Hitters in the Top Home Run Parks This Week
With just two more weeks of regular season action, it’s worth doing the research to benefit from every possible advantage. So today, I’ll focus on hitters playing in the top home run parks in baseball this week. Taking advantage of park factors on a weekly basis always makes sense. However, I typically limit my research to Coors Field, as that’s consistently the most favorable hitting environment in baseball, or at least close to it when it fails to top the leaderboard. As usual, I’ll limit the names to those that are lesser owned (less than 50% owned in CBS leagues).
I’ll begin with the top two right-handed home run parks and then follow with the top two left-handed home run parks. However, the team that plays in the second best park for left-handed home runs this year is on the road all week (Phillies) and the next best park is Coors Field, which I covered last week. So I’ll keep it to just the one park for lefties.
Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) | 159 RHH HR Factor
Phillies RHH (3 games)
Did you realize that Bader is actually enjoying the best offensive year of his career? It hasn’t even been particularly close, as his 131 wRC+ is significantly higher than his previous career best of 108 over a reasonable sample. He’s doing this despite a spike in strikeout rate and his lowest FB% since 2018.
He has posted a career best 16% HR/FB rate, backed by a career high HardHit%, the second highest maxEV he has recorded in a season, and his second double digit Barrel%. Perhaps he’s selling out a bit for power given the increased SwStk% as well, but it’s clearly worked. Of course, his results have been seriously boosted by a .372 BABIP, and his xwOBA is well below his actual, though even the xwOBA is his highest over a full season. He makes for a nice play this week, as you might even get a steal or two as well.
Kemp earned his MLB debut earlier this season after a huge Triple-A performance, where he posted a .431 wOBA and .261 ISO. That performance hasn’t exactly translated to the Majors, but he has been acceptable. The power, though, has seemingly been there, as he sports a mid-40% HardHit%, a maxEV just over 111 MPH, and a double digit Barrel%. I would actually expect that to result in higher than a 14% HR/FB rate and .166 ISO.
The swings and misses have been an issue but I think there’s definitely more power in his bat. In a deep league, he’s a pretty good speculation if you’re in need of a homer or two.
Taking over for an injured Trea Turner, Sosa has been league averageish at the plate for the past two seasons. He’s got a bit of pop and has improved his strikeout rate each season since 2022, while significantly cutting down on his swings and misses this year.
We used to count on him for a handful of stolen bases as well, but he’s swiped just one in two attempts this year, so it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll even attempt another by the end of the season. For now, you get a decent power guy for a shortstop in a strong lineup and top home run park for three games.
Giants RHH (4 games)
The injury to Dominic Smith vaults Flores back into the starting lineup, as he had fallen back into a short-side platoon role. You may remember how hot Flores opened the season, swatting six home runs in his first 14 games for a 31.6% HR/FB rate. In 104 games since, he has hit nine additional home runs and posted a 7.1% HR/FB rate. That’s what regression looks like!
Anyhow, he’s not either of those players, but somewhere in the middle (but closer to the 7.1% guy, of course). Interestingly, his power output comes mostly from his mid-40% FB%, as his Statcast metrics are weak and barely even support a double digit HR/FB rate. Still, you want a guy putting lots of balls in the air to potentially take advantage of the hitter friendly venue for four games, and Flores is one of such men that could do so.
I didn’t realize that Schmitt had accrued over 300 PAs already this season, as I just assumed he’s been up and down from the minors, merely filling in here and there. Instead, he’s a starter and although he has posted just a .304 wOBA, he sports a much more respectable .332 xwOBA.
Schmitt has shown pretty solid metrics that drive power output — a 40%+ FB%, HardHit% over 40%, maxEV over 110 MPH, and Barrel% in the high single digits. It has only resulted in an 11.5% HR/FB rate and .157 ISO, but those metrics point to better.
The problem here is he hasn’t even attempted a steal since 2023 and has consistently posted below average BABIP marks, so he’s not a batting average asset. That means you’re just hoping he knocks a homer or two because he can’t be counted on to contribute anywhere else.
George M. Steinbrenner Field (Rays) | 136 RHH HR Factor
Rays RHH (7 games)
Williams was the Rays top prospect, ranked 14th overall and got the call after posting a 26.4% HR/FB rate and .234 ISO at Triple-A this year. That output wasn’t exactly backed by his HardHit%, though his maxEV was a bit more impressive.
So far, things haven’t gone well in 65 MLB PAs. Predictably, strikeouts have been a major problem, carrying over from his Triple-A time when he posted a 34.1% strikeout rate, driven by a high teens SwStk%. Those issues have gotten even worse in the Majors, leaving him with just a .164 batting average. But, the power has been there, particularly the home run power.
Despite the penchant for swinging and missing, he has managed to hit three home runs for a 37.5% HR/FB rate, though his HardHit% and maxEV marks are quite unimpressive. Still, he’s the type to speculate on this week just for the shot at a homer or two.
