Hitter xwOBA Overperformers — Through Apr 18, 2023

Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks so far, which included a number of names that would make for good trade targets. Today, let’s flip over to the overperformers. I hesitate to make a blanket statement that these guys should be sold high if possible, as each deserves their own evaluation. So let’s dive in.

Well duh, of course Luis Arraez and his 0.488 is overperforming! While his ISO is sitting at a career high, despite significant declines in both HardHit% and maxEV, the obvious driver of the overperformance is the .481 BABIP. He does own a pristine batted ball profile, high on line drives and low on pop-ups, but no one is this good! The trouble with hitters like Arraez in fantasy leagues is that with little power and almost no speed, batting average is almost entirely driving their value. If/when their BABIP falls back to Earth, they are barely contributing positive value. It’s pretty crazy that even with a .508 OBP, he has only scored seven runs, putting him on a pace of around 70 over a full season. Arraez should continue to do what was expected of him heading into the season, but if you can somehow convince a leaguemate in need of batting average to overpay for him compared to his draft day cost, take full advantage!

This isn’t a Coors Field thing, as Elias Díaz has called it home since 2020 and hasn’t consistently overperformed his xwOBA, especially not to this degree. The power so far looks fairly legit, but of course the .415 BABIP sticks out like a sore thumb. What’s even crazier is that he has posted just an 11.6% LD%, making it really difficult to believe how he’s gotten so many hits to fall in! Compared to last year, a bunch of his line drives have become grounders, and that’s the extend of his batted ball changes. I would be very surprising if any fantasy owner buys high here, but you never know, as there’s always someone desperate for a decent catcher. Of course, trading one away likely means you’ll be in the market for a catcher yourself, unless you’ve stockpiled an extra on your bench for some reason. In that case, perhaps target MJ Melendez, who I highlighted yesterday as an underperformer.

A skyhigh strikeout rate hampered Brandon Marsh’s production last year, but an absurd .515 BABIP is all he has needed this year to offset all those strikeouts. I am buying increased power, though his home run potential is limited by his low FB%. And although he has always posted high BABIP marks everywhere he has played, no one is good enough to post a mark over .500! With only two homers and one steal, I would also be surprised here if someone was really willing to pay enough to make it worth bothering to trade him, but he was a former top prospect, so maybe such leaguemates do exist. I would be more excited here if he stole more bases. He does get a bump in OBP leagues, so keep that in mind if you play in one.

It’s funny to see Nick Castellanos’s name here, as he had underperformed his xwOBA every season from 2015 to 2020. The gap finally narrowed when he moved to the more hitter friendly GABP in Cinci, but this has been a bizarre start to his season. His walk rate has more than doubled, and hit double digits for the first time. That’s good. However, his strikeout rate has also skyrocketed above 30% for the first time, as his SwStk% continues inching higher. He has suddenly become an extreme ground ball hitter and has hit a high rate of pop-ups, something that was unheard of for him before last year. His HardHit% and Barrel% both sit at career lows and he has yet to homer. Meanwhile, a .476 BABIP is keeping him afloat, otherwise his results would be looking miserable. I really don’t know what happened here as it was reasonable to expect a rebound in power after last year’s downturn. But given the wacky metrics he has posted so far, even over a relatively small sample, I’m no longer thinking a rebound is likely. Something appears seriously wrong and I would love to understand the underlying driver.

T.J. Friedl has been a pleasant surprise so far, hitting a couple of homers and hitting over .300. He has yet to attempt a steal though, despite the promise of stolen bases being part of his projected value. While Statcast thinks he is certainly overperforming given his .364 BABIP, the power output is also dramatically above expectations, given his batted balls. You don’t often see a 15.4% HR/FB rate or ISO over .200 with such a lowly HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel%. Last year, he posted a single digit HR/FB rate with much better power metrics. So far, his strong start has likely gotten him picked up in many leagues, especially shallow mixed formats where he went undrafted. A regression toward his xwOBA would mean he is probably back to being replacement level in such formats and he could get dropped in the lineup as well.

Bryson Stott has enjoyed excellent results to open the year, good enough to move him up to the top of the Phillies lineup. Unfortunately, it’s completely BABIP-driven. While he owns a better than league average IFFB%, everything else in his batted ball profile is fairly standard, so there’s no chance he maintains a .400+ BABIP, or even a mark significantly above the league average. Somehow, he’s managed to walk just once all season in 81 plate appearances, for a puny 1.2% walk rate, so as soon as his BABIP plummets, his OBP will too, cutting down on both his stolen base and runs scored opportunities. It’s funny that a manager can’t see past the high BABIP and would install a guy with a 1.2% walk rate at the top of the lineup. Stott has shown power in the minors, but it hasn’t appeared yet in the Majors. His maxEV is weak and 1.6% Barrel% microscopic. Without power, and the expectation of a falling BABIP hampering his steal attempts and likely pushing him back down in the order, he’s a prime candidate to seek out a sell high.