Hitter Barrel% Decliners — Through Jun 20, 2023

Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who have increased their Barrel% most compared to last year. Now let’s discuss the decliners.

Since debuting in 2019, Austin Riley has posted double digit Barrel% marks each season. That is, until this year…so far. His previous low Barrel% was 10%, during the short 2020 season, so this is a surprisingly slow start from a barrels perspective.

Interestingly, his maxEV is at a career best of 116.1 MPH, which is elite. All his other metrics look good too, including a career best SwStk%. Really, the only blemish on his season has been his power results, as his HR/FB rate has slid to a career worst, as has his ISO. It has led to a disappointing fantasy season so far. That said, with all his metrics looking good, it makes him quite the prime trade target.

Bryan De La Cruz’s Barrel% has been almost cut in half, but his HR/FB rate hasn’t declined nearly as much. He seems quite fortunate for that to happen. Aside from the drop in barrels, which might result in a decline in HR/FB rate if it doesn’t rebound, he simply doesn’t hit enough fly balls to make his home run power count.

His FB% has slipped below 30% and while his batted ball profile is ideal for BABIP, it’s not so much for home run power. With only a touch of speed, he should remain just a deep mixed option, as he would need to both push his Barrel% and FB% higher to become a real home run contributor.

Even though he has already been hurt and missed time, Byron Buxton is on pace to record his most PAs in a season since 2017! Hopefully I didn’t jinx him. But surprisingly, with better health has come a decline in power. After three straight seasons of mid-teen Barrel% marks and mid-20% HR/FB rates, both have fallen.

He remains an extreme fly ball hitter, with a career high FB% mark of nearly 52%. That means a higher HR/FB rate will dramatically increase his home run total given all his fly balls. However, the downside of all those flies is that when combined with a super low LD% and high IFFB%, you get a low BABIP. Then combine that with a 30%+ strikeout rate and you’re left with a .209 batting average. He also hasn’t run wild after the rule changes that have increased stolen bases, so you’re really banking on that power returning.

J.D. Davis’ Barrel% spiked last year, but his current mark is right at his career average. Despite the drop in Barrel%, his HR/FB rate has jumped to a career high, which seems a bit fortunate. The other issue with his power potential is that he is oddly a ground ball hitter. His FB% sits at just 26.1%, which is not what you would expect from someone who possesses the power he does.

It’s good to see his strikeout rate rebound after jumping above 30% the last two seasons, which combined with a high BABIP, has led to a positively valued batting average. He would be much more desirable for fantasy if he hit more fly balls, but he hasn’t really done so throughout his career, so it’s hard to imagine he suddenly starts to.

Trey Mancini’s meh start has relegated him to a weak side platoon role, as he now just starts against left-handed starters. His Barrel% has plummeted to a career low, essentially half of last year’s and his career rates. However, his HR/FB rate has only declined slightly from last year, but is well done from previous seasons and his career average.

His strikeout rate has also surged, despite a stable SwStk%, so it hasn’t exactly been his year. It’s pretty crazy that Mike Tauchman has essentially taken his job. I’m not sure he’ll play enough to prove he’s worthy of taking back his starting job, so if you still hold him in a deep league, it might be better to gamble on someone else.