Hitter Fly Ball% Gainers — Apr 30, 2024

Typically when we see a hitter break out in the power department, hitting more dingers than projected, we naturally just assume they are hitting the ball harder, which would likely result in longer fly ball distances, ultimately driving a home run spike. You would therefore see this in an increased HR/FB rate. However, that’s not always how these surges occur. Sometimes, it’s simply a batted ball distribution change. That is, the batter is now hitting a significantly higher rate of fly balls than during the previous season, and might not necessarily be hitting those flies any more optimally.

Batted ball profile changes should be treated like any other metric over a small sample, so it’s more likely these names eventually return to their previous FB% level. But it’s possible they don’t, so knowing which hitters are hitting more flies will help validate a home run spike. So let’s find out which hitters have increased their FB% marks the most versus last year.

Holy guacamole that’s one heckuva jump for Edouard Julien! For most of his short minor league career, he posted a sub-30% FB%, so this is a complete turnaround for him. Given his strong HR/FB rate, an increased FB% is going to have a big impact for him. It’s how he’s already at seven homers, nearly half of what he hit all of last year, in just a quarter of the at-bats. There’s a lot more that fascinates me in his profile though.

First, his maxEV is pretty weak at just 106.9 MPH. Yet somehow, he sports an elite Barrel% of 17.5%! That seems really hard to do, as that means he has mastered how to barrel the ball with an optimal combo of exit velocity and launch angle, but consistently does so with like the minimum exit velocity possible. I did this last year to, but not to the same degree. What’s also interesting here is he was a line drive machine last year, but that has reversed this year, as he’s well below average. He also hasn’t hit a single pop-up, which seems impossible given the high FB%.

Though he did steal bases in the minors, he hasn’t been very interested in doing so in the Majors so far. So his value, at least in batting average leagues, is highly dependent on that home run total. I would have thought with the low maxEV and high HR/FB rate that he must be pulling a high rate of his flies. NOPE! Instead, he’s going OPPO with a ridiculous percentage of his flies. Man that takes some serious power. So his overall profile is quite fascinating, and we haven’t even talked about his passiveness that has dramatically increased his strikeout rate, despite good contact skills!

Cody Bellinger might be out for a while, but he was hitting a career high rate of fly balls before he landed on the IL. Like Julien, his LD% plummeted in the process, so you wonder if these hitters are consciously selling out for power, and stopped caring about any other batted ball type. Bellinger’s power is still nowhere near what he displayed during his first couple of years, as his maxEV has failed to even reach 110 MPH since 2020. He was sitting at his first double digit Barrel% since 2019 before getting hurt though, which was promising if it proved sustainable.

Mike Trout is back! His HR/FB rate is actually just marginally higher than last year, but a spike in FB% to a current career high has led to a league leading home run total as the only hitter in double digits. All those fly balls have killed his BABIP though, as he sits at just .200, and his wOBA is just slightly higher than last year. So the transition to extreme fly ball hitter hasn’t actually helped at all. What is a positive is the improved SwStk% and strikeout rate. Both of those marks first spiked in 2021, and stayed inflated since. He has now gotten both marks back down to his pre-2021 years, which is an excellent sign.

He has also swiped five bases already, which already matches his total since 2021! It’s pretty clear he’s as healthy as can be, so all his fantasy owners can do is cross their fingers that it stays that way.

There’s a lot to dislike in Ezequiel Tovar’s profile right now, but I like the batted ball distribution change given his home park. If you call Coors Field home, you definitely want to hit fly balls, as they go for home runs more often than in most other parks. Tovar actually posted an identical FB% back at Single-A in 2021, so he’s no stranger to being a fly ball hitter, but it’s a nice jump from last year.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to take advantage of that increased FB%, as his maxEV and Barrel% have actually fallen, as has his HR/FB rate. Only a .412 BABIP has pushed him to the top of the Rockies lineup, but that obviously won’t last. With just a .273 xwOBA, versus a .336 actual mark, owners should prepare for some slumping.

Riley Greene leading baseball in walk rate?! He has also finally upped his FB% to league average territory after posting mark only a weak slap hitter should be posting over the last two years. That’s a big deal for him, as although it has hurt his BABIP, it allows him to take more full advantage of his above average power. With a maxEV over 110 MPH and double digit Barrel%, he should have been hitting this rate of fly balls all along, or he’d end up like Eric Hosmer.

