How Pitching is Scored in ottoneu FanGraphs Points Leagues
Interested in playing in my ottoneu league, using this scoring system? See the bottom of this post for info on how you can join!
Last week we looked at hitter FanGraphs Points, which are built on linear weights. A complementary pitching points system was more difficult to devise: you can’t just use linear weights, because then you’d be rewarding the pitcher who gave up the most runs!
Therefore, it was necessary to develop a system that had some objective basis, but would a) reward good pitchers for being better than bad pitchers, and b) have point totals that would correspond to those of hitters. And, just as our hitting system doesn’t track statistics that are substantially affected by other players (like RBI or runs), our pitching system should reward pitchers for what they do as opposed to what their teammates (pitchers and fielders) do. That means no wins, runs allowed…or hits.
After a combination of theory, intuition, and trial & error, the following system was developed:
IP: +5
K: +2
BB: -3
HBP: -3
HR: -13
SV: +5
HLD: +4
The first number is just tracking innings. To some degree, this number was just chosen because it works: pitchers scale closely with hitters, both per season and per week. But it has some theoretical backing as well: since we are using an absolute-runs baseline in our points system, an average pitcher should earn a half of a win for each nine inning game he pitches (i.e. he’ll win half of his games if he is average). A half win corresponds to ~5 runs, which converted to points (x 10) and divided across 9 innings works out to 5 points per inning.
Next are the events in those innings: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. If you’re a number junky, you probably recognize those values: they’re the same coefficients used in FIP. FIP is a very successful statistic for evaluating pitching performances, and it focuses exclusively on statistics over which a pitcher has complete control. If you follow that link, you’ll see Kincaid’s superb demonstration that these values ultimately are derived from linear weights. And, those values work well in this context too.
Finally…there are saves and holds. Wait, saves and holds? For a sabermetrix points system?!? Yes. We need a way to recognize the value of relievers that throw in high leverage situations. In FanGraphs WAR, for example, relievers are given partial credit for the high leverage of their innings in recognition of the extra impact those innings have on the outcome of games. Adding points for saves and holds mimics this, albeit imperfectly: we effectively give closers double-credit for those innings in which they record a save. The reason that holds are set so close to the point values for saves is that it prevents the save from ruling all: Raphael Soriano loses some value by not being the Yankee closer, but it’s not so much to tank his value compared to other relievers. When combined with a 1500 innings cap and 5 RP slots, relievers, not just closers, have a lot value in ottoneu.
Here are the top-10 pitchers based total FanGraphs Points from 2010:
| Name | Pts | IP | FIP |
| Roy Halladay | 1271 | 250.7 | 3.12 |
| Felix Hernandez | 1257 | 249.7 | 3.15 |
| Adam Wainwright | 1203 | 230.3 | 2.95 |
| Cliff Lee | 1167 | 212.3 | 2.68 |
| Justin Verlander | 1147 | 224.3 | 3.09 |
| Jered Weaver | 1127 | 224.3 | 3.18 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 1103 | 221.7 | 3.13 |
| CC Sabathia | 1079 | 237.7 | 3.58 |
| Tim Lincecum | 1047 | 212.3 | 3.17 |
| Zack Greinke | 1042 | 220.0 | 3.45 |
| Josh Johnson | 1040 | 183.7 | 2.50 |
| Francisco Liriano | 1039 | 191.7 | 2.78 |
Not a bad list, right? The two reigning Cy Young winners really were in a class by themselves.
Now for the fun part: I’m running an ottoneu league based on this scoring system, and would be happy to have it filled with readers. Our draft begins March 8th at 8:30pm EST, and will be held on consecutive nights until completed. So, if you’d like in, please, in the comments below, name one player who you think will have a massive difference in value using this system compared to a traditional roto category system, and explain why. Some of these players may be discussed in next week’s article! I can’t give you out free teams, unfortunately, but I’ll gladly send an invite to my league to those who respond. Remember, teams are just $9.99 through the end of this month!
Update: Let’s just open this up to the public. The draft time (March 8th, 8:30pm EST, and then on consecutive nights at about that time) is pretty inflexible, so I’ll take anyone who is interested and can make that time. Here’s a link for the league: Justin Merry (RotoGraphs)
Update #2: The league is full! Thanks to everyone for your interest.
Justin is a lifelong Reds fan, and first played fantasy baseball on Prodigy with a 2400 baud modem. His favorite Excel function is the vlookup(). You can find him on twitter @jinazreds, even though he no longer lives in AZ.
What were the points totals for the best relief pitchers?
I don’t have SP’s broken down from RP’s handy, but here are all pitchers:
http://bit.ly/i1f9Dh
Quick scan, I see:
Wilson
Marmol
Bell
Wagner
Belisle
Soria
Gregerson
Keep in mind that we use an innings cap in the FanGraphs game. Even though relievers get far fewer points than starters, they tend to have much higher points per IP (this is aided by the saves/holds, but it’s true even without them). That can make them extremely valuable, since you can’t just spam innings to earn pitching points all season.
