Harper, Heyward, and Bruce: What Can We Expect From Them?

The calendar has flipped to September, which means we’re down to the final stretch of the season. As a result, there are a plethora of characters and stories circulating through baseball, but at the moment I’m particularly interested in three outfielders; Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, and Jay Bruce.  Three national league right fielders, each playing for a contender, and each going through various stages and degrees of struggle.

Jason Heyward came into the season with a newly minted 184 million dollar contract, which he has presumably framed somewhere in his house.  If it were me, I’d probably have a copy framed in every room of my house, but that’s neither here nor there.  Bryce Harper entered the season as the reigning NL MVP, with many claiming he was going to officially dethrone Mike Trout as the greatest player in the sport.  Jay Bruce, well, he might not be as accomplished or wealthy as the other two, but was acquired by a New York Mets team that placed huge hopes that not only would he help them down the stretch this season, but also act as leverage to perhaps extend Yoenis Cespedes, or even replace Cespedes altogether next season. Those are big shoes to fill.

Each of these players were given high expectations, and all three have, to varying degrees, failed to live up to the billing.  In addition, all three have lost playing time in the past few weeks due to poor performance.  First, about three weeks ago, Dusty Baker gave Bryce Harper a solid week off from play, sitting him for every game between Sunday August 7th until Sunday August 14th. This break came after a Harper bat a poultry, pitcher-esque .134/.259/.209 for an entire month after the All Star Break. Numbers that are uncomfortably similar to the likes of Stephen Strasburg (.208/.240/.229) and Jake Peavy (.185/.241/.185). However, after his mid season break, he seems to have snapped right out of his funk, hitting a few home runs, a few doubles, and a whole load high exit velocity balls since then. Many point to his little siesta as a potential break out moment for the struggling reigning MVP, perhaps spurring him on to carry the Nationals deep into the post season.

Barely a week later, Jason Heyward was given a short break of his own.  He sat four consecutive games between August 18th and 21st. He, too, has returned to form from his short rest, hitting much better than he was before.  Jay Bruce’s vacation wasn’t continuous, but he sat out 5 of 9 games between August 20th and 29th. Each of these players have struggled, each have sat out of games, and each have hit better upon their return to play, granted these are incredibly small sample sizes.

Personally, I don’t feel like the in game results necessarily tell the whole picture of how these players are performing, so I’ve gone through and compiled their batted ball stats so hopefully we can build a better picture of how these players have been trending lately, how they have trended over the course of the season, and what their respective teams should expect them to produce down the stretch.

Bryce Harper

Last year Harper had a historically great season, especially with his power numbers. He slowed down quite a bit towards the tail end of last season, which could be easily attributed to his long list of injuries, particularly to his legs.  While he lead most of last season by a healthy margin in terms of Value Hits and xOBA, he did slip down the ranks a little bit, finishing behind the likes of Trout, Ortiz, and Miguel Cabrera.

He achieved that level of offensive dominance by hitting a tremendous number of very hard line drives (24.8% of BIP, averaging north of 95 mph exit velocity), along with a similar number of hard hit fly balls (24.52% of BIP, averaging around 92 mph exit velocity). This lead to an extremely high number of very high value contact, great slugging percentage, great BABIP, and of course the NL MVP.

This season, by contrast, many of his line drives have been converted to ground balls. I have written a few times about how certain players and teams can make a living off of consistently high value ground balls. Harper most certainly has not been in this camp in 2016, he is hitting very weak ground balls, and as a result his poorly hit rate has leaped from 14% to 21%. Remember, poorly hit balls are almost automatic outs. Meanwhile, his value hit rate, which are near automatic extra base hits, has plummeted from 10% to 7.6%. In a season where the average exit velocity for batted balls has increased by nearly 1.5 mph, Harper’s exit velocity has dropped by that same amount.

However, he was given a break from game action in mid August, and since that point he has played like a new man. Kinda. Sorta. His ground ball rate has soared to even greater heights, his line drive rate has been slashed to merely 13%, and his fly ball rate has exploded. Yes, his exit velocity is up. He is averaging 100mph exit velocity on line drives, a ludicrously high average EV. But this is not a sustainable model, he did not produce batted balls in this manner last season, he certainly didn’t do it most of this season. I fear this is going to be a short blip for Harper, before his batted balls go back to normal.

That’s the question, though. What is normal for Harper? It seems clear that his hard hit line drives aren’t going away any time soon, so the question comes down to quality of fly balls. Last season Harper was pulling the ball much more than this season. His balls to right field were not only more numerous, but also closer to the line. Obviously that is a great place to hit the ball, since it is harder to defend and the walls aren’t as deep. However, this season Harper is hitting the ball a few degrees more towards center field, more toward the gaps. For certain line drives, that can be a good place to hit the ball, but we’re talking about Harper’s towering fly balls here, and lets not forget he does have a penchant for hitting the ball particularly high into the air (average of 34 degree launch angle on fly balls).

The question then, can Harper go back to pulling the ball the way he did last season? Unfortunately, the last few weeks, since his little rejuvenation, he has hit the ball even more up the middle, increasingly towards center and left field. The opposite of how he succeeded last season.

