Hitter xwOBA Overperformers — Through May 28, 2023

Last week, I reviewed the latest group of xwOBA underperformers. Let’s now shift to the overperformers. The knee-jerk reaction to this group is that if they fail to improve their underlying skills the rest of the way, their wOBA is in danger of tumbling. However, some guys have consistently overperformed their xwOBA marks throughout their careers, suggesting they are doing something not being captured by the equation. So I’ll check in on each player’s history as well to determine if this might be the case for any of these names.

Man, what’s in the water in Tampa?! The Rays lead baseball in wOBA…by far. Isaac Paredes is one of the reasons the team has performed so well, but Statcast thinks his results are mostly the product of good luck, rather than any sort of improvement in talent. Though he’s batting .282 driven by a reasonable looking .309 BABIP, Statcast calculates just a .227 xBA! He has always finished just around Statcast’s xBA, so this ain’t a case of Paredes doing something not being captured. On the other hand, he is also overperforming his xSLG, suggesting that even his 14% HR/FB rate and .209 ISO are fortunate. With a maxEV of just 106.2 MPH and Barrel% only 3.1%, I think the Statcast calculations makes total sense. However, he also overperformed his xSLG handily last year too, but the sample size is small enough that we can’t be sure he has some sort of hidden power skill not being captured by Statcast. The problem here is that he already doesn’t start every day, so if he slumps towards his xwOBA, his playing time is going to really be cut.

One glance at Brandon Marsh’s .396 BABIP tells us that of course he must be lucky so far, as no one owns a true talent BABIP level that high! Statcast calculates an xBA of just .217 versus his .273 actual mark, so balls are clearly dropping in far more frequently than you’d expect. Unlike for Paredes above, it’s less obvious how Marsh has significantly overperformed his xSLG, as his maxEV and Barrel% are fine enough. Personally, I feel like his power level should healthily outperform his RoS projections and remain well above his xSLG, but, there’s little chance he could maintain a BABIP this high. With a strikeout rate over 30%, that means great risk of a really bad batting average moving forward, though he has always posted strong BABIP marks and does have a pretty good batted ball profile.

Thairo Estrada recently hit the IL with a wrist injury, and you never know how that could affect performance moving forward. Most of his xwOBA overperformance was driven by his .371 BABIP, though he has definitely improved his batted ball profile compared to last season. Despite a maxEV just over 100 MPH, he still doesn’t barrel the ball very often, so his power could be at risk, especially coming back from that wrist issue. Unfortunately, all his owners could do now is patiently await his return as his trade value has plummeted.

Sadly, Elias Díaz is one of the few things that have gone right for my LABR mixed team this year. The big driver of his overperformance is very clearly the .374 BABIP. It hasn’t been a Coors Field thing though, as while his home BABIP is higher, his road mark is still at an inflated .353. He’s been otherworldly at home with a .441 wOBA, but perfectly acceptable on the road with a .321 wOBA. He only marginally overperformed his xwOBA over the last two seasons with the Rockies, so you can’t just point to Coors and call it a day. While I’m fully expecting regression to come, there’s not a whole lot owners could do as the likelihood is you would need to get another catcher back in return as part of a trade.

With a .336 BABIP, .201 ISO, and 10.8% HR/FB, it doesn’t seem obvious that Spencer Steer would be such an xwOBA overperformer. But Statcast calculates that his BABIP is a mirage and is deserving of a .240 average, rather than a .284 mark. As a fly ball hitter with a high IFFB%, the batted ball profile definitely does not support a BABIP significantly higher than the league average. However, while I would expect his BABIP to fall and take his batting average down with it, I would think there’s upside in his HR/FB rate. It still makes him a replacement level option in shallow mixed leagues, but the shape of his performance might change over the rest of the way.

Finally, a veteran name with a long history of performance, Marcus Semien has posted his highest BABIP since his tiny sample debut in 2013. With just a .289 career mark, he has struggled to post even a league average BABIP and last posted a mark of .300 or above all the way back in 2017. He has very slightly overperformed his xBA throughout his career, but never by this sizeable a gap. He is also overperforming his xSLG, but that’s also something he has done every single season of his career. Again though, this is the most he has overperformed his xSLG, though he did come close in 2021 with the Blue Jays. So it’s clear he’s doing something that’s missed by Statcast, but I’d still expect his BABIP and batting average to fall over the rest of the season. With just a 10.5% HR/FB rate, I don’t think there’s any additional HR/FB rate downside though.