Hitter Flyball Hard% Decliners — Through Jun 18, 2023

Yesterday, I discussed five hitters who have raised their flyball Hard% marks the most versus 2023. Now let’s discuss the biggest decliners.

It’s cool that I rostered Andrew Benintendi in my two industry leagues, AL Tout and Mixed LABR! I was excited that he was going to spend a full season in a park that ranked third in left-handed home run park factor. Coming off just a 3.8% HR/FB rate and sub-.100 ISO, I thought the park switch would be the perfect driver of a rebound.

Oops. Instead, his flyball Hard% has plummeted to a career worst mark. This is actually the first time he’s even been below 30%, let alone 20%! What on Earth is going on here? Is he hiding an injury? He’s 28 years old, so his power shouldn’t suddenly have evaporated. All his other skills look fine and at least he’s chipped in nine steals already, one more than he swiped all of last season. But man, I have no idea what happened to his power or if and when it’s going to come back.

A lower back strain caused Michael Harris II to miss most of April after a fantastic fantasy season during his 2022 debut. His 2022 flyball Hard% would have been difficult to repeat, even if he hadn’t suffered the injury earlier this season. So now the question is how much has the injury sapped his power versus standard sophomore season regression?

His maxEV remains strong and is already set higher than last year, while his Barrel% has also inched up. He’s still not hitting enough fly balls to take advantage of his power though, so you could look at that as potential upside if he starts lifting the ball more, or simply a cap on his home run output. He has been incredible since Jun 7, so whether it’s just a hot streak or better health, it’s anyone’s guess. But he’s back to his expected level of production after a slow start and should continue to deliver both power and speed.

At age 30, Joey Meneses came out of nowhere last season to surprise with a .395 wOBA and .239 ISO over 240 PAs during his MLB debut. It’s not often 30-year-olds enjoy a hot start to their career and then maintain that strong performance the following year. That’s exactly what has happened here, as his power has gone completely M.I.A.

His maxEV is nearly identical to last year and his Barrel%, while down to just 6%, isn’t embarrassing, both of which suggest a higher HR/FB rate than just 3.2%. That’s quite the precipitous decline from 25.5% last year! His ISO has also slid to just .089, which is slap-hitter territory. Last year was clearly too good to be true, but even his minor league history suggests he should be hitting for more power than this.

The move to a more hitter friendly ballpark in Toronto should have boosted Daulton Varsho’s power. Instead, his Hard% has fallen, while his HR/FB rate is off last year’s mark. However, it’s not all bad. His maxEV is already sitting at a career high and his FB% has inched up again to a career high.

He has even cut his strikeout rate to a career best, thanks to his lowest SwStk%. Oh, and he’s already swiped 10 bases, contributing as a rare power/speed combo at catcher. It’s odd to see his flyball Hard% sitting at a career low when nearly every other metric of his looks good. I guess owners can do nothing else aside from holding on.

The Reds’ starting center fielder, on the strong side of a platoon, TJ Friedl’s flyball power has gone totally missing. He has never been much of a power guy though, as his peak HR/FB rate sits at just 10.8%. His maxEV at the MLB level is only 107.2 MPH and his Barrel% is quite weak.

So power wasn’t something that should have ever been expected to begin with here, and his lack of hard hit fly balls so far this season suggest it’s not coming anytime soon. At least he has stolen eight bases and batted .306, so he has still contributed for fantasy owners. However, with just a .288 xwOBA, versus a .359 actual mark, his luck might run out sooner or later and value plummet.