Hitter June 2025 Avg Bat Speed Gainers & Decliners

Similar to yesterday’s exercise where I compared starting pitcher Stuff+ grades in June to earlier in the season, let’s flip over to hitters and review average bat speed. I have no idea how stable it is during the season, so I was curious if I would even find meaningful bat speed gains and declines this month versus in the period ending in May. Sure enough, I did! So let’s review the most dramatic average bat speed gainers and decliners in June compared to the previous months of the season.

Lenyn Sosa hasn’t shown much power throughout his short MLB career, and his HR/FB rate is sitting at a career low. But that June average bat speed is meaningfully above the league average of around 72 MPH. While his HardHit% and maxEV are above league averages, he hasn’t been much of a barreler, which has hampered his power output. Since he seemingly has the power and just needs to optimize his swing to better to get to it, he seems like a deep power breakout candidate at some point. That doesn’t mean a 20% HR/FB rate and .200 ISO or anything, but perhaps back into the low teen or up to the mid teens in HR/FB rate range. Since he doesn’t steal bases, he really needs to develop the power to be a fantasy factor.

Christopher Morel has received sporadic playing time this year, making him a tough roster in anything but AL-only leagues. I was actually pretty bullish on a power rebound here, especially given the new Rays park, but his HR/FB rate is actually down even further from last year, which already represented a significant decline. It’s odd though as his Barrel% has fully rebounded and is tied for his career high, at an elite level. The increased bat speed, combined with the other Statcast metrics, screams impending power surge, but that’s not going to help his defense, which has been the primary factor behind his current role. Any HR/FB rate outburst is going to be compounded by his extreme FB%, which could potentially mean a juicy home run spike.

Otto Lopez had shown very little power in the minors, but suddenly his bat speed jumped above the league average in June, so perhaps there’s a bit of power growth here. His HardHit% remains below league average, but his maxEV is healthy and Barrel% is acceptable. With his low strikeout approach and some speed, he’s actually the seemingly boring deep leaguer who could contribute a touch across categories that is routinely undervalued.

Welcome back Mike Trout! His HR/FB rate on the season is fine, but his ISO is at its lowest point since his 2011 debut. But with strong Statcast metrics as good as ever, and an xwOBA drastically higher than his actual mark, it appears that bad fortune has reared its ugly head here. That his strikeout rate is back up after improving over a small sample size isn’t great, but everything else looks like vintage Trout.

I would not have guessed that Josh Naylor’s bat speed is well below league average heading into June and this month’s bump merely brought him just above average. Predictably, his HR/FB rate has crashed after last year’s spike, but a career best strikeout rate, a surprising 10 steals, and the second highest BABIP of his career have ensured that his owners ain’t complaining. Perhaps the improved bat speed will get his HR/FB rate higher into double digits.

So much for Leody Taveras’ increased bat speed!

Sheesh, James Wood’s bat speed was already well above the league average, but he has taken it up another notch in June. What’s crazy is that his FB% is only 31.6%, so it’s feasible his home run total would be higher if he hit a higher rate of flies without sacrificing anything else. I don’t see any flaws in this profile and I’m, in fact, wiping away the drool as I salivate over these skills.

Jonathan India has been a massive disappointment this season, with just four homers and no steals. Entering June, he had recorded just one home run, so it’s no coincidence that as his bat speed has improved this month, he knocked three home runs. His Statcast metrics are now close to in line with past seasons, but his HR/FB rate sits at a measly 4.1%. That should improve, assuming the increased bat speed sticks. But until he starts attempting more steals, and succeeding on those attempts, his value might be limited to AL-Only leagues.

Ryan Jeffers has posted the lowest HR/FB rate and ISO of his career, but career best walk and strikeout rates have still resulted in the second best offensive season of his career. His Statcast metrics are pretty normal, so you would expect a rebound in HR/FB rate, especially if he could maintain the increased bat speed. He’s a nice trade target if you need catching help, especially in OBP leagues if he keeps walking like he has.

Let’s now flip over to the average bat speed decliners.

So much for Brett Baty’s breakout. After enjoying a power surge in May, his bat sped decline leads baseball and his ISO has plummeted to just .115 in June. Funny, because his bat speed is still well above the league average, so this shouldn’t be that alarming, but the results have been atrocious. On the season, the Statcast metrics look great, but I’m guessing a lot of it was propped up during his torrid May. Still, that month did happen, so we can’t automatically call it a fluke and decide his true talent is closer to his April and June numbers. He’ll be in danger of losing his job once again when Mark Vientos returns.

Hmmm, Elly De La Cruz’s bat speed hasn’t been very special in June, but it hasn’t mattered at all — he posted a .449 wOBA and .368 ISO anyway! On the season, he’s performing as well, if not better, than expected, particularly on the home run front. The improved strikeout rate is encouraging, but he’s oddly stopped hitting line drives, which could eventually hamper his BABIP and batting average. I would still be a bit worried about the bat speed if it remained at this June level though.

Matt Chapman didn’t get a whole lot of swings in during June before hitting the IL, so the sample size here is a bit smaller. He was having his typical season, but with his best strikeout rate since 2019. The hope is that the hand injury won’t affect his performance once he returns.

Yikes, Geraldo Perdomo’s bat speed was already well below average, so it’s hard to believe there was room to fall even further. This reduced bat speed will make it very difficult to maintain his league average ISO and 8% HR/FB rate. Of course, you weren’t owning Perdomo for his power, but the fact he already notched a career high in home runs to go along with double digit steals certainly added to his fantasy value. He might revert to contributing just a bit in speed, and not much else.

After a strong first month, Kyle Manzardo has been weak offensively, and the reduced bat speed isn’t a good sign. His power did rebound a bit this month and it came with a significantly improved mid-teen strikeout rate, which would normally be intriguing. But he also stopped walking, so he’s been losing a bit of playing time, even sitting against a right-handed starter recently. As a DH, there’s a high offensive bar, which means his job isn’t totally secure. Since he’s an extreme fly ball hitter who’s going to run a low BABIP, he really needs that power to stay in the lineup.

Given mediocre HardHit% and weak maxEV marks, I had wondered how Connor Norby was posting strong power numbers in the minors. Was it a high pulled fly ball rate? It made me skeptical he could keep that pace in the Majors. Last year during his small sample debut, he proved me wrong, but this season, his power has collapsed. That bat speed was already low to begin with and fell even lower in June, so I’m not at all optimistic we’ll see anywhere near the power most expected of him over the remainder of the season.

We got word in early May that William Contreras has been playing with a fractured finger. That might explain a dip in bat speed and/or exit velocity, but not a further drop in June specifically unless the pain had gotten worse. He has been very disappointing from a power perspective and it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll rebound given what we know about the injury. Since he hits a low rate of fly balls, he really needs to jack up that HR/FB rate to up the homer total.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was already below league average in bat speed and fell below 70 MPH in June, as he struggles to keep his HR/FB rate in double digits. He has become the definition of replacement level in shallower mixed leagues, though the six steals already has propped up his value. I do like the career best strikeout rate here, but since his SwStk% has remained stable, I don’t buy that it’s going to stay that low.

Brooks Lee was in the Norby camp for me in that his HardHit% and maxEV marks in the minors didn’t justify the power output, particularly in 2024. So I was skeptical he would be able to display that same kind of power in the Majors. So far, he hasn’t, and his underwhelming bat speed suggest it’ll be quite challenging for him to do so. His complete lack of stolen bases really caps his value, so he’ll need to experience a power spike to become attractive in shallower leagues.