Hitter AB/HR Breakouts & Busts — May 19, 2025

We’re almost a quarter of the way through the regular season, and we still find some surprising names among the home run leaders, while others are mysteriously sitting toward the bottom. Since there are a number of components that drive a hitter’s home run total, I like to understand what’s providing the fuel. Identifying the changes in inputs will give us a better idea of whether the current performance is sustainable or we could expect a reversion back to what the hitter had been projected to do all along. So with that in mind, let’s review the AB/HR breakouts and busts.

What I did for this exercise was calculate the preseason ATC projected AB/HR and compare it to the current actual mark. Rather than subtract and sort (which would skew results toward those with AB/HR, whether projected or actual, in the triple digits), I calculated the percentage of the projected AB/HR the actual AB/HR represents. By doing this, I avoided the guy projected for 600 AB/HR that’s currently at 300 AB/HR, which would likely result in a two-homer pace instead of one. That’s meaningless, of course.

With two homers more than he hit all of last year, in about double the at-bats, Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of fantasy’s MVPs so far, especially when accounting for cost. Two drivers are fueling this power breakout. First, his HR/FB rate has nearly doubled, supported by a Barrel% that has jumped into double digits and average bat speed up 1.2 MPH. Furthermore, he has become an extreme fly ball hitter — his 54.6% FB% is up 12.1% compared to last season and is fourth highest among qualified hitters. So it’s an easy formula, hitting more fly balls, and hitting a higher percentage of those fly balls out of the park is going to result in a major home run breakout.

It’s hard to believe either mark being sustained over the rest of the season, though the FB% is more intentional and perhaps a conscious choice. His HardHit% is a bit above average, while his maxEV is only marginally higher than last year and around the league average. I’m not sure he has the raw power to sustain that HR/FB rate and it’ll be hard to maintain a FB% over 50%. At least he’s got the steals though if his home run pace declines!

Geraldo Perdomo hasn’t exactly been on the fantasy radar as aside from a handful of steals, he wasn’t much of a contributor anywhere else. He’s now close to matching his previous career high in home runs and it might come in half the at-bats or less. His HR/FB rate remains below league average, but is nearly double his previous career high and almost quadruple is low from last year. While he hasn’t yet hit a ball harder than last year, all his Statcast metrics, including his average bat speed, have improved. Of course, everything still remains below the league average, so there’s almost definitely no additional upside from here. Since he’s stealing more than ever, walking a ton, and has a decent profile for batting average, it’s not really a big deal if his home run pace slows down, which I do expect.

Maikel Garcia was clearly drafted for his stolen bases, with the promise of the occasional home run. The steals have continued to come, but now he’s just two away from matching his career high home run total. So far, he has double his HR/FB rate from last year and nearly doubled his Barrel%. Interestingly, his HardHit% always hinted at imminent power and his maxEV has remained pretty healthy. But for whatever reason, he just hasn’t been able to combine that exit velocity with an optimal launch angle to produce more power. It’s anyone’s guess if he could suddenly maintain this higher Barrel%, but since it’s still below average, I’m going to bet that he’ll come closer to his current AB/HR the rest of the way than what he was projected for.

Okay, first off, can we just take a moment to acknowledge that Luis Arraez has struck out all of three times all season?! That’s insane! It works out to a microscopic 1.8% strikeout rate. That’s actually one of the drivers of his better than expected AB/HR rate, as he’s simply putting more balls in play than we thought was humanly possible. He’s somehow managed three home runs despite failing to record a single barrel so far, and his HardHit% is at a career low and below 20% for the first time. So, his raw power hasn’t actually increased at all, but out of all those balls in play, three managed to find the seats. It’s hard to believe he could keep up this strikeout rate, and whether or not he does, I don’t think he’ll maintain the AB/HR rate.

