Hitter Flyball Hard% Gainers — Through Jun 17, 2023

The easiest way for a hitter to increase his HR/FB rate is by simply hitting the ball harder. So let’s review the hitters that have increased their flyball Hard% the most versus 2022. These gains should correspond with HR/FB rate gains, but that’s not always the case. Furthermore, these gains may not last. Let’s find out who these mystery men are that have been knocking more snot out of the ball than last year.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. leads the pack here, as the only hitter that has gained a whopping 20%+ in flyball Hard% compared to last year. Sure enough, his HR/FB rate has catapulted off its bottom last year, quadrupling after a disappointing performance. Oddly, his maxEV has slipped to a weak 106.7 MPH, but his Barrel% has doubled, so he’s clearly hitting it hard enough to fly out of the park, but without any monster shots that would garner “oooohs” and “aaaaaahs”.

But, Statcast actually thinks his power results have been propped up by some good fortune, as his xSLG of .440 is well below his actual .513 mark. The weak maxEV may play into this, so perhaps we shouldn’t necessarily expect his current pace to be maintained. That said, he’s clearly regained his power from last year’s bottoming, but he might be a borderline mixed league start over the rest of the season.

For all this extra Hard%, Bobby Witt Jr.’s HR/FB rate has barely budged off his disappointing debut mark last year. With 50/60 Game Power and 60/70 Raw Power scouting grades, we certainly expected much better than a HR/FB rate hovering around 10%. All the seeds seem to be here, as his strikeout rate has been impressive given his age (I thought he’d strike out 30% of the time!), he has been an extreme fly ball hitter (excellent for his power potential, but sucky for his BABIP), his maxEV has sat just below 114 MPH, and his Barrel% has jumped into double digits.

Yet, the power output has been perfectly fine for his age, but we expected better than perfectly fine! Obviously, fantasy owners aren’t complaining, but rather than a 20/40 pace, he seems more than capable of being on a 30/40 pace right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if a power explosion is imminent.

Matt Vierling?! Finally, a nice little sleeper name to ponder. The 26-year-old has started most games in the Tigers outfield and has showcased some decent underlying skills. I like his low SwStk%, well-balanced batted ball distribution that’s low on pop-ups, and 113 MPH maxEV. His 13.2% HR/FB rate is probably better than expected, but still seemingly below what you might expect paired with that Hard%. He has chipped in some steals as well, so looks like a decent all-around contributor in deeper leagues with some additional power upside.

It’s been quite the rebound season for J.D. Martinez, which of course it is, because one of my toughest local league competitors rostered him at our auction. Incredibly, this is Martinez’s highest flyball Hard% since 2017, after slumping below 50% and seeing his Hard% decline for three straight years. He’s taking full advantage too, upping his Barrel% to an elite level and the second highest since it’s been tracked.

It doesn’t seem to matter that he’s also striking out more than ever before, driven by his highest SwStk%. Is he selling out to get his old power back? His walk rate is also at its lowest since 2013, before he became good. So either this is a conscious change in approach in which he’s swinging more and harder to regain his lost power, or age has taken a toll on his plate discipline, but better health has allowed his power to rebound. I have no idea which one of those is true, or if it’s a combination, but I imagine it’s one or both of those and not something else. Whatever the explanation, his power rebound looks legit.

Remember Paul DeJong, former power hitting middle infielder?! Well, his power faded last year, seemingly jumping up and down from season to season. Now, it’s back up again, which means you probably shouldn’t count on him in 2024.

Like Gurriel Jr. above, oddly DeJong’s maxEV has declined, while his Barrel% is actually at a three season low. You don’t normally see those trends along with a Hard% surge. He still swings and misses often and hits a ton of fly balls, which is great for his power, but not so good for his BABIP. Combine that with the strikeouts and you get a bad batting average. I’m not really interested here unless I was totally desperate for power in a deep league.