Hitter HR vs xHR — Jun 3, 2024

Statcast has enough toys to keep us nerds busy for months going down rabbit holes and digging into various metrics and numbers galore. One of the expected metrics I’ve rarely used and haven’t reach much about is xHR. It’s exactly what it sounds like, Statcast’s equation that calculates an “expected” home run total.

Historically, I felt like it was incomplete, as I believe it failed to account for environmental park factors, only accounting for a park’s dimensions. However, now I have discovered a “Type” dropdown that allows the user to choose between “Adjusted”, which is new (I think) and now the default, or “Standard”, which used to be the only calculation displayed. Each of the Type options are explained like so:

There are two views you may choose from: Standard, which is based purely on observed trajectory of the ball, and Adjusted, which applies an environmental variable based on the data displayed here.

The type of “Adjusted” signifies that each home run trajectory is altered to acknowledge the environmental context of the venue where it was hit. This adjustment is based on the data displayed in our Park Factors Leaderboard.

It sounds like this calculation has now become infinitely more useful! Though, I should probably run a correlation on historical data to see if it indeed is. For now, let’s peruse the underperformers and overperformers the way I do for other expected metrics.

Let’s begin with the hitters who have underperformed their xHR totals the most.

Bobby Witt Jr. also appeared on my “HR/FB Increasers?” board when discussing Blast Rate, so this is just another data point suggesting he’s due for a serious home run spike. It hasn’t even been his home park holding him back (which should be accounted for in the xHR equation anyway), as he’s posted almost double the HR/FB rate there compared to road parks. There’s little chance the .314 batting average sticks, which is propped up by a career best .349 BABIP, despite a lowly 16.2% LD% and severe fly ball tendency, but the power, particularly his home run rate, should surge soon.

Is it really fair to opponents to think that Juan Soto may actually be unlucky so far in the home run department?! His Barrel% is at a career best, but HR/FB rate right in line with last year and barely above his career mark. It’s interesting to see how batting right in front of Aaron Judge has impacted his results — his walk rate is at a career low, while he has seen the highest percentage of first pitch strikes in his career. As much as pitchers don’t want to give in to Soto, they certainly don’t want to see Judge at the plate with Soto on base via the free pass!

Kerry Carpenter figures to be out a while due to injury and ya never know how a hitter’s power is going to be affected by any particular malady. It’s too bad, he was enjoying a true breakout with a .387 wOBA and .380 xwOBA.

Yikes, Jung Hoo Lee is another injured guy, but he’ll be out the rest of the season. If he was sitting at five homers instead of two, he would have been a much more palatable fantasy option in his first MLB season.

Woah, Willy Adames’ HR/FB rate has declined each year since peaking at 22.9% during the short 2020 season. His Barrel% is also at its lowest since 2019, so it’s surprising to see he perhaps deserves a higher home run total. The good news here is a career best strikeout rate thanks to an improved SwStk%, but he was actually better there than during his first two years, and his strikeout rate was in the mid-to-high 20% range, so it’s anyone’s guess whether he could maintain this reduced mark. Anyhow, the steals are a nice bonus, as just one more sets a new season high.

Former top prospect Jesús Sánchez still shows 70/70 Raw Power on his player page, but oddly has only posted an ISO over .200 once. That’s because the big problem here is simply a lack of fly balls. He’s posted sub-30% FB% marks the last two years, which is bizarre for a guy who obviously owns lots of power. He has consistently posted strong maxEV and HardHit% marks, with up and down Barrel% marks, so it’s clear he’s got serious power potential. This year his HR/FB rate has been nearly cut in half, even though his HardHit% is at a career best, as is his maxEV. His Barrel% has slipped to a career worst though, but still above the league average. Like Adames, he has also cut down on his strikeout rate, but his SwStk% is right at his career average, so it’s hard to believe this is sustainable. With a .366 xwOBA vs a .292 actual mark, he looks like a nice NL-Only league target actually.

All of a sudden at age 34, veteran Salvador Perez is posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2015, which would pair great with his power, but his HR/FB rate is at its lowest since 2016. All his other power metrics look great, so even though he’s been a pleasant surprise with 10 homers already, he might be deserving of more. Of course, he’s not maintaining a .343 BABIP, and unlikely to keep that strikeout rate, so his batting average is going to tumble. But so far we could say that there’s no decline phase coming just yet!

