Hitters to Target in the Bottom Third

Even if you don’t own a turntable, it’s time to shop for some 33s.

Each Thursday, I’ll be recommending hitters to pick up who are owned in 33 percent of leagues or fewer on CBSSports.com and Fantrax. I’ve chosen to use these sites’ ownership rates as a guide, as they tend to be higher than those on ESPN or Yahoo. If I were to use the latter two sites as a guide for identifying players who are available in at least two-thirds of leagues, in reality, some of those players would be unavailable to many owners who play on CBS and Fantrax.

For the most part, this amounts to a deep-league waiver wire column for hitters, but some of the underowned players featured may be viable in 12-team mixed leagues.

Here are five hitters who are widely available, yet could improve your roster over the coming weeks in a variety of formats.

Note: Ownership percentages are listed in parentheses, with CBS listed first and Fantrax listed second.

Christian Villanueva, 3B, Padres (11/6): I’m regretting not having drafted Villanueva in some of my deeper leagues, but it’s not because he splurged for three homers on Tuesday against the Rockies. (Well, maybe it’s a little bit because of that.) In the minors, he has had a steady history of strong flyball tendencies, outrageous pulled flyball rates and decent plate discipline. Essentially, he has been Ryan Schimpf, but without quite so many strikeouts. After missing 2016 — his final year in the Cubs’ system — with a fractured right fibula, he blossomed last year in what was his third tour of the Pacific Coast League, posting a .231 Iso and a .369 OBP.

Though I thought about taking a flier on Villanueva in some drafts, I just didn’t see where the playing time would come from with Chase Headley and Cory Spangenberg already on the Padres’ roster. Yet Villanueva has started three of the Padres’ six games to date, and Andy Green implied that he will get a chance to play with some regularity. He is worth rostering in mixed leagues with at least 15 teams with the potential for an even broader fantasy impact depending on future playing time.

Eduardo Escobar, 3B/SS, Twins (27/31): Escobar enjoyed a modest power breakout in 2017, bashing a career-high 21 home runs, and he did it without dramatically increasing his launch angle. He simply hit with more thump, increasing his average flyball distance from 295 feet in 2016 to 320 feet, and boosting his exit velocity from 85.3 to 86.4 mph (per Baseball Savant). Escobar may also be due for some improvement on last year’s .254 Avg, as he inexplicably hit just .063 on dribblers, when his xAvg on those batted balls was .162, according to xStats.

As Jorge Polanco’s replacement for the first 80 games of the season, playing time won’t be an issue for Escobar, and in that time, he could deliver double-digit homers with an Avg in the .260s. If Zack Cozart can be close to universally owned, it would seem, at minimum, that Escobar deserves more of a chance in mixed leagues with at least 14 teams.

Manny Pina, C, Brewers (21/21): As weak as the catcher crop is this season, any backstop who has some power, a decent batting average and a path to close-to-regular playing time should be highly valued. Pina fits this description, yet he is widely available. Last season, he had a 7.2 percent Value Hit rate on xStats, as compared to the major league average of 6.0 percent, and he struck out at a respectable 22.0 percent rate. Though Pina likely overachieved with a .339 BABIP, he doesn’t profile as someone who would be a subpar hitter on balls in play. He has also started five of the Brewers’ six games, and while he may play less frequently when Stephen Vogt (shoulder) returns, he should still be the Brewers’ primary catcher. More to the point, Vogt’s return appears to be several weeks away.

Pina is clearly underowned even in deeper formats. With Salvador Perez, J.T. Realmuto and Mike Zunino all shelved with injuries, he is currently worth a look, even in 12-team mixed leagues.

Nick Ahmed, SS, Diamondbacks (19/32): Don’t add Ahmed because he has started out the season 8 for 17. He should be owned in more deep leagues, though, because of what he did last year before his season ended due to a fractured right hand. Like Escobar, Ahmed hit for distinctly more power in 2017, with his year-to-year average flyball distance increasing from 309 to 326 feet and his Iso settling in at a career-high .168. While the Chase Field humidor is a concern, it may not impact Ahmed much, if at all, as his home Iso last season was only five points higher than his road Iso.

Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF, Nationals (8/17): If batting average and a handful of steals are what you need, Kendrick can help, and he is almost certainly available. His all-fields approach and aversion to popups makes him a BABIP master, and he can be counted on to bat at least .290 overall. While he is ostensibly in a second base timeshare with Wilmer Difo while Daniel Murphy is out (he has started four of the Nationals’ seven games there), Kendrick also started in left field in place of Adam Eaton for the lone game in which the team faced a left-handed starting pitcher. He may not play quite enough for owners in 14-team mixed leagues, but he should be owned in any format that is deeper than that.