Overall, this looks like a breakout profile if I’ve ever seen one, especially for those playing in OBP leagues. Now, if he decided to attempt a steal and chip in with a handful as projected, he could become a true all-around contributor.

Boy oh boy it’s been a brutal start to the season for Bo Bichette. And according to xwOBA, he hasn’t even been unlucky, as his wOBA is almost identical! Bichette is coming off the lowest FB% of his career last season, but that’s mostly because his LD% spiked to elite levels, which is actually a positive. This year, his LD% has plunged to a career low, ranking fourth worst in baseball. Since his GB% is actually up, that suggests that the increased FB% isn’t actually because of a change in batted ball distribution, but merely because some of his previous line drives have become fly balls. That’s not usually a good swap.

Of course, he hasn’t been able to take advantage of the additional flies, as he sports just a 3.1% HR/FB rate. What’s odd is his maxEV is fairly normal at 111.2 MPH, but it’s paired with a tiny 2.3% Barrel%. His rates are the opposite of Julien’s! About the only positive in his profile right now is a career best strikeout rate and SwStk%. Yet somehow, even with the improved plate discipline results, the batted ball quality has been terrible. There’s really no reason to think he’s just lost it, so I assume he’ll come out of this funk sooner than later. It therefore couldn’t hurt to see how impatient his owner is in your league by making a trade offer.

Who knows if Lane Thomas’ injury will affect his batted ball distribution, but after consistently posting FB% marks right around 38% the last three seasons, he saw that rate spike so far this year. Like some of the others on this list, he failed to take advantage, as his HR/FB rate fell to single digits for the first time. It’s not a maxEV thing, but his Barrel% dropped to a career worst after a career high last year. At least he managed to swipe 11 bases while he was on the field, so his mere two homers and .184 batting average were slightly less difficult to stomach.

After rebounding last year following a weak Phillies debut in 2022, Nick Castellanos is back to struggling. His FB% sits at a career high, but his LD%, which has sat over 20% every single season except that first year in Philly, sits at just 15%. Like the other names on this list, all those extra flies haven’t mattered at all. His HR/FB rate sits at a microscopic 2.7%, while his Barrel is at just 3.8%. There’s clearly something going on here as xwOBA validates this hasn’t just been bad luck.

Given his track record, you have to think he’ll snap out of this funk at some point and the upside is considerable. But he’s batting seventh in the lineup now and that’s going to take a bite out of his counting stats. With such a high SwStk%, his skill set always looked risky, and that marks has risen three straight seasons, currently sitting at a career high.

Gosh, what is it with these FB% gainers that have almost all also suffered a HR/FB rate loss?! Alex Kirilloff joins that club, as his FB% had always hovered around 30%. With a high teens HR/FB rate like last year, this would have been a boon to his home run total. Instead, he’s sitting at just 4.2%, with a mediocre maxEV. Though, his Barrel% is just below double digits, so it’s odd to see such a solid mark there, paired with such a weak HR/FB rate.

Digging deeper into his results, we actually find he has posted a .190 ISO, which would represent a career high. That’s shocking considering just the one home run! But he has hit six doubles and three triples already, so the power has been there, just not the over-the-fence kind. Since he finds himself on the bench against left-handed starters, his upside is capped. When you also throw in the lack of speed, there’s not a whole lot to be excited about in shallower leagues.

Last season was a career low FB% for Bryce Harper. Obviously, for a hitter with a career 20.8% HR/FB rate, Harper should be hitting flies, at least at a league average level. It would appear he has corrected that so far this year, but wait, this looks like a similar issue as some of the other names on this list. While his FB% is up, his LD% is down to a career low. So what used to be liners have now become flies, and that usually ain’t good.

Once that LD% returns to normal levels, it’s likely the FB% is going to dip, but how much of the LD% rebound goes toward flies versus grounders is anyone’s guess. There are some other very faint red flags here regarding Harper’s power — his maxEV sits at a career low of 112 MPH, a mark that most hitters would be thrilled with, but not Harper, and a Barrel% in single digits (just barely) for the first time since 2017. He’ll probably be fine, but it’s worth noting anything that jumps out that could prove to be concerning once we get into June.