How I Won 2026 AL Tout Wars

It was a nail-biter, to say the least, but when the last out of the regular season was recorded, I won my fourth Tout Wars title, and third in the AL league. So how did I accomplish such a feat? It was a combination of some shrewd in-season pickups, along with a massive, massive sprinkling of good fortune. Now, nearly every league winner requires some dose of luck, whether it’s avoiding injuries, hitting on breakouts, etc., but this league was different. Let me allow this screenshot to do the talking:

Your eyes are not deceiving you. Sixth place finished just 4.5 points behind me, which is CRAZY! I’m sure it’s impossible to research, but has there ever been a league that close in history? I’m sure this is the closest finish in Tout Wars history, but what about any league that ever existed? Like what are the odds of such a close finish between the top six teams?

I could have easily finished second, third, or fourth. One more steal from Ian Kahn’s team would have lost me half a point. One more win from Jeff Winick’s team would have lost me half a point. One more win from Raphael Rabe’s team would have lost me half a point and two from his team would have cost me a full point. A couple of scoreless innings by Doug Dennis’ staff could have lost me an ERA point. If the season lasted a couple of additional games, I could have easily just been another name in the top six, rather than the winner.

There’s nothing to learn from this, but it was quite the thriller these last couple of weeks as my team constantly flip-flopped between the top three. Where I would ultimately land was completely up in the air, so it was quite the exciting finish to end up on top.

Let’s now review the team I originally rostered at the auction and then discuss my most meaningful in-season transactions.

By all accounts, this was not a good team after auction day. I thought this team would be good, of course, but it definitely did not turn out that way! However, the team was a bit better than the perception of the mere 182.2 total end of season value it accumulated, as fellow champion Alex Chamberlain’s research discovered that the average team leaves the auction with about 165 units of end of season value. So 182.2 is above that, but certainly not at a level you would expect would have competed for first place, and it’s well below Alex’s mark over 200.

Of course, I didn’t actually keep every player active all season, so the profit/loss my own team achieved from each player doesn’t always match. Let’s quickly run through the names.

Ryan Jeffers was off to a fabulous start until he suffered a hamate bone injury that knocked him out in mid-May. I can’t remember what I had read at the time, but it must have been ominous enough for me to drop him for a 10x FAAB rebate, adding 140 units to my FAAB total. That ended up being a dumb move because he returned in mid-July and was perfectly solid, while I struggled at the catcher position all season.

Logan O’Hoppe, UGHHHH. And he was a Driveline Baseball graduate! I had such high hopes.

Career highs in home runs, RBI and OBP for Willson Contreras only resulted in a 3.5 unit profit. Weird, but he was one of the few that actually profited at all.

This is what I said about Munetaka Murakami in my original auction recap article:

So…Munetaka Murakami. I am so conflicted on him that I actually can’t believe I paid $19 to roster him. On the one hand, I am quite concerned about his ability to hit high velocity fastballs, resulting in tons of strikeouts. Nearly all the projections call for a strikeout rate over 30%. Initially, I wondered if he could hit poorly enough that he earns a demotion. Then I remembered he’s on the White Sox on a $34 million contract, so there’s almost no chance he ends up at Triple-A. So okay, but poor performance is going to kill my team and result in a loss, right? Well, remember the note above about Tout’s usage of OBP instead of average? It comes into play here. Murakami’s lowest walk rate in NPB has been 12.5% and he walked as often as 19.3% of the time, back in 2022. Last year, he posted a 14.3% walk rate. He’s been a walk machine, which is going to likely result in one of the largest AVG vs OBP format value gaps in all of fantasy baseball.

Depending on his strikeout rate and BABIP, he could end up being just a neutral in OBP or a real plus. Even with all the strikeouts, he owns massive power, so he’s really not all that different than a Vinnie Pasquantino (who went for $25) or Spencer Torkelson (who went for $18), with greater OBP upside. The hope here is that he’s some mix of peak Adam Dunn and Joey Gallo, which is quite valuable in OBP formats. Also, third base really stinks in the AL this year after the top two names, so you’re almost certainly speculating on someone.