Hitting the ball the other way isn’t necessarily a bad thing, of course. Especially if you’re hitting line drives, they can drive a very high BABIP.  Fly balls, though, are much more valuable when pulled. But, like I said before, Harper hits a very large number of line drives in addition to his large number of fly balls, and  certainly has the raw power to hit a ball out of any part of the ball park.

If Harper continues batting this same way down the stretch, you’d expect him to hit about

Expected down the Stretch: .252/.380/.472

xStats to date: .258/.382/.420

Actual Stats to date: .249/.381/.464

Which is pretty much dead on to his numbers up until this point of the season. Regardless of what his game production has been the past few days, his batted ball quality has not changed significantly, and you should expect more of the same out of him down the stretch. Whether that is a good or bad thing is a matter of perspective.

Jason Heyward

Last year Heyward had one of the best seasons of his career, both offensively and defensively. It propelled him to an 8 year, 184 million dollar contract, which was highly controversial at the time, and has only grown more so in the months since. Last year, Heyward produced offense primarily in the form of well hit ground balls supplemented by a few line drives and fly balls. Namely, he was hitting 92-94 mph ground balls, both to the pull side and up the middle. This formed a good offensive foundation, even though it was almost entirely singles, on which he added occasional line drive and fly ball doubles and home runs to round out his game. Overall his average exit velocity wasn’t stellar, only 88.7 mph, but he did manage 6% VH% showing he did have a penchant for solid contact on occasion.

In other words, Heyward was a singles hitter who popped one solid hit every 17 PA or so. Not a super star, but a good offensive player, solidly above average.

This year, Heyward’s ground ball rate has dropped significantly, and so has his average ground ball exit velocity, and while the number of line drives and fly balls have gone up, the quality of each has declined. Heyward has gone from a guy who made a living off ground balls to a guy who isn’t hitting nearly enough of them to make up for his weak fly ball and line drive production.

In the past week or so, since Maddon gave him four days to collect himself, Heyward has hit even fewer ground balls and even hit more weak line drives and fly balls. He has doubled down on the problem he has been struggling with all season. The exit velocity has gone up significantly, but it is such a small number of plate appearances, and it comes without correction for his underlying batted ball problems.

At the end of the day, Heyward needs to focus on the top half of the ball, hit the ball on a shallow trajectory, and use his speed to get on base. He has never proven to be a player who can elevate the ball with authority, and throughout this season he has certainly been elevating the ball more than he did last year, which was one of his most successful offensive seasons. With all that said, and this is likely tainted by sample size, as long as he maintains this higher average exit velocity you have to give him a tick up in batting average and slugging, even assuming the same general ground ball/line drive/ fly ball ratios.

If Heyward continues to bat this way down the stretch, especially if he maintains this extra velocity, expect him to hit:

Expected down the Stretch: .285/.299/.466

xStats to date: .260/.330/.358

Actual Stats to date: .234/.306/.328

Jay Bruce

The Mets have been battling injuries all season long, and yesterday they announced Neil Walker was likely done with for the season with a herniated disc, the second Met of the season to undergo surgery for this particular ailment. With his loss, Jay Bruce, the Mets deadline acquisition this season, will become increasingly important down the stretch for their playoff hopes.

When the Mets traded for Jay Bruce, he lead the national league in both home runs and RBI, and in the time since he has hit .183/.262/.290 with six extra base hits and six RBI. The Mets got him hoping he could bolster the offense while an injured Yoenis Cespedes and deeply slumping Curtis Granderson recharged their batteries. Needless to say, it didn’t work out that way.

Jay Bruce has made his living off of consistently well hit line drives, averaging about 94 mph exit velocity, and tending to hit them towards the right field gap area of the field more so than towards the line like a true pull hitter. He tends to hit the ball very hard, launching it on 17 to 34 degree angle, right towards the right center field gap. In Great American Ball Park, where the right center gap is only 370 feet and the ball tends to fly, that is a pretty valuable trait. However, in the NL east, which tends to have deeper right center fields (Citi Field is 380), this might not be quite as valuable.

In the past few weeks, during the time in which Bruce has struggled mightily, it might be distressing to learn his batted ball profile has not significantly changed. He is hitting more opposite field fly balls, which is bad, but otherwise he is hitting roughly the same number of ground balls and line drives with very similar exit velocities and distributions.

If he continues to hit this way down the stretch, expect him to produce:

Expected down the Stretch: .224/.293/.347

xStats to date: .245/.302/.450

Actual Stats to date: .248/.304/.505

 

With these three batters, batted ball quality and xStats tell us three different stories.  Bryce Harper seems to be making the same contact now as he has been all season.  Slumps and hot streaks come and go, but overall he’s right where you’d expect him to be.  Jason Heyward appears to be making genuinely superior contact lately, although not in a manner that has been historically conducive to success given his personal skill set.  If he continues this way, he’ll have an increase in performance, but in all likelihood the changes we observe are a mirage caused by a small sample size.  Finally, Jay Bruce appears like he could dramatically under perform his season numbers going down the stretch. As I wrote earlier in the season, he may have benefited from some good luck along the way with the Reds.  Well, it appears his luck may have worn out, and he has come back down to earth.  His game production matches his batted ball quality, and that definitely is not a good thing.