Jacob Wilson hit four home runs in spring training for a 25% HR/FB rate, but that doesn’t always mean anything. This time, it seemingly did. His Statcast metrics are actually quite weak and his average bat speed is one of the lowest marks in baseball. So it’s hard to imagine he maintains a double digit HR/FB rate. Making his home run pace even more challenging to keep up is the tiny 22.2% FB%. He simply doesn’t hit many balls in the air and doesn’t have enough power for a high rate of those to leave the yard. With his low walk and low strikeout rate approach, he’s actually giving me Arraez vibes. That means he’ll likely continue as an excellent batting average contributor, but not much else since he doesn’t steal bases.

It’s been a full-fledged breakout for Kyle Stowers so far who sports a shocking .404 wOBA, which is incredibly supported by a .406 xwOBA. There’s been no good fortune here! His strikeout rate has improved a bit, though he still swings and misses a ton and his HardHit% remains elite at just over 50%, but the big difference comes from his Barrel%. He was in the low double digits in 2022 and 2024, but he has doubled that mark this year and now ranks fourth in baseball among qualified hitters. He has also increased his average bat speed by 1.1 MPH. He has posted 20%+ HR/FB rates in the minors, but his power scouting grades did not suggest he would be a big power producer in the Majors. So far, his metrics validate what he’s done so far, but that doesn’t mean he’ll keep up those metrics. I have to believe the Barrel% will decline, though he’s probably still capable of a high teen to low-20% HR/FB rate. Oh, and he’s not going to keep up the .389 BABIP.

Eugenio Suárez has found the fountain of youth, as he has posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2018, and the highest FB%, HardHit% and Barrel% of his career. His average bat speed has been stable and his maxEV is the same as always. So perhaps it’s just been a strong 164 at-bats as the 33-year-old likely didn’t gain any raw power, but has just been hitting the ball more optimally so far this season.

Spencer Torkelson is good again! Actually, he’s been significantly better than his 31-homer year in 2023. Interestingly, his HardHit% and maxEV sit below his 2023 marks, while his Barrel% is only marginally higher. But his HR/FB rate has jumped, and a career high FB% has benefited his AB/HR rate. I don’t see any reason to think he won’t keep up this level of performance. He even has some slight upside, at least on the batting average side, given his low .245 BABIP.

We knew that James Wood had big home run potential. He had posted strong power numbers in the minors and HardHit% marks over 50% since Triple-A last year. The knock on him was a low FB%, but he has improved that mark this season. It still remains below average though and it’s possible some of those flies turn into line drives, as the latter sits at a well below average rate after coming in above average last year. Along with the increased FB% is a surge in Barrel%, plus a 1.8 MPH gain in bat speed. We’ll have to see where his batted ball profile lands, but this is clearly a future superstar.

Wilyer Abreu is a great example of why it’s worth diving into the drivers of a home run outburst. Yes, his HR/FB rate is up a bit, and his Barrel% has spiked too, but much of the AB/HR breakout has been driven by an improved strikeout rate and jump in FB%. The strikeout rate has come down an incredible 9% thanks to a reduced SwStk%, while his FB% ranks first among all qualified hitters. So he’s putting a lot more balls in the air, plus a higher rate of those balls are going over the fence. That’s the recipe for a home run spike. As usual, I don’t know how sustainable the improved strikeout rate is and it’ll definitely be hard to maintain a league leading FB%. But I do think his HR/FB rate is reasonable.

Both Nico Hoerner and Xavier Edwards have yet to homer, making their 2025 marks and the percentage difference between years infinite. It’s not like these two were expected to be significant home run contributors though, so owners aren’t lose much here. They’ll just need a home run or two soon and suddenly their paces will be right back on track.

What has happened to Jonathan India’s power?! Oh, I know what, I rostered him in AL Tout Wars! He’s striking out at a career best clip, while his FB% has jumped over 40% for the first time. That combination should be fantastic for his home run potential, but instead, he’s sitting here with just one home run and a tiny 1.7% HR/FB rate! His HardHit% is identical to last year, and while his maxEV and Barrel% are down a bit from years past, it’s not enough so to justify the power outage. Since he hasn’t stolen a base yet, he’s been a major bust so far. The power should definitely improve, but without a double digit steal pace, it’ll be hard to salvage his draft day cost.