So the concerns about his ability to hit a fastball were valid. He ranked 15th out of 492 hitters that saw at least 100 fastballs in highest SwStr% against the pitch, and ranked fourth lowest in Contact%. That led to an inflated 35.4% strikeout rate, which was actually higher than all pre-season projections except for THE BAT/THE BAT X. In a batting average league, the strikeouts were a huge red flag. But in Tout Wars’ OBP format, I also cared about his walk rate, which was elite in Japan, and ended up elite in MLB. Even with all the strikeouts pushing his average down to just .207, he still managed a .347 OBP. The strong OBP, along with power that fully translated, resulted in a small profit, even though he missed nearly a month and a half to injury.

Jonathan India managed a sad 58 PA before injury ended his season very early. I then scrambled for a second baseman all season.

Kevin McGonigle was one of my most interesting purchases at the auction, but I definitely did not expect him to end up as my most valuable player. The real key here, besides expecting him to win a starting job out of spring training, was focusing on his strong OBP potential. I knew that provided a downside cushion and could give him the opportunity to hit atop the lineup all season. He contributed across the board, and his 18 homers only required a tiny 7.8% HR/FB rate. There was nothing fluky here.

Yikes, I had rostered Kyle Manzardo because I needed to finish out my offense with more power. Instead, he was a complete bust, but mostly because his strikeout rate surged over 30%, while his FB% declined from extreme to merely above average. I’m not sure he’ll get another chance as a strong side platoon bat.

What’s funny is that Jarren Duran’s fantasy contributions, at least from a power and speed perspective, were mostly normal, though a little light on the runs scored and RBI. It all came down to a cratering of his BABIP to a career worst .252.

I liked Isaac Collins as a cheap all-around little contributor in a more favorable hitting environment in Kansas City than they had been playing in. Instead, his BABIP crumbled and power disappeared, while his stolen base total was cut in half in more PA.

I kept wondering why Chandler Simpson was coming at such a discount in my leagues. I seemingly value these stolen base only guys higher than others, but I actually thought it may have just been an anti-Simpson bias. That wasn’t unreasonable considering he posted just a .296 wOBA in 2025, so he could have easily hit his way out of the lineup. Luckily, that did not happen. He swiped just two more bases than last year in over 150 more PA, but everything else was in line.

I was kind of embarrassed to roster Trent Grisham after his obvious career year in 2025, but I thought he would be better than he ended up being this year. Then again, he still earned a profit despite failing to even clear 20 home runs, which is surprising.

I don’t know why I keep ending up with Nolan Schanuel, and the hoped for power breakout failed to materialize again. Guarantee the season I don’t roster him is the one he clears 20 homers.

Matt Wallner was supposed to be another big power bat to offset Simpson, and was yet another massive disappointment. His strikeout rate ballooned, his FB% collapsed, and he spent the majority of the season at Triple-A, never returning, despite holding onto him all season expecting him to.

Josh Bell is a good example of the boring veteran that goes for cheap because he’s, well, boring, and then earns a nice profit. No one wants to leave the auction with him, but there’s no excuse for a 20-homer every day guy to go for sub-10 units at the auction.

Jeff Hoffman’s season is a perfect example of how silly bullpen roles are and manager’s actions based on tiny samples. I don’t remember the exact day Hoffman lost his job to Louis Varland, but looking at the game logs, it may have been April 21 as the day he was usurped. Through that day, he had recorded just 10.2 innings and posted a 7.59 ERA. Of course, every single one of his ERA estimators were perfectly good and suggested it was just some bad fortune inflating his ERA. Naturally, he then posted a 2.77 ERA the rest of the way. But he never got his closer job back. So a poorly timed string of outings ended up affecting his fantasy value all season, which is where the luck factor plays a role. If this happened in August or the string of outings were more spread apart, he probably would have finished the season with 30+ saves.

Is it finally time to ban Jack Flaherty from my teams? I hit the lottery with him in 2024, but I guess I pushed my luck too far!

I was surprised to roster Nathan Eovaldi coming off a 1.73 ERA in 2025, as I figured he would be overvalued. He wasn’t, but I wish he was, as he posted his highest ERA since a partial 2019 season.

Ranger Suarez would have earned far more than 10 units if the team decided to provide him any sort of run support. How on Earth did he win just eight games with a 3.22 ERA?! That’s another obvious luck element at play, and based on my note above, you understand how clustered the wins category was.

I got one start from Justin Verlander, who I didn’t mean to roster, but got saddled with him after no one outbid my 1 unit nomination.

It just goes to show you how much of a WHIP killer Joey Cantillo was that he posted solid ERA, win, and strikeout marks but still just about broke even for me.

Cody Ponce…sigh.

