Hitter maxEV Increasers — Through Apr 10, 2023

Usually, the larger the sample size the better when evaluating a metric. However, that’s not necessarily the case when looking at maxEV, Statcast’s peak exit velocity reading for a particular hitter. While you wouldn’t want to ding a hitter whose maxEV has declined versus last year after just a week and a half of games, you do want to celebrate a hitter who has already increased their maxEV after such a small sample of balls in play. You can’t really fake hitting the ball harder, so it’s possible that an increased maxEV is an early sign of a power spike. Let’s review the maxEV increasers and see if we can find any interesting names.

To ensure I wasn’t comparing this year’s maxEV to a small sample max last year, I used a 100 PA minimum in 2022.

The second best Reds prospect and 47th overall, Spencer Steer has filled the starting third base role for the team after a 108 PA debut last year. After consistent mid-teen HR/FB rates and .200+ ISO marks at nearly every minor league stop from 2021 to 2022, he didn’t show much power during his cup of coffee last year with the Reds. This year, things seem back to normal, as his maxEV is closing in on 110+, a level I always consider the minimum for a true power hitter. I’m intrigued by his history of single digit SwStk% marks, something he has accomplished at every stop except one during his minor league career. He gains significant value in OBP leagues given that his history of BABIP marks has been underwhelming, so you might be left with a low batting average, middling home run guy. He’s someone to check out in a deeper league if you need power, but I would be surprised if he earned any shallow league value.

The Phillies have been slaughtered by injury, which has given Edmundo Sosa an opportunity. As Alec Bohm shifts between first base and third base, Sosa has been making some starts at third, but not enough yet to be any sort of consideration outside of NL-Only leagues. As you might expect for a hitter who only has the equivalent of one full season, spread over five years, his seasonal maxEV marks have been all over the map. During his most extended look in 2021, he posted an elite 114.6 MPH maxEV, so he’s no stranger to a mark above 110. Last year, that mark slipped below 110, so he’s merely just getting closer to where he had been. I think there’s more power upside here compared to his career HR/FB rate and ISO, which combined with his steals potential, could make him a mini power/speed contributor. Of course, playing time here is key.

Don’t get too excited David Fletcher fans! This is merely a slight rebound off his first career sub-100 MPH maxEV posted last year. It’s still below all his previous maxEV marks posted during his first four seasons. So no, there’s no power spike coming from Fletcher anytime soon.

Robbie Grossman also suffered a maxEV decline last year to the lowest of his career. This year is merely a rebound, but that alone is a relief to see. Last year, his HR/FB rate slid to just 5.5%, and without the stolen base prowess he exhibited in 2021, he was a fantasy disappointment. I have no idea if he’s going to continue stealing bases, but the fact his maxEV is already near his typical marks means it appears his power has returned. He should once again be a decent OBP league contributor that you’re probably always looking to upgrade since he won’t stand out in any of the counting stats, but still delivers more value than you think.

After missing most of last year to injury, it’s good to see Ozzie Albies’ maxEV rebounding. It hasn’t yet hopped above 110 MPH like it did in 2019 and 2021, his last two full seasons, but it’s far more promising than what he posted last year. He hasn’t attempted a steal yet and swiped just three bases last year in eight attempts. So that’s an issue considering he had previously been one of the stronger power/speed contributors in middle infield. Something else to consider here is a sudden penchant for hitting grounders and his lack of fly balls so far. It’s a tiny sample though, but worth tracking.

How does a hitter post a 113.2 maxEV, 66.7% HardHit%, 33.3% Barrel%, but only a 10% HR/FB rate and .152 ISO?! MJ Melendez, the Royals, their fans, and his fantasy owners would love to know. It’s hilarious to see his xSLG sitting at an unbelievable .705, versus a .303 actual mark, so he may be the unluckiest hitter in baseball right now. After a massive power breakout between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, he was decent enough during his 2022 MLB rookie campaign, but maybe we expected a bit more than just a 13.1% HR/FB rate and .176 ISO. The Royals offense has been awful so far this year, having posted the second lowest wOBA mark in baseball at just .252. Obviously, better things are ahead, but this is still a weak offense, which will affect Melendez’s plate appearance total, as well as his opportunities to knock in runners and score runs himself. I think there’s a big rebound coming and there’s some serious power upside here, though it would translate to higher counting stats on a better offense.