Joey Bart enjoyed a half season breakout last year after the former top prospect disappointed with the bat for years. This year, his power has disappeared, as his FB% has slipped below 30%, while his HR/FB rate sits at just 4.2%. Surprisingly, his HardHit% sits comfortably above average and at the second highest mark of his short career, while his double digit Barrel% represents a career high. Sure, the lack of fly balls isn’t great, but he seemingly deserves a significantly better home run rate than he’s posted so far. He looks like a good trade target for those in need of a catcher upgrade.

Can someone explain how Gavin Lux managed a 25.2% HR/FB rate and .260 ISO in the minors back in 2019 and hasn’t shown anything close to that power since? We all keep waiting for the power spike and a move to home run friendly Great American Ballpark looked like a possible spark. Instead, he’s homered just once, posting a career low FB% and HR/FB rate. His HardHit% remains above the league average, but his maxEV has fallen and his Barrel% is well below the league average and nowhere near the level of a power hitter. Oh, and he has lost 1.7 MPH in bat speed. He’s still 27 years old, so I guess it would be silly to completely write him off. But he’s shown absolutely nothing to make us think a power surge will ever be in his future.

Luis Rengifo has posted four straight double digit HR/FB rates, but is sitting at a career low, while his FB% remains sub-30% after dipping last year. So in other words, few fly balls, and when he does hit the rare fly ball, it stays on the field. His HardHit% is down and maxEV weak, though his Barrel% isn’t too far below his career average. So his power will likely improve from here. The more worrisome issue for his fantasy owners (which includes me, sadly) is the one steal to three caught stealings. After swiping 24 bases in half a season last year, it sure seemed like a 20-steal season, at the very least, would be in the bag over a full year. Oops, guess not! He’s been another major bust this year.

Salvador Perez has come up in some other recent articles where I concluded that he makes for a great trade target. He still hasn’t turned things around, which means I’ll probably be calling him an ideal target until the season ends, at which point I’ll admit defeat. Everything here looks normal and excellent, except that bizarre 3.4% HR/FB rate. Seriously, how has he managed that HR/FB rate with a strong 13.6% Barrel%?! That’s crazy!

Joey Ortiz has reduced his strikeout rate and raised his FB%, but unfortunately, his HR/FB rate has collapsed to just 2%, resulting in just a lone dinger. His issue, like Lux above, has been barreling the ball, despite acceptable other Statcast metrics. With just a .208 wOBA, you have to wonder how long he’ll remain in the starting lineup, though the Brewers don’t have any obvious alternatives.

In 2023, it looked like Ke’Bryan Hayes was finally seeing his power blossom. Then it went downhill last year and it hasn’t recovered. One of the drivers of his career high 15 homers in 2023 was a 39% FB%. He has been below 30% every other season and is at just 32.5% this year. He seemingly has an extreme Lux/Ortiz problem, as his HardHit% is superb at 48%, while his maxEV marks have always been above 110. But like those other names, he simply hasn’t been able to barrel the ball. I truly wonder how some hitters could hit the ball hard, but seemingly only on the ground, so their exit velocity related metrics look good, but Barrel% bad. It seems fixable, and we see breakouts all the time enjoy a surge in Barrel% who always had the HardHit% and maxEV, but you never know if and when that breakout will happen. Hayes seems like a good candidate to eventually enjoy a Barrel% spike and reach 20 home runs at some point.

Trea Turner’s FB% is down in a tie for the lowest rate of his career, while his HR/FB rate is about a third of his career mark and only the second time it has sat in single digits. Both his HardHit% and maxEV look fine, but his Barrel% is down at its lowest since 2017. He has lost a mile per hour in bat speed, but that doesn’t seem large enough to explain the big HR/FB rate decline. That his stolen base pace has jumped versus last year has helped keep his fantasy value afloat.