I was really surprised to win Taj Bradley at auction with my 1 unit nomination, as I was optimistic based on his spring training velocity bump and elite strikeout rate. That velocity bump did carry over, fueling a full strikeout rate rebound and a true breakout.

While Grant Taylor’s usage was bizarre, he ended up being my most profitable pitcher buy, even though he ended up recording just 10 saves.

I’m typically proud of my reserve round picks, or at least I feel like I do a good job when leaving the auction. But this season, they were awful.

I speculated on Jordan Romano and was looking pretty early in the season when he was racking up the saves for the Angels. Then he quickly imploded and eventually landed on the Rockies. Little did I expect him to become their closer after he was long gone from my team.

Alright, so that was a rundown of the team I rostered at the auction. Let’s now switch gears to in-season transactions. I actually didn’t make a trade at all this year. Sometimes I make one, sometimes I don’t. It’s not a very trade happy league and it’s hard in a mono league since you either need depth to trade from or a category imbalance. No one is buying high or selling low.

I’m not especially aggressive with my FAAB. However, I don’t enter the season with the intention of hoarding it so I could get first choice of league crossovers on trade deadline day. Instead, typically there just aren’t any obviously impactful players sitting in the free agent pool worth bidding hundreds on. All the top prospects are rostered during the auction and new starters typically figure to serve as stopgaps until an injured player returns, rather than remain a starter all season.

My first impactful pickup was Troy Melton. I picked him up on May 18, six days before he made his first start. At the time, he was rehabbing and it was unknown when he would debut, so I speculated early that he would be up soon and given my pitching woes, figured he was worth taking a shot on. He limped to the finish line, but still provided me with a sub-3.00 ERA and strong WHIP, even if they were propped by excellent fortune.

My largest FAAB buy excluding the names I bought after the trade deadline was Jacob Gonzalez of the White Sox, at the time. He was enjoying a major breakout at Triple-A and I had hoped that would carry over. It didn’t and he was ultimately sent to the Pirates where he eventually lost his starting job. Luckily, I eventually found myself with some depth and so didn’t need to start him over the last weeks when he barely played.

I thought I made a shrewd move when I bought catcher-qualifying Cooper Ingle on June 15, as he was called up shortly after on June 26. But the team decided 24 PA of poor hitting was enough of a sample size to believe he wasn’t ready and immediately demoted him. He never returned.

Khalil Watson was another Guardians hitter I bought, but this occurred after he was recalled. He swiped nine bases for me…and that was it.

Then there was Tyler Tolbert, who I bought for zero units. I bought him on July 6 as the latest on my second base carousel and he immediately rewarded me with that epic two-game run. He went 5-5 with a homer his first game on my team, and then followed that up by going 5-6 with another home run and a stolen base the next game. Whaaaaaaaaaaaat?! He ultimately stole 12 bases for my team, while recording a .387 OBP. After the number of second basemen I had gone through, it was only a matter of time before someone would step up.

The next impactful name was Hayden Wesneski who was recovering from TJ surgery and expected to eventually join the Astros rotation. Like with Melton, I had nothing to lose by speculating on a guy who could potentially earn positive value given that there’s rarely a starter sitting in the free agent pool, and when there is, you likely don’t want to touch him. I bought him on July 27 for just six units and he debuted two days later. He was excellent for his 11 starts and really helped me when half my starters landed on the IL.

On the same day I bought Wesneski was another proactive speculation — George Lombard Jr. Reading the tea leaves, it seemed pretty obvious that he would be recalled within weeks and take over the starting shortstop job for the Yankees. That’s exactly what happened, as he debuted on August 4 and served as the starter for the rest of the year. He didn’t exactly carry over his strong Triple-A performance, but he was good enough and came in handy to cover for the numerous injuries I encountered late in the year.

I spent the rest of my money after the trade deadline, but my big bids didn’t result in a whole lot of production.

In a mono league that allows you to pick up minor leaguers, reviewing my pickups reinforces the importance of tracking the minors throughout the season. It is far more beneficial to pick up a minor leaguer with a minimal bid whose callup you think might occur over the next couple of weeks than have to compete with your entire league to pick up the same player at 10x-20x the pre-callup price after he’s already been recalled. It takes more effort for the former, of course, but that effort is often handsomely rewarded.

Bottom line is that a killer auction or draft is obviously preferred, but it’s really not actually necessary to win a league. Even a merely above average one could be good enough if combined with strong in-season management, especially if no other team is dominating.