Hitter Auction Calculator Awards: The Exceeds Expectations Award 2023

To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have earned at least $5 by the end of the season and accumulated at least $5 more than expected. This query logic allows for players who we already knew would be good but just didn’t know would be this good.

2022 Finalists: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman

2023 Finalists: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Corbin Carroll

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Finalist #1: Corbin Carroll, Projected $6, Earned $41

In 2023 Carroll outperformed almost every offensive statistic he posted in his 115 plate appearances in 2022. Rookies and prospects are difficult to project, even the really promising ones. That placed Carroll far down our auction calculator at the start of the season, but he didn’t stay there for long. He posted positive values in every category except for the RBI category. His 76 RBI ranked 22nd among all qualified outfielders in 2023, so it’s not like he wasn’t productive. Arizona’s team OBP was middle of the pack at .322 and perhaps Carroll’s leadoff spot in the lineup hurt his ability to knock in runs. I’m excited to see where this young star goes in drafts next season.

Here’s a look at his projected and earned value:

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Finalist #2: Ronald Acuña Jr., Projected $50, Earned $86

Of course, we knew Acuña would be good. We just didn’t know he’d be 40-70 good. It had to have been difficult to project stolen bases. We knew the bases were bigger, and we knew more bases would be stolen, but we didn’t know how many we should realistically add to specific players’ totals. The bar graph below shows how big the jump in stolen bases in 2023 was over previous years:

Acuña certainly helped boost that bar all the way to the right and that’s a big reason for his value exceeding expectations by over $35 dollars. But, it’s not the only reason. Thanks to this increase in stolen bases around the league, the number of players who hit over 20 home runs and stole over 20 bases grew. However, the players who hit as many home runs and stole as many bases as 2023 Ronald Acuña Jr. are non-existent. He was an outlier:

Acuña’s gap in projected and actual value in 2023 had a lot to do with the fact that he was coming off such a significant injury. That likely affected his stolen base and power projections, but Acuña outperformed his batting average expectations more than any other category. His career-high .337 was second to only Luis Arraez. The price for Acuña will be high next season.

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…and the award goes to…

Finalist #3: Matt Olson, Projected: $23, Earned $61

On almost all accounts, 2023 was the best season of Matt Olson’s career. At age 29, Olson recorded the highest number of plate appearances of his career with 720. That type of accumulation will help any player exceed expectations but when it comes along with increased rate stats like a career-high hard-hit rate of 55.1%, a career-high barrel rate of 16.4%, and a career-high wOBA of .413, it brings fantasy championships.

Not only did Olson hit a major-league-leading 54 home runs, but he did it with an improved batting average. The negative mAVG that he was tagged with pre-season was likely due to the fact that he had only once, in 2021, posted a batting average above .270. Yet in 2022, he dipped back down to .240, below the league average. These improvements, coupled with one of the most potent offenses of all time, were the perfect combination to make Matt Olson one of the best fantasy players in 2023. As we begin speculating on next year’s rankings, Olson will no doubt be a top target and could possibly find himself in fantasy first rounds.

Congratulations to Matt Olson on an amazing season and to any fantasy managers who rostered him. Next week, I’ll take a look at the overall largest differences in projections versus earned value with the Nobody Saw You Comin’ Award.