Here Come the Prospects: Giants and Rockies

When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who is likely to turn the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll have a look at the expect time frames for key prospects in each organization. Earlier this week, we looked at the Dodgers and the Padres.

San Francisco Giants:

2016 Sleeper: Josh Osich, LHP: I know what you’re thinking: “Hulet, you’re crazy… Osich got into 35 games in 2015… He’s no sleeper!” Well, it depends how you look at it. The lefty retained his rookie eligibility and only threw 28.2 innings. And as a southpaw it’s easy to label Osich as a LOOGY and go about your merry way. I see him as more, though. He’s has the stuff to develop into a Brett Cecil kind of contributor — a lefty that can get out hitters in both batters’ boxes and serve various roles including set-up man and closer. Don’t sleep on this, er, sleeper.

2017 Stud: Christian Arroyo, SS: The Giants already have a talent infield combo up the middle so Arroyo could make things interesting next year. He’ll open 2016 in Double-A and has shown enough aptitude at the plate to suggest he could end the year in Triple-A (or the Majors). With that said, his aggressiveness could get him into trouble at higher levels so he still has some adjustments to make. But you can’t argue with his career .303 average and developing power (currently gap power). The Giants really know how to develop players in-house so keep Arroyo in your sights.

Long-term Investment: Lucius Fox, SS: Signed as an amateur free agent in 2015 at the age of 18, Fox is easily the most athletic player in the system. Even if he doesn’t hit (and there is no reason to think he won’t), he could develop into an impact player based on his other-worldly speed and defensive capabilities. Fox could be the heir apparent to the shortstop gig or — depending how quickly he develops — he could end up in center field.

Colorado Rockies:

2016 Sleeper: Tom Murphy, C: The Rockies will likely open 2016 with Nick Hundley seeing the majority of playing time behind the dish and a lesser-known dude like Dustin Garneau backing him up. The veteran backstop is nothing special but he had a nice first year in Colorado while being aided by his home park. However, Murphy could be an absolute beast for the Rockies. He slugged 20 home runs in the minors in ’15 and then added another three in the Majors in just 11 games. Murphy, 24, likely won’t hit for a ton of average and he’s not a big on-base guy but the hitting bar isn’t overly high for catchers and the 20+ home run potential could make him a stud.

2017 Stud: Ryan McMahon, 3B: I love McMahon. He’s probably one of the best hitters in the minors (that you’ve never heard of because he plays for Colorado). He’d have received a lot more hype if he played for large market team like New York or Los Angeles. He owns a .297 career batting average and has shown immense raw power with 18 home runs each of the last two years to go with more than 40 doubles — and we all know those can be an indicator of future home-run potential in young players. The biggest obstacles that McMahon face are A) His strikeouts (153 last year) and his position (3B — He’s not moving Nolan Arenado). The club might be wise to consider him as the first baseman of the future once they (undoubtedly) tire of Ben Paulsen, although right field could also be an option if/when the club jettisons Carlos Gonzalez.

Long-term Investment: Forrest Wall, 2B: Just 20 years old, Wall is another underrated guy despite being selected 35th overall in the 2014 draft. The second baseman could settle into Colorado as soon as 2018. He’s not a big home run guy but he has excellent bat speed that could translate into unexpected power once he’s playing half his games in Colorado. As well, he offers well-above-average speed and developing on-base acumen.