Hitters in the Top Home Run Parks Next Week
Yesterday, in an attempt to benefit from every possible advantage as the regular seasons comes to a close, I reviewed a slew of hitters whose teams will be playing in the top home run parks in baseball this week. Let’s now look toward next week so you have some time to plan your roster. Park factors are this year only.
Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) | 123 RHH HR Factor
Blue Jays RHH (6 games)
Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement were discussed in yesterday’s post. The fact that they will also be playing a full week homestand in another home run friendly venue makes them even better names to roster beginning this week.
Red Sox RHH (3 games)
Romy Gonzalez was also discussed yesterday. He’s significantly better against left-handed starters, so he makes for a much better starter if he’s set to face a handful of them, instead of a slate of right-handers.
Rays (3 games)
Carson Williams mas also mentioned yesterday. With 60/70 Field scores and considered a future Gold Glover, his defense should keep him in the lineup, though it’s anyone’s guess how high a strikeout rate the Rays will be willing to live with.
Great American Ball Park (Reds) | 123 RHH HR Factor
Reds RHH (3 games)
There’s some good and some bad for Hays during his first season with the Reds. First, let’s start with the good. His walk rate is at its highest career mark, while his HR/FB rate has spiked to a career best as well, driven by his first double digit Barrel%. Surprisingly, he has actually posted a higher HR/FB rate on the road that at home run friendly GABP!
On the downside, his SwStk% has risen for the fourth straight year, while his strikeout rate is at a career worst. His FB% has also dipped to its lowest since the small sample 2020. So the increased HR/FB rate is being hampered by fewer balls in play, and of those, fewer of them in the air.
That said, he’s still on pace to be a 20+ homer guy given full season PAs and even with double digit steals. Batting cleanup, which he’s now done for seven straight games helps his RBI total as well.
I discussed Stewart two weeks ago as part of a recent callups article. I came away pretty excited about his fantasy potential, though it wasn’t clear how much he would play. Since his recall, he hasn’t exactly been an everyday guy, but he has started in three straight now and five of the last six.
It’s only been 32 PAs so far, but he’s already showing the type of power that excited me at Triple-A. His HardHit% is 45.8%, he has already hit a ball 111.7 MPH, and his Barrel% sits at 12.5%. The two rates are obviously prone to small sample inflation, but so far, so good.
I bet he ends up becoming a trendy sleeper next year, but the Reds always seem to be overflowing with players, so it’s anyone’s guess how their roster shakes out. This is one of the few guys between these two posts that I like regardless of which parks they happen to be playing at in a given week.
Our first catcher?! Stephenson has missed time to injury, so he’s been limited to just 311 PAs. His strikeout rate has also surged over 30%, which is odd for him and even more surprising given the much more respectable 11.9% SwStk%.
Everything else looks good here though. His HardHit% is at a career best, while his Barrel% has jumped into double digits for the first time. It’s odd to see these two marks notch career bests when his maxEV has dipped to essentially league average, but he’s always shown mid-double digit HR/FB rate skills. He’s a perfect add if you need a catcher for a week.
Perhaps finally getting out of PNC Park, the worst home run park for right-handed hitters in baseball this year, for the league’s fourth best, is the solution to Hayes’ lack of power output. Already while with the Reds, he has posted worse Statcast metrics, and yet has nearly quadrupled his HR/FB rate, so perhaps this is it!
He’s been weird, as his HardHit% has been consistently over 40%, his maxEV has typically been above 110 MPH, except this season, but his Barrel% marks have been weak. That’s the type of guy I love speculating on to enjoy a power breakout, but we just keep waiting. Still, he’s in a much better position now to experience one, but his playing time might not be as assured given the poor wOBA marks.
He’s worth an add, but mostly if you need steals.
Pirates RHH (3 games)
Despite recording just a .324 OBP and .305 wOBA, Triolo has become the Pirates’ leadoff man. There’s a reason why this team is last in runs scored! He’s really not that different than Hayes from an output perspective, but hasn’t posted Statcast metrics as strong.
The dramatically improved strikeout rate is good progress, but the weak power, plus poor BABIP marks make it really difficult for him to contribute much at the plate. He’ll earn more PAs now batting atop the order and like Hayes, could steal a base or two before the season ends. He’s clearly not someone to count on for home runs though.
Meet your Pirates cleanup hitter! Incredibly, this is Pham’s ninth team since 2021! That’s pretty crazy. He has only been an above average hitter twice since 2019 and he has been quite poor defensively, so it’s a wonder how he continues to find starting jobs.
This season, most of the skills have remained intact, though his HR/FB rate has failed to rebound after last year’s decline. Like Hayes, his problem has been a low Barrel%, as his HardHit% and maxEV continue to look good. That gives me a bit of hope that his power hasn’t completely disappeared.
Sadly, his speed has disappeared, as he has a combined 12 steals in the past two seasons after 22 swipes just in 2023 alone. In a deep league, I’d still gamble on a middle of the order hitter in a hitter friendly venue.
Yet another Pirates hitter whose power has disappointed. Remember this when you’re considering a Pirates righty, home runs are difficult to come by at their home park!
Gonzales has shown pretty decent skills all around, but with no speed, he really needs to hit for more power to become fantasy relevant. The Statcast metrics here are at least league average, except for his Barrel%, which was much better last year.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Reds) | 145 LHH HR Factor
Orioles LHH (3 games)
I covered Orioles lefties yesterday as well, including Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, and Colton Cowser. They will be playing a total of seven home games over the final two weeks, which make them pretty good plays. Of course, the latter two could be rested against left-handers, though as I type this, I see they are actually in the lineup against a left-handed starter, so perhaps they aren’t in strict platoons, making them even better starts.