Spencer Torkelson, who are you?! After hitting just four home runs heading into June last year, he 27 over the remainder of the season, officially making good on his former top prospect status. But now he’s back to his slow-starting ways yet again, posting a microscopic 4.8% HR/FB rate, backed by a tiny 3.9% Barrel%. Since he doesn’t steal bases or hit for BABIP due to his batted ball profile, power is the only thing we can count on here. If he’s not delivering it, he’s worthless to fantasy owners. Statcast thinks he’s been a bit unlucky, but even sixish homers at this point would be disappointing. I truly don’t know what to think here or what to expect over the rest of the season.

Let’s now shift on to the overperformers.

Hmmmm, two Astros compose the top two?! Are we sure Statcast is accounting for home park correctly?!

Kyle Tucker has posted the highest HR/FB rate of his career, and yet that’s still a reasonable 20.4%. His Barrel% has spiked to a career high as well, but comes with an in-line HardHit%, and surprisingly his lowest maxEV since 2019. A lot of his home run count is due to a big spike in FB% to the highest of his career, above 50% for the first time. That has really hurt his BABIP, but I don’t think his owners care. Clearly, there’s no selling high here, but the home run rate is likely going to slow a bit.

Well, gosh, that would be disappointing if Yordan Alvarez was sitting on just seven to eight home runs! What’s even more shocking is that he’s posted a career worst HR/FB rate, and yet Statcast still thinks he’s been lucky! His Barrel% is way down, but still strong in the low double digits, so it’s been a surprising down power year so far…and yet Statcast thinks it should be even worse, crazy! It’s not like he’s at an age where we might expect a slowdown, so unless there’s some hidden injury here, I’d expect his power to get back to normal.

All Elly De La Cruz needed to do to become a 30/30 threat was raise his FB% off a lowly 21.8% last year. He’s done that, though he’s still hitting way too many grounders for a guy with such power. His Barrel% is up, HardHit% remains good, and HR/FB rate down slightly versus last year, but Statcast thinks he’s been a bit lucky on the home run side. It’s definitely not obvious why, but I still think there’s some FB% upside given his early minor league days.

Mookie Betts started off blazing hot in April, but has cooled off considerably since, which is typically how baseball goes. Suddenly his HR/FB rate has been cut in half compared to last year, and his Barrel% sits at its lowest since 2017. His HR/FB rate now sits in a tie for the lowest mark of his career, matching his 2014 debut and 2015 first full year. And yet, Statcast still thinks he’s deserving of worse! What’s interesting is the decline in power paired with unbelievable plate discipline — his strikeout rate has dipped into single digits for the first time, so he has now walked more than he has struck out, and by a considerably amount. Everything else looks good here so I wouldn’t worry too much about the power.

Corey Seager’s HR/FB rate, HardHit%, and Barrel% are all in line with previous years, so it’s a surprise to find his name among the overperformers. He oddly forgot how to hit line drives this year, which has hampered his BABIP, but odds are that mark improves, increasing his batting average, and offsetting any home run regression that may come if his luck regresses to fall more in line with Statcast’s calculation.

Ha, remember how how Oswaldo Cabrera was to open the year? He hit two home runs in the first three games and everyone rushed to pick him up. He’s hit just two home runs since and Statcast thinks he only deserves one or two total. With a weak maxEV, HardHit%, and Barrel%, there’s no evidence of any real power in this bat, even though he has shown some at times in the minors. He’s a reminder to stop picking up guys who weren’t on your radar simply because they enjoyed a hot first week. Anyone could get hot for a week, and if that week happened to be this upcoming one, no one would really notice.

Jo Adell is finally busting out, at least with his power game, posting a 25.6% HR/FB rate, 44.7% HardHit%, and 14.6% Barrel%, all of which are career bests. Statcast ain’t buying that HR/FB rate though, which is unfortunate, because without any plate patience, and his BABIP crushed this year, all he’s got is that power. I do find it hilarious that no matter what Adell does at the plate, he’s stuck in the bottom third of the order, while Nolan Schanuel and his .281 wOBA bats leadoff, Willie Calhoun and his slightly inferior wOBA hits cleanup, and Mickey Moniak, with his incredible .206 wOBA has batted second often, including the last two games. We’re in 2024 and managers still can’t figure out how to optimize their batting order?! Even if using projections, the lineup still makes no sense.