Blue Jays RHH (4 games)
Schneider has recently become the Jays’ regular left fielder, as he has hit pretty darn well over his 196 PAs. They key here is a massive 55.9% FB%, which would rank second in baseball behind only Cal Raleigh if he qualified for the leaderboard. All those fly balls, combined with a high-teen HR/FB rate, have put him on a 30-home run pace over a full season.
The odd thing here is that he has somehow managed to posted an elite Barrel%, despite a mediocre maxEV. He has actually paired strong Barrel% marks with middling maxEV marks the previous two seasons as well, so this is clearly a thing for him. You don’t typically see the two so far apart, so I wonder how long he could barrel his balls at such a rate without even hitting a ball 110 MPH.
With his mid-teens walk rate, he gains significant value in OBP leagues. Of course, over a tiny sample, his batting average could fall anywhere, so you’re rostering him in the hopes of a homer or two.
Okay, so no one is owning Clement for his power. He’s hit just nine home runs, after 12 last year in nearly 100 fewer PAs, and his HR/FB rate sits at just 4.8%. But if there was anywhere that could boost his potential for a home run, it’s Tampa Bay!
Benefiting Clement is a low strikeout rate just barely into double digits, along with a flyball tendency, though that’s really odd for someone with such limited power. He would probably end up as a better offensive contributor if he became more of a groundball hitter, but who he is now makes him a candidate to benefit from the favorable home run conditions early this week.
Red Sox RHH (3 games)
Gonzalez has broken out of his short side platoon role to play every day, as he has posted an apparently acceptable enough .305 wOBA against right-handed pitchers (though that pales in comparison to the .427 mark against lefties).
He’s got some serious pop that I’m frankly shocked to see. His 57.3% HardHit% would rank third in baseball if he kept it up long enough and made the qualified leaderboard. He has also posted another maxEV over 112 MPH and a double digit Barrel%.
Unfortunately, he’s done the opposite of some of the names above — hit too many groundballs, meaning his power hasn’t been fully taken advantage of. A sub-30% FB% for the second season in a row has capped his home run potential, which is a shame because these metrics should be pushing his ISO well over .200. Perhaps the favorable home run environment in Tampa will encourage him to lift the ball more.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Orioles) | 145 LHH HR Factor
Orioles LHH (4 games)
The Orioles’ sixth ranked prospect, Beavers has been moved up to the two-hole in the order as he has posted a strong .379 wOBA over his first 92 MLB PAs. Though he doubled his HR/FB rate at Triple-A this year with a career best 17.5% mark, that power hasn’t translated yet to the Majors.
He has hit just one home run and posted a 5% HR/FB rate, while his Statcast metrics have been unimpressive. His scouting grades suggest a hitter with limited power, so was his Triple-A performance more fluky than real? I think he certainly owns more power than this and since he has posted a FB% over 40%, he could really benefit from a surge in HR/FB rate.
At the very least, this is quite an exciting skill set with a walk rate over 20%(!) and a fascinating batted ball profile, heavy on both line drives and fly balls. That might be the rare distribution that benefits both BABIP and power.
It took a while, but Basallo, the team’s top prospect and ranked third overall, finally did receive a promotion about a month ago after posting a .413 wOBA and .319 ISO at Triple-A. Unfortunately, the results haven’t been there yet in 84 PAs, but I would argue that the underlying skills have been encouraging.
Hitting just .179 might make you assume he has been striking out like crazy. That has not been the case. His 23.8% mark is essentially the same as his Triple-A mark. His power has plummeted, but his HardHit% of 44.8% is excellent, his maxEV is just over 112 MPH and his Barrel% of 8.6% is fine, though a bit disappointing. Clearly, he’s deserving right now of a higher HR/FB rate and ISO, but I would expect a higher Barrel% in the future as well.
Right now, he’s suffering a bit from a low LD%, but that should correct, and the fact he’s hitting fly balls, but not pop-ups is also a good sign. Overall, there’s no reason to become discouraged here, and if anything, a cold finish should make him even cheaper in drafts next year.
After a nice fantasy performance during his first full year last season, Cowser has battled injuries this year, but has mostly been the same hitter. He’s walked a bit less, struck out a bit more, and his BABIP has plummeted. But his SwStk% has only increased marginally, his FB% is identical, while his Statcast metrics are similar as well.
He must have spread the no line drives virus to Basallo, as his low LD% has definitely contributed to his BABIP decline, even as his IFFB% remains tiny. The good news is he has offset the drop in batting average by stealing one more base in 240 fewer PAs and he hasn’t even been caught once. It makes him a pretty exciting power/speed combo. Of course, the batting average is going to remain a negative for as long as he’s striking out at least 30% of the time.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.