Hitter SwStk% Improvers — Through Apr 11, 2023

With only around 7% of the season in the books, it’s still far too early to evaluate the majority of performance metrics. But we still want to analyze something, so let’s review the hitter SwStk% improvers versus last year. I chose SwStk% instead of strikeout rate, as the former has a 0.76 correlation with the latter from 2018 to 2022. There’s less noise in SwStk% than strikeout rate, so it’s a better skill metric to evaluate this early, rather than an outcome statistic. Remember, the sample sizes here are small and contact ability could fluctuate throughout the season. But hitters improve their strikeout rates all the time, which could lead to a breakout given the additional balls in play. Cutting down on swings and misses could be an early sign that such improvement will either continue or occur soon.

I decided to filter the list to arbitrarily require a minimum of 200 PAs in 2022 and 30 PAs this year.

This is good, the list includes both high strikeout guys last year and some interesting names.

With the number of injuries the Twins offense has endured (four of their regular starters are now on the IL!), Nick Gordon has gotten an extended opportunity to play semi-regularly. At one time many years ago, Gordon was the Twins top prospect. While he has disappointed with the bat, he’s still attractive in fantasy leagues for his speed and touch of power. He has never posted a single digit SwStk% during any professional stop, his best coming during a small 77 PA sample at Triple-A in 2021 when he finished at 10.1%. In 31 PAs this season, he has yet to strike out, though he has also continued his allergy to taking a base on balls.

It’s anyone’s guess if this improved contact ability is here to stay or a small sample fluke and since the results haven’t been there yet, he’ll likely lose significant playing time as the offense gets healthy. Pray his luck turns around quick for any chance to keep most of his playing time, especially when Jorge Polanco returns.

It’s not often a 36-year-old suddenly improved his SwStk% and strikeout rate to the best of his career, but Martin Maldonado is on a nice little streak. As a catcher who does possess power, but has struggled with his BABIP nearly his entire career, an improved ability to make contact would be huge for both the Astros and his few fantasy owners.

Geez, it’s too bad that Adam Duvall got hurt and will miss a significant chunk of time, as he was on an epic tear. At 34, you don’t expect a player to maintain a power surge and massive contact improvement, so this was probably just a hot streak. But who knows. He has never posted a SwStk% better than his current career best of 11.6% back in 2017 and has struck out over 30% in three of the last four seasons. As a power hitter who hits a ton of fly balls with a low BABIP, he would massively benefit from a reduced strikeout rate, especially if he’s not trading improved contact for worse power. You never know how a wrist injury is going to affect a hitter, so it was really unfortunate timing.

It’s not often that you see a prospect for prospect trade, but that’s what happened last year when the Phillies acquired Brandon Marsh. Despite posting single digit SwStk% marks most of the time during his minor league career, he struggled to make contact in the Majors and posted strikeout rates over 34% in each of his first two seasons. This year, it’s possible that his minor league skills are finally carrying over, as his walk rate has increased and he’s making contact much closer to his levels in the minors. Though owning a player who sits against lefties is annoying, I’m bullish on Marsh.

Salvador Perez used to make excellent contact, as he had posted single digit SwStk% during his first five seasons, with a strikeout rate never exceeding 14.8%. That contact ability has eroded since, as his SwStk% has been on the rise, first into the low single digits, then into the mid-to-high teens. His strikeout rate too has risen from the high teens and low 20% range into the mid-20% range. A return to his mid-teen or better strikeout rate, while holding onto his increased power, would do even more wonders for his fantasy value. It’s too bad he has such a weak supporting cast, so his RBI and runs scored numbers still won’t be all that impressive.

I was quite bearish on Xander Bogaerts’ move out of Fenway Park, yet somehow managed to roster him in one of my three leagues, because everyone does have a price I’m willing to buy at. So far, all he’s done is post a .556 wOBA at home with a .375 BABIP and 27.3% HR/FB rate. None of those numbers are going to last, but the fact that his walk rate is sitting at a career best in the mid-teens, while he’s gotten his strikeout rate into single digits for the first time, backed by a microscopic SwStk%, is a good sign. He’s posted a SwStk% around this level six times over a 12 game stretch since 2018, so he’s done it before, but it doesn’t take away how impressive it is. He’s not yet at the age where another level of performance would be out of the ordinary, though it’s too soon to know if that’s coming this year.