How Efficient Were 2017 Ottoneu Auctions?

Imagine it’s March of 2017 and you’re getting ready for your ottoneu auction in a first year league. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight we know you should target the breakouts of ’17 like Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Cody Bellinger, but is there a macro level strategy that you could have employed to take advantage of the inefficiencies of the auction market? In this post I’m going to examine the average auction values for 30 first year FanGraphs points leagues from ’17, compared to the real value those players provided (based on my retrospective ’17 dollar values).

Up first, let’s take a look at the most valuable players who were not drafted in a single one of those first year auctions (note- AAV is the average auction salary, Value is based on ’17 actual performance, and Delta is the difference between the two):

These are just the top ten undrafted players, all told there were 80 players not drafted in a single league that ended up providing at least $1 in ’17 value, totaling $518 in value that went undrafted. Presumably any of these players could have been won for just $1 at auction, or acquired via 48 hour auctions for $1 or $2 early in the spring. It’s impossible for the auction market to be 100% efficient when it comes to valuing the eventual pool of worthy players, but it’s jarring to see how many really good performances could have been had for nothing.

Up next, a look at the top players who were drafted in those first year auctions, but had an average auction salary of $1 or less:

More of the same on this list, with a total of 85 players and $682 in value that could have been had for a minimum auction bid. Many of these players were only auctioned in 1-3 leagues, making them nearly as “free” as the undrafted players above.

Now, let’s take a look at the players that returned the most value that were auctioned for $2 or more:

This list is comforting in its similarity to the players that attracted the most arbitration this offseason (especially the first five names).

Here’s the flip side of the coin, the drafted players who returned the least value:

Ouch, raise your hand if you owned at least a few of these players last year (I know I did).

Those tables are interesting from a micro/player level, but what if we start to look at them from a macro/position level? First, let’s look at how the undrafted and $1 players broke down by position:

Basically, this table shows how much production/value at each position was undrafted or valued at auction as replacement level ($1).

It’s often discussed among ottoneu owners that it’s relatively easy to find productive relievers cheaply, and this seems to reinforce that idea. I was surprised by how much value was lost at 1B, until I remembered the crazy number of breakouts at the position this year (Zimmerman, Smoak, Morrison, Mancini, Alonso).

Up next, a look at the return on investment by position for those players the ’17 auction market did value as above replacement level ($2+ AAV):