Haren Getting Hosed

Over his five full campaigns as a major league starter, Dan Haren has averaged 5.1 Wins Above Replacement per season. During the past three calendar years, Haren’s 14 WAR rank behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. The 29 year-old D-Backs ace combines power and precision, relying heavily upon high-80’s cutters, high-70’s curves and mid 80’s splitters that make Mark Grace swoon. And, with affordable salaries for the next four seasons ($8.25M this year, $12.75M each in 2011-2012, $15.5M club option for 2013), Haren’s a bargain, too.

At first blush, something appears off in Haren’s 2010 performance. In 59.2 innings pitched, the former Cardinal and Athletic has a mediocre 4.83 ERA. That’s his highest mark since he cut his teeth as a rookie with St. Louis back in 2003. Is Haren slumping? In a word, no.

In his first nine starts of the year, the righty has punched out a career-best 9.35 batters per nine innings. He’s not quite showing the Greg Maddux-esque walk rate from 2009 (1.49 BB/9), but issuing 2.26 free passes per nine frames is superb nonetheless.

Going to his cutter (31 percent) and splitter (19 percent) more often this season, Haren has induced swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 36 percent of the time. That’s the best mark of his big league tenure and tops all MLB starters logging at least 30 innings pitched.

Haren is also missing more lumber than ever: opponents have made contact with 84.6% of his in-zone pitches (88.2% MLB average) and 73.9% of his offerings overall (80.9% MLB average). Those are the lowest Z-Contact and Contact rates of Haren’s career. His in-zone contact rate is one of the 15 lowest among starters, and the overall contact rate sits in the top five.

So, why the high ERA? Haren is getting hosed by a .357 batting average on balls in play (.302 career). He has been unlucky in terms of stranding base runners and surrendering home runs on fly balls as well. Haren’s left on base rate in 2010 is 66.9, compared to a 73.1% career average, and his home run/fly ball rate is 13.1% (10.8% career average).

Haren has been his usual, filthy self–his 3.21 expected FIP (xFIP) ranks 7th among starters, trailing just Lincecum, Halladay, James Shields, Lee, Josh Johnson and Ricky Romero. Some misfortune on balls put in play, a lower-than-usual strand rate and a couple extra round-trippers have obscured another fantastic season. Don’t worry about Haren–he’s just fine. Now, about that bullpen..