Rays LHH (3 games)
Rays hitters fall into two categories — either heavily owned or more lightly owned, but isn’t considered a regular since the team platoons so much and also rotates hitters around enough outside of strict platoons.
Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) | 144 LHH HR Factor
Phillies LHH (6 games)
This is a good week for Phillies lefties given a full week homestand. Marsh might not be in a platoon, as he has started against the last two left-handed starters. With a career best strikeout rate, this could have been a big year for him, but his walk rate has slipped, along with his ISO and HR/FB rate.
Really though, it’s just a drop in Barrel% (this seems to be a theme today) that has caused the drop in power as the rest of his Statcast metrics look good. I feel like this skill set should really be capable of better, which is likely what the scouts thought too considering he was once the 11th best prospect in baseball.
Having seemingly broken out of a strict platoon, he’s an ideal guy to pick up for his home games, as he has posted a 16.4% HR/FB rate at home since 2023, versus just an 11.2% mark on the road.
It’s pretty incredible that Kepler hasn’t reached 500 PAs since 2019, but unlike Marsh, he remains in a strict platoon, sitting against left-handed starters. So you’ll want to make sure you check who he the team is expected to face before committing to him as a starter for the week.
You would think that moving for a middling home run park for lefties to the best over the past three seasons would be a boon for his power. And while it has rebounded from last year’s low, his HR/FB rate and ISO remains below his career averages. Of course, the park isn’t to blame. In fact, he has loved hitting at home, where he has posted a 16.9% HR/FB rate. The problem has been on the road, where he has posted just a 6% HR/FB rate.
So it’s a good thing he’ll be playing all week at home! When you combine his better than average strikeout rate with the home HR/FB rate, you get a guy who is worth a lot more during homestands.
Marlins LHH (3 games)
Johnston is an unheralded 28-year-old, but has held his own as he has received strong side platoon PAs. He has posted a 40%+ HardHit% and double digit Barrel%, though it’s hard to see that sustainable given the lackluster 106.1 MPH maxEV.
One of the appealing skills here was his speed. He stole 31 bases in just 84 games at Triple-A, though he’s swiped just two in four attempts with the Marlins so far. Still, that would put him on a pace of around 20+ home runs and 10+ steals, with the possibility of more steals given his history.
Given the park and his upside for both homers and steals, he’s worth a shot over the final week.
Victor Mesa Jr.
Like Johnston, Mesa is stuck in a strong side platoon role, but also owns some power and speed, though not as much in the latter. We don’t have a large enough sample size in the minors of him hitting well, so it’s anyone’s guess whether he’s actually a long-term regular.
However, I like the low strikeout rate, even though I can’t imagine it’s sustainable given the SwStk% marks in the past. The hope here though is that his Triple-A breakout was real and suggests a deeper league fantasy contributor.
Twins LHH (3 games)
Larnach has come a long way from his 30%+ strikeout days from 2021 to 2023. It’s pretty amazing that he’s gotten that mark down to just 20.8% this year, while his walk rate has remained relatively stable. Of course, he may have given up some power, as his HR/FB rate is at a career low, while his ISO is at its lowest since his 2021 debut.
His HardHit% remains stable, but his maxEV is at its lowest, as is his Barrel%, which has dipped back into single digits after three straight above 10%. In fact, it’s around league average now which is really surprising to see.
He obviously still owns above average power so three games in Philly could be a nice trip. As usual with lefties, check the opposing starters as the Phillies have a number of southpaws in their rotation.
Though he’s a lefty, Wallner has been getting random days off against right-handers and actually started against a lefty last night. So he could be a tough start if you’re not totally sure when he’ll be in the lineup.
Wallner has improved his strikeout rate, bringing it below 30%, though his SwStk% remains just above his career average. He also continues to hit a high rate of fly balls, increasing that mark even higher. His BABIP has finally taken a hit as a result of those fly ball ways, as it has dropped dramatically to just .230 from three straight marks well over .300.
The power is still big here, though the Statcast metrics have been a bit less impressive than in 2023 and 2024. Still, he has posted a HR/FB rate over 20% yet again. This is the type you want to take advantage of a home run friendly venue — lots of fly balls and a high rate of those flies leaving the park.
When Lee was recalled last year to make his MLB debut, I was very down on his power potential. Despite posting a 29.6% HR/FB rate at Triple-A last year and mid-teen marks historically, the Statcast metrics were far less impressive and matched closer to league average power, at best. Sure enough, he posted just a 5.4% HR/FB rate in his MLB debut last year, and while that has improved this year, it’s still in single digits at just 9.9%.
I am more optimistic given the jump in HardHit% and maxEV, which looks like he could get to league average power, though he’ll need to raise that weak Barrel% to do so. I like the low strikeout rate, though it’s not due to his contact skills, but mostly due to his low walk rate.
Since he doesn’t have much speed, I’m not very enthusiastic about his future fantasy prospects, but in a deep league, he’s a decent start next week while in Philadelphia.
Would you believe that Clemens is on a 33 home run pace over 600 PAs?! A high FB% along with a career best HR/FB rate spiking into the high teens has pushed up his total. It has also helped increase his wOBA for the third straight season.
Clemens owns some pretty impressive Statcast metrics, with a 49.1% HardHit% and 12.4% Barrel%, though the 109.8 MPH maxEV is a bit less impressive. He does it all this with a strikeout rate barely worse than league average and a SwStk% just into double digits. If only his BABIP didn’t freefall to .225, this would be a darn good season.
It’s surprising Clemens is already 29 years old, so I’m not sure how much better it could get from here, but his ability to play multiple positions could keep him on the field somewhere. It also gives his fantasy owners tons of flexibility.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.