-j
Thanks for the numbers.
I see what you mean.
Points/IP
Roy Halladay 5.084
Brian Wilson 9.089
Hi Justin,
I have been scouring for a more thoughtful and accurate way of defining stats as I create my own points league over at Yahoo (first timer!). I really appreciate the method described here and think it makes a ton of sense. It also seems as if one thing is missing here, which is defensive statistics. If the aim of these stats is to try to match actual specific value of each player then doesnt the system need in some way to account for their value in preventing runs? In practical terms, it seems that without including defensive stat categories, the value of all defensively geared players goes down (in terms of draft value), and priority will naturally be placed on players who can hit, regardless of their defensive value.
As a San Francisco Giants fan, I am a big fan of plenty of players who may lack relative value in runs created but shine when it comes to runs prevented.
Do i have it all wrong? And if not, do you have advice on how i could create some defensive categories that would mesh well with the existing system you outline here?
Thank you!
In my standard roto league last year I took Yovani Gallardo fairly high in the draft banking on a huge season. While he was decent for me, he didn’t provide me with enough wins and a low enough ERA. He would have been much better for me in a FanGraphs points league because of his K’s and the lack of homeruns he surrendered last year.
Yeah, he had an amazing FIP last year. 25th in overall points. Only his inning total kept him out of the elite.
-j
woops, i forgot to log into my account before I wrote my post about Gallardo
As I suspected, the biggest standout on the list (in terms of FG points value over 5×5 value) is probably Dan Haren. Part of it is that he threw 230 innings, but good fortune certainly did not fall on him last year. I owned him the full year in a 5×5 league and refused to give up on him, waiting for the regression to come and turn his season around.
Ironically, he ended up putting up better 5×5 stats when he moved to Anaheim, meanwhile his excellent peripherals went in the opposite direction. Very strange season.
James Shields might not be the best pitcher, but he carries one of the best values.
Based on (FanGraphs fan) projections, Shields would score 902 pts.
Just to give you some examples using the same projection, check out the pts these topflight expensive pitchers would score:
Brett Anderson: 830
Ricky Nolasco: 876
Matt Latos: 963
Josh Johnson: 1061
Now just imagine how much cheaper you can get him than those 4 guys. (There are others, I just picked those names to serve as an example)
May I add that the best sleeper is most likely to be Carlos Zambrano.
Why? Because he is eligible at RP this year. Now, the limit is 1500 innings, but if you have 4/5 true relieves, he basically would give you the point total of around 700-800 pts. Which not even the most elite closer can come close to. (Elite closers would net you, most likely, around 400-500 pts.)
(shhhhhh, its our secret. Tim Stauffer might be a good idea too.)
You can also stream good pitchers if you’re playing chicken with the 1500 inning cap. Nothing to stop you, and you could still give the RP slot to a closer.
-j
What if I said the difference or drop off between Yovani Gallardo and Livan Hernandez is the same as the drop off between Ubaldo and Liriano? That’s right. Only 64 Fangraph points separate Ubaldo (1103) and Liriano (1039) and that is the same between Gallardo (935) and Livan (871).
Livan did have an atypical year for him. However, looking at him with Roto stats no one would pay any attention to him (10 W, 3.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP 114K). Sure the ERA is okay but no one is going to draft him for Wins because he played for the Nats or for strikeouts (114 K in 211 IP). No one will look at him in Roto over Gallardo. Yet, however, in FanGraph points he would have been a solid value under the radar pick.
Past performance does not mean future value.
I’d guess that he’ll go undrafted in my 20-team league that uses this scoring system.
-j
Also….
Livan really did have a very good year for the Nationals. He was all kinds of lucky, probably, but you can’t deny that he threw 211 innings with a 3.66 ERA and a 3.95 FIP. That’s a mighty fine result, and he helped that team a lot.
-j
I’m not positive that you folks were interested in entering my league, but I sent invites to those of you who have thrown out a player. 🙂
If you are interested, please indicate as much in future responses.
-j
Gang,
Having trouble with numbers and passwords. Let’s just open up the league as first come first served. I’ve asked Niv to do this, so take a look-may appear in the list soon. It’s called Justin Merry (RotoGraphs).
Draft begins March 8th, evening, and will run on consecutive nights until done. I’m pretty constrained time-wise, so it really has to happen then.
Thanks,
Justin
We are public and available. Welcome to anyone who is interested! There are 10 spots available as I write this.
Justin
Thanks for the invite. Already got myself into one of the first leagues that formed on ottoneu this year (we were the first to start drafting supposedly), so I think I’m all set.
At the top of my head I would think that Tommy Hanson would have had significant value last year using the FanGraphs points system. I seem to remember him having a lot of good starts (in this case innings) blown by a porous Braves defense, more specifically Troy Glause. Let me calculate… 964 points last year. Not bad. He was ranked 96th in the Yahoo standard 5×5 last year. I’m beginning to really like this idea.
