Hawpe, Loney, Johnson: Cut Your 1B Losses
The first two or three weeks of the baseball season result in all sorts of funny numbers, especially in standard 5×5 categories. Some guys get off too ridiculously good starts and others slump, but knowing who’s for real and who isn’t is the key this early in the schedule. A pair of fantasy stalwarts and one trendy sleeper pick are off to painfully starts to the season, and now’s the time to cut your losses.
Brad Hawpe | Padres | .119/.174/.143, 0 HR, 2 RBI
To say Hawpe has looked awful would be an understatement. His decline started a year ago, and it’s absurdly obvious when you look at his daily graphs page and see everything is headed in the wrong direction. Hawpe was always a fine mid-to-rate round pickup because of gaudy OBP and RBI totals, but it would take a minor miracle to get him back to that point right now.
Dan Johnson | Rays | .130/.190/.204, 1 HR, 3 RBI
A trendy late-round pickup in deeper leagues, Johnson has reminded everyone why the vast majority of his career has been spent in leagues not defined as major. Yes, a .133 BABIP is brutal (26.1% infield fly rate (!!!)), but he isn’t drawing walks or producing runs despite spending most of the year batting in the middle of the lineup. Third base eligibility is nice, but let him figure it out in the free agent pool and not on your roster.
James Loney | Dodgers | .181/.200/.236, 1 HR, 8 RBI
Loney has been worse than terrible, beating the ball into the ground more than 50% of the time and drawing exactly zero unintentional walks in 72 plate appearances this season. He’s been little more than a decent fantasy option over the last three seasons due to fine batting averages and RBI totals, but first baseman without power need to be on short leashes. Don’t fall in the trap of waiting for a young guy (Loney’s only 26) to turn it around at the expense of your fantasy team, finding a replacement at this position is a piece of cake.
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Some other slow starters that I’m a bit more bullish on: Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Adam Lind, and Adam LaRoche. Derrek Lee is sort of in between the two groups. Those guys get longer leash because they could still rebound to provide elite production even at first base this summer. The three guys above though, be pro-active and stop waiting for a rebound that probably won’t ever come.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
I’ve been burned badly by Johnson so far. In my OBP league he was so valuable late last season even below the Mendoza line because of his walk rate. Just don’t know what happened to the patient approach (he’s been swinging really early in the count this year).
I finally dumped him for Joyce last night. I will miss that 3B eligibility in Yahoo leagues though.
What the heck happened to Bradley Hawpe? He was money in the bank. I’ve had him for four years in a dynasty league. 16 team league. I’m cutting him this weekend. It has been fun, Bradley. I feel like my dog died.
I think your dog died two or three years ago, you just may have discovered the carcass.
Hmm, at the end of 2009, less than 2 years ago, hawpe was at about a .380 OBA and .500+ slugging. Hardly a dead dog. But yeah, after last year, and moving from coors to Petco. He was my 3rd 1b this year but he’s getting the axe.
What about Michael Morse? I’ve been stubbornly holding onto him based on his 15 HR’s in 266 AB’s last season followed by a huge spring this year (which I know isn’t the greatest indicator but still). He’s been horrible this season, but with a short bench is there any reason to hope for a rebound?
Cut Morse myself a week and half ago to pick up Berkman. At this point, I’m thinking the chance of Berkman’s resurgence is greater than any chance that Morse will have for a “breakout” season…
If Berkman were still on the wire, I definitely would have made that move a few weeks ago, but he was grabbed early. Very slim pickings at first base in this league (eleven starting slots, one 1B, one general IF spot, and one DH spot – many teams are starting three 1B’s nightly).
Thanks for the 2 RBI so far Derrek Lee! Has anyone watched him play? I can’t find anything in the small sample size of line drive and contact rates that would indicate he deserves this sort of start. Does he still pass the eye test?
Lee’s bat looks a little slow, like he had off season wrist surgery. of which he did.
Brad Hawpe hasn’t just declined, but fallen off a cliff and done a Wliey E. Coyete boulder face plant. At this point I wonder if a sports psychologist is in order.