Hot Stove: Seattle Busy (Trumbo, Miley), Alonso to Oakland

Jeff and I will be covering the fantasy implications of the Winter Meetings moves all week long here at Rotographs. Jeff has already done some pieces on earlier signings including his most recent on the huge pitching deals made this weekend. Let’s take a look at the three most recent deals of note, chronologically which happens to put them in order of least-to-most impactful for fantasy purposes, too.

–The Chapman deal isn’t done yet, so I’m holding off, especially since we don’t even have a general idea of the returns for Cincy–

To OAK: Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski

To SD: Drew Pomeranz, Jose Torres, & PTBNL

Primary piece(s): Alonso’s position all but kills him on the fantasy landscape. It’s just so hard to roster a first baseman who has never hit 10 HR in a season. TEN! It’s not even impressive to hit 10 homers as a first baseman, but he can’t even reach that remarkably pedestrian plateau. Sure, he’s only eclipsed 402 PA once in his career, but we’re talking about 10 damn home runs. Since 2013, he has averaged six homers per season and has six total DL stints. Did I mention he doesn’t many homers?

Darkhorse: Alonso is the name among this group, but Pomeranz could be the big return. He did some nice work out of the bullpen last year (2.61 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28% K in 41.3 IP) including a few saves. The Padres just cleared out the backend of their bullpen and while I’d have Brandon Maurer as the favorite to close, Pomeranz could get consideration. He was above average against righties as a reliever with a .690 OPS and 24% K rate, better than the .729/20% averages for lefties versus righties (min. 100 PA). He’s currently the only lefty in the pen, though, so that works against the idea of him getting a shot to close, but stay tuned.

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To BAL: Mark Trumbo, C.J. Riefenhauser

To SEA: Steve Clevenger

Primary piece(s): This is now the third time Trumbo has been traded, second by Jerry DiPoto in fact, but he’s still the draw here. You probably think he was worse than he actually was, too. If you’re not already intimately familiar with his numbers, try to think of what you pictured the second you started reading about him. Did you have him worse than .262/.310/.449 with 22 HR in 549 PA? His 108 wRC+ was actually better than 2013 or 2014, too.

A disastrous June really hampered his bottom line or he might’ve had a season even better than his 2012 (32 HR, 124 wRC+). He hit just .134/.165/.183 in 21 PA. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he was dealt from Arizona to Seattle on June 3rd. It seems he took some time to transition. From July on, he had a .295/.351/.479 line with 12 HR in 285 PA. He actually had an .848 OPS heading into June, too.

His power has always played well regardless of the venue, but heading to Baltimore is a plus. This move doesn’t necessarily eliminate Chris Davis from the discussion as 1B remains open, but Trumbo is insurance in case they do lose him and don’t exactly trust Christian Walker to be the full-time first baseman. With the depth at first base, Trumbo is probably better deployed in the outfield as a power source. He takes a substantial hit in OBP leagues with a career .300 mark.

Darkhorse: None. Clevenger and Riefenhauser aren’t really doin’ anything for me. Clevenger could find a nice chunk playing time since Chris Iannetta is brutal against righties, but Clevenger himself is 30 years old so he’s unlikely to randomly get good.

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To SEA: Wade Miley and Jonathan Aro

To BOS: Roenis Elias and Carson Smith

Primary piece(s): Miley had a rocky transition to the American League with an ERA north of 8.00 by the end of April and still a 5.07 as late as June 11th, but he was solid over the summer with a 4.15 ERA in his final 20 starts. Of course, that’s not particularly useful in fantasy baseball, especially with a modest strikeout rate. And if I’m going to list Miley as a primary piece, I have to include Elias considering the fact that they haven’t been that different over the last two seasons.

Miley has the innings edge, but Elias has the better ERA, WHIP, and K%. Plus, he’s three years younger than Miley, though I don’t think we’re dealing with much upside for either. While Miley is a groundball pitcher, home runs are an issue at times and moving to Safeco Field helps him in that regard. Two really bad starts (7 ER in each in just 7 combined IP) really dented Elias’ bottom line as he made just 20 starts. The biggest hurdle for both in fantasy is the gaudy WHIP totals. Miley has a career 1.33 and Elias is at 1.31. The key difference right now is that Miley will have a role in the rotation while Elias could start the season on the outside. Miley is reserve/streaming fodder for deeper mixed leagues and a fourth-starter type in AL-only leagues, but there’s still a tinge of upside here.

Darkhorse: Even though Smith is known after a stint in the closer’s role last year, he’s the darkhorse candidate for a big payoff here because he’s firmly blocked by Craig Kimbrel right now. As long as Koji Uehara is upright, Smith might not even be the proverbial closer-in-waiting, either. At the same time, we’ve seen depth at a position dry up in a hurry on teams and nothing is more volatile than relief pitching so keep Smith on your radar. He works mid-90s with his sinker and then puts batters away with a devastating slider. He’s a useful $1-3 reliever in AL-only leagues to supplement your primary closer.

Aro shouldn’t be completely forgotten, either. He was unimpressive in a 10-inning debut, but the 25-year old has always handled righties with a 93-95 MPH fastball, solid changeup, and decent slider. It would be a tough climb for him to get a fantasy viable role as Joaquin Benoit now has a clear lead on closing with Smith gone. Tony Zych and Charlie Furbush are a formidable right-left setup combo, too. He can be ignored for now.