Hitter maxEV Decliners — May 17, 2022

Yesterday, I looked at the hitter maxEV surgers versus last year. For this comparison, 2022 sample size doesn’t matter, as the smaller number of at-bats makes it that much more impressive that the hitter has already exceeded his 2021 maxEV. Today, we flip to the maxEV decliners. This time, sample size does matter, as hitters clearly had more opportunity to launch that one ball that marked their maxEV last year than this season so far. So take these names with a larger grain of salt and don’t panic nearly as much given the sample size issues. An appearance here could prove to be meaningless, or it could be nothing, and tomorrow the hitter hits that one ball hard enough to move that maxEV up.

This is quite the list of power disappointments!

The shocking name is the one on top. Manny Machado has opened the season on fire, posting a .443 wOBA, though it has been almost entirely driven by a ridiculous .406 BABIP. Last year, he posted a career high maxEV by far, and yet surprisingly, it resulted in a career low HR/FB rate! His current maxEV would represent a career low, which I think says more about his strong career of high maxEV, rather than anything to worry about now. His maxEV is still well above average, and he hasn’t really translated that EV into a high HR/FB rate anyway. His career high HR/FB rate is just 20.5% and career average just 15.3%.

Woah, maybe finding out that Myles Straw posted a maxEV of 109.8 MPH last year was more shocking to find Machado’s name at the top! Clearly last year was the outlier, so nothing to see here. Given the same number of PAs as last year, he’s only on pace for 17.6 RBI, which is kind of hilarious.

Like Machado, Jonathan Schoop is coming off a career best maxEV year, making this decline look worse. Still, this would represent a career worst, which has corresponded to a complete power outage. The problem here is that Schoop doesn’t steal bases, so if he’s not hitting for power, he’s contributing nothing to your fantasy team.

Connor Joe’s MLB career has spanned just 368 PAs so far, but he’s been pretty darn good. Of course, Coors has played a significant role given his massive home/road wOBA splits. With such limited history, it’s hard to gauge whether last year was the fluke or it’s just been too small a sample and he hasn’t gotten that big knock just yet. While he doesn’t look to be a big contributor in either homers or steals, he could do a bit of everything to still give him some shallow mixed league value. His value jumps even higher in OBP leagues.

Max Muncy opted for the rest and rehab route after suffering a torn UCL in his elbow on the last day of last season, and his power may very well be affected by that injury. It would make sense that it’s the cause of the big dip in power, but there’s no way to know, especially with power down across the league. Sometimes players suddenly get healthy and rebound, and sometimes they disappoint all season long. If I was an owner, I would probably remain patient and keep my fingers crossed. If I wasn’t an owner, I would likely shy away from targeting him in a trade.

Man, Ketel Marte’s power has been on a roller coaster ride since 2018! Up and down and up and down, it’s so difficult to determine his true talent level. You would never guess that he has maintained a maxEV of at least 115 every year since 2018, but he has, which makes this season’s mark quite concerning. I’m about to give up trying to predict his performance.

A .038 ISO for Robbie Grossman and 0 homers in 128 PAs?! Grossman has never been a big power guy, but his HR/FB rate and ISO did jump the last two years. He also supplemented the newfound power by suddenly stealing bases, but he’s at just one right now. He hasn’t been a killer in OBP leagues, but has done nothing aside from contributing in that one category. A weak surrounding offense hasn’t helped his R and RBI numbers either.

Most bought Bryan Reynolds for his solid all around contributions, including a strong batting average. While he has still maintained a low teen HR/FB rate despite the drop in maxEV, his average has plummeted thanks to an increased strikeout rate and collapse in BABIP. On a weak Pirates offense, I am not interesting in buying here.

This isn’t what Jose Abreu owners thought they were rostering on draft day. The good news is his walk and strikeout rates look good, as does his SwStk%, so no signs there that age is taking its toll. His xwOBA also sits a .359, wayyyyyyy above his .266 actual mark. His age does add some risk, but I would be comfortable buying here.