Def. interested in the league.
Ps. I agree with jaywrong about Zambrano. He was lights out after his stint in anger management last year. The only thing is the games did not matter because the Cubs were long out of the playoff-race. In August and September he was 7-0 in 10 starts with 68 Ks in 66 IP. His FanPoints must have been out-of-control in those 2 months.
Generally speaking, I think that guys that underperform their peripherals would be more valuable. Ricky Nolasco stands out as a candidate. I think Edwin Jackson and Brandon Morrow could be good candidates too. I’m pretty sure Morrow in particular had a huge gap (more than a full run) between his ERA and FIP.
Hey Justin, I received your invite, but there was no password so it would not let me enter the league.
I don’t play roto, but my impulse is to identify someone who would have very little roto value because of wins, runs allowed, hits…the things which are factored out of this scoring system. This means I’m looking for a pitcher on a team which plays bad defense and doesn’t win many games. FanGraphs team ranking shows that the worst defensive team in 2010 was Pittsburgh. Any defensive upgrade provided by Overbay should be lost through additional playing time for Alvarez and Walker. Given the expected win-loss record for the Pirates, I’ll dig here for buried treasure.
Paul Maholm is the default ace of the staff. Over the past 3 seasons, he has averaged 195 IP, 5.53 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 4.39 ERA. He projects for about 8 or 9 wins and an ERA in the mid-4 range. Where’s the 5 category value?
Maholms’ 3-year FIP of 4.05 is in the ballpark with Jonathan Sanchez (4.01) and Mark Buehrle (4.10). His 0.77 HR/9 average puts him in the top 20 among qualified pitchers. So you can expect a pretty good number of innings with a fair number of strikeouts, not too many walks, and a low amount of homers allowed. That won’t make him a high draft pick, but compared to his rotisserie value, Maholm’s points could represent a bit of Pirate gold.
I’m looking for a league to join.
Did the point values for pitchers change recently since Ottoneu was first released? I seem to remember Saves being worth 7 points originally and Holds were not on the board at all. Can anyone confirm this is the true scoring for Ottoneu for pitchers?
Yes, they were initially 7 points. After much discussion this past week, we decided to drop them to 5 points.
You can see the current values on the ottoneu support page:
http://ottoneu.fangraphs.com/support
They are the same as these.
7 points for saves are used in a head to head league I run in which IP caps are not available. The need for the extra points is mitigated by the IP cap in ottoneu (not possible in h2h format). We felt it created too large of a disparity between closers and the other relievers in this format to keep saves at 7. We also have added holds, which will be set to almost the value of saves. This should keep the emphasis on finding good relievers, as opposed to guys who happen to be used as closers.
-j
I should add, these should be final values. Some leagues are already drafting, which means no more changes.
Justin
Justin — Is that 8:30pm in what time zone for the draft for your league?
Also, any special rules for the league? Niv mentioned some leagues might choose to not do the full 40-man roster but keep it a little more simple with a 30, 35 or something like that. Thanks.
Sorry, 8:30pm EST.
No special rules. I can see deciding to discontinue the auction at a certain point based on how long it is going. But even if we did that, I think managers can still add up to the 40-man roster via the in-season auctions on free agents. My plan at this point is to go ahead and draft the full 40 man rosters.
-j
It’s awesome to see this because the keeper league I’ve been in for 5 years now we essentially tried to do this with trial and error before any of us really got into sites like fangraphs and our total point outcomes for pitchers come out really close to the one above.
IP-6
ER- (-2)
Hit- (-1.75)
HR- (-1)
BB/HBP (-1.75)
K-1
W-8
L- (-3)
Save- 7
Hallday 1286
Felix 1205
Wainwright 1177.5
I’ve tried to make my stand on W/L being eliminated but can only pick and choose so many battles. Would be curious to see if anyone had any suggested tweaks to make it more accurate.
Main thing I see (aside from W/L–though at least those aren’t overpowering relative to IP) is that home runs are only worth -1 point. I guess with hits they’re actually -3 points, but that’s a big source of negative points in our system (and in FIP) (-13 per HR).
Aside from that, yep, pretty similar overall. Obviously having hits included makes a big difference in terms of the value of other points. We’re essentially assuming an average hit per ball in play rate with the FIP-based system.
Justin
Oops, make that -5 points, including the ER. I missed that ER were included. That’s a big equalizer.
-j
Added a direct link to the league:
http://bit.ly/hnO1EW
Again, I’m happy to have whoever wants to join. The auction will begin at 8:30pm EST Tuesday, March 8th.
Justin
And….that league is full! Thanks folks for all the interest.
Justin
Hi Justin,
Any thoughts on the idea of modifying for defensive fielding stats as per my post below?
Thanks!