runs, but likely not enough to make a significant difference. It’s hard to project a 33-year-old to see a jump in HR/FB, especially since his 2025 mark was still above his career average. I would probably bet on his Statcast metrics regressing, as oppose to repeating and leading to a higher HR/FB.

Carlos Correa’s HardHit% has remained pretty consistent, though his maxEV dropped to its lowest since 2020 and that was just a partial season. So this was actually his lowest over a full season since 2017. But his Barrel% was also his lowest over a full season, while his HR/FB fell to a career low. The HardHit% suggests he still owns consistent power, though perhaps his raw strength declined a bit. That said, that Barrel% looks to rebound, bringing his HR/FB rate along for the ride. He’s become as boring as can be, which should make him undervalued in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues.

Francisco Lindor’s HR/FB rate has been pretty consistent and his HardHit% and maxEV have been as well. But interestingly, his Barrel% hit double digits from 2023-2024 and that was that. Perhaps there’s a bit of upside in that HR/FB rate if he gets back into a double digit Barrel% for the third time, but I would bet on more of the same given his history.

After an elite fantasy season in 2024, Gunnar Henderson was a massive disappointment last year, both for fantasy owners and in real life, though the 30 steals did ensure he was plenty valuable. His HardHit% dipped marginally, but remained well above league average, while his maxEV actually notched a career best. His Barrel%, though, dropped back into single digits, which seems hard to do given the Statcast metrics just mentioned. His HR/FB rate plummeted more than ten percentage points, which is pretty crazy for a 24-year-old. He looks like an obvious power bounceback, though it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll reach 30 steals again. So an increase in power could merely by offset by a decline in steals, however the increased power could also boost his runs scored and RBI totals back toward 2023 and 2024 levels.

How does Heliot Ramos post that combo of HardHit% and maxEV, yet manage a sub-10% Barrel% and just an 11.9% HR/FB rate?! His home park has obviously hurt, as it’s been the third worst in baseball for right-handed dingers. But the park doesn’t impact Barrel% and that Statcast metric pair just doesn’t typically match with an 8.8% mark. He looks like a near lock for improved power this season which could give him a bit of shallow mixed league value.

Yeah, so I said fantasy relevant at the top and Jasson Domínguez is currently without a starting job. But still, this is the former Yankees top prospect, ranked 21st overall, so figured he is worth discussing. Domínguez posted the third highest HardHit%, but fourth lowest Barrel% on this list. It’s clear he owns the raw power, but man, he’s just not optimizing his swing to take advantage. One of the most obvious reasons is a hatred for pulling his flies, as he posted the eighth lowest flyball Pull% among 292 qualified batters last year. Of course, that’s not automatically a power death knell, as just below him in Pull% is teammate Aaron Judge, and he’s had no problem accessing his power. There are actually a lot of high power names surrounding Domínguez, but still, it might be a cause here. I still like his skill set so definitely wouldn’t give up on him if he finds himself with regular playing time.

So Luis García Jr. recorded a career best HardHit% and Barrel%, and the second highest maxEV of his career, yet his HR/FB rate fell and finished just below his career average. Huh? Oh, and his FB% has increased every single year, which boosts his home run upside even further. Given the double digit steals, he seems like a nice play in most leagues.

Trea Turner has consistently posted slightly above average HardHit% marks and maxEV, but well below average Barrel% marks. Why?! At his age, I wouldn’t bet on that changing. However, he’s coming off the lowest HR/FB rate of his career, and that looks sure to rebound this season.

Trevor Larnach’s Statcast metrics make him seem like a consistent mid-to-high teen HR/FB rate guy, but he hasn’t been. His metrics remained strong again, but somehow his Barrel% plummeted to a career low, well below league average, which is just shocking. I’ll go on record calling for 20+ home runs this year.

William Contreras played through a finger injury which might explain the deep drop in Barrel%, as his other Statcast metrics remained stable and incredibly strong. I wouldn’t bet on a jump back into the 20%+ HR/FB rate range again, but a healthy Contreras should get back into the mid-to-high teens.

Yandy Díaz absolutely crushes the ball, but he hits so many grounders and also rarely pulls his flies, ranking fourth worst last year. His HR/FB rate has really bounced around, and it’s hard to call for another jump after tying his career high. He’s also getting up there in age, so you might start to see some chinks in the armor.

Let’s now flip over to the potential decliners — Group B.

Gosh Andrew Benintendi’s power history has been pretty crazy! His HardHit% and maxEV were in line with history, but somehow his Barrel% spiked into double digits for the first time. Yet, his HR/FB rate just fell short of his 2024 when he posted a Barrel% just over half of his 2025 mark! I would imagine his 2026 Barrel% falls back, though his HR/FB rate should remain relatively stable just into double digits. Since he stopped stealing bases, he’s not exactly an appealing fantasy asset.

Austin Hays now joins his fourth team since 2024 after posting a career best Barrel%, despite declines in both HardHit% and maxEV. Oh, and his strikeout rate hit a career worst as well, driven by his highest SwStk%. He might play every day for the lowly White Sox, but there’s nothing to see here.

Weirdly, Bo Naylor posted higher marks in all three Statcast metrics, but his HR/FB rate fell to a career worst. I don’t think he’ll repeat that Barrel%, but his HR/FB rate should at least rebound marginally. Of course, that doesn’t help his lack of BABIP skills and batting average hovering near .200 the past two seasons.

It’s unlikely Brooks Baldwin posts another double digit Barrel%, but it’s not like his HR/FB rate should be expected to fall precipitously. If he could contribute a touch in both power and speed, he’ll be a deep mixed and AL-Only asset, but will need to cut down on his strikeout rate and avoid a platoon.

Remember when Carson Kelly hit 7 homers by the end of April? He finished that month with a 33.3% HR/FB! Of course, he couldn’t maintain that pace and his rest of year was weak enough on the power front that he ended up not too far above his career averages after all. He did tie his previous high in HardHit% and set a new career best in maxEV and Barrel%, but the latter is probably over his head. He’s unlikely to repeat.

I was skeptical of Connor Norby’s power when he was first recalled, because his minor league HardHit% and maxEV didn’t come anywhere close to matching his HR/FB rates. He managed to make me look silly during his 2024 debut, but then his HR/FB was cut in half in 2025 to a level that better matches his Statcast metrics. However, he’s still on this list because that Barrel% remains tough to record given the middling HardHit% and maxEV. That said, he only posted a 9.9% HR/FB rate and is just 25, so he could certainly increase his power and be a decent source of power and speed this year.

Dylan Crews has posted higher HardHit% marks in the past and his maxEV is right around the league average. I think his Barrel% would be tough to replicate without his HardHit% rebounding, but his prospect pedigree and power grades, along with his age, makes me think it wouldn’t be right to expect a decline in power. If anything, he might come at a discount this season given his injury-marred disappointing year.

Kyle Tucker?! I know it’s weird seeing his name buried at the bottom here. Tucker has never been a big EV guy, which is surprising, but he’s still always posted double digit Barrel% marks. This year, his HardHit% plummeted to a career low, while his maxEV was second lowest of his career. Normally this would be a scary power skill set to invest in, but he’s also coming off the lowest HR/FB rate of his career and moving to a home park that’s been significantly better for left-handed home runs. So yeah, I think